Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $78.0B
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
MPC · US
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +4.2% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $149.13 – $256.18 · fair‑value band $80.06 – $209.24 · the $248.52 price screens above the $135.74 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) currently trades at $248.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $135.74 — implying the stock looks roughly 45.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 83/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Marathon Petroleum Corporation generated revenue of $136B at a net margin of 3.4%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.5%. Net debt stands at $30.7B. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through l…
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of $133B in FY2025 versus $120B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding −19.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
- Top 10 contributors to S&P 500 earnings growth
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock After 366% Five-Year Run Is There Value Left?
- Why the Market Dipped But Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Gained Today
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher After Analyst Target Increases
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others) — not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.