Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Indian Oil Corporation Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹50.90 – ₹184.65 · fair‑value band ₹147.73 – ₹306.79 · the ₹136.53 price screens below the ₹231.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Indian Oil Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil, gas, petrochemicals, and alternative energy source businesses in India and internationally. It operates through Sale of Petroleum Products, Sale of Petrochemicals, Sale of Gas, and Other segments.
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Indian Oil Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil, gas, petrochemicals, and alternative energy source businesses in India and internationally. It operates through Sale of Petroleum Products, Sale of Petrochemicals, Sale of Gas, and Other segments. The company is involved in the refining of petroleum products; exploration and production of crude oil and gas; explosives and cryogenic businesses; pipeline transportation of crude oil, petroleum, and gas; petrochemicals and gasoline; gas and LPG marketing; research and development; city gas distribution; and downstream operations. It also engages in low carbon, new, clean, and green energy businesses; lube blending; marketing of lubricants and base oil; participation in the shale gas asset project; crude oil trading; import and export of petroleum products; investment in E&P assets, battery technology, and alternative energy technology companies; and wind mill and solar power generation. In addition, the company provides terminalling, retailing, aviation refueling, and bunkering; and financial services, as well as operates fuel stations. It serves motorists, households, businesses, society, suppliers, business partners, and the sports industry. The company was formerly known as Indian Oil Company Limited and changed its name to Indian Oil Corporation Limited in September 1964. Indian Oil Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1959 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Stock analysis
Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) currently trades at ₹136.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹231.97, implying the stock looks roughly 41.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹544.79 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹136.53 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹104.15, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹147.73 (bear) to ₹306.79 (bull), the price of ₹136.53 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Indian Oil Corporation Limited reported revenue of ₹7.8T in FY2026 versus ₹5.9T in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹421B in FY2026, compounding +13.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.9T (≈ $19.6B) · P/E ratio 4.4 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) ₹30.71 · Dividend yield 7.3% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 21.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at 70%, IOC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹147.73Fair Value ₹231.97Bull ₹306.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹9.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 13%, steady
Profit margin 2002 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 210% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Indian Oil Corporation Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+72% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Is Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹231.97 versus a price of ₹136.53, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IOC?
Our model-based fair value for Indian Oil Corporation Limited is ₹231.97 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹136.53.
What is the quality score of IOC?
Indian Oil Corporation Limited has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹231.97 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹147.73, optimistic scenario ₹306.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Indian Oil Corporation Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹231.97, about +70% upside versus a price of ₹136.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹147.73, optimistic scenario ₹306.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
Indian Oil Corporation Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹7.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Indian Oil Corporation Limited pay a dividend?
Indian Oil Corporation Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Indian Oil Corporation Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -7.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IOC use?
Our models discount Indian Oil Corporation Limited at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Indian Oil Corporation Limited that is -7.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Indian Oil Corporation Limited grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies -7.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Indian Oil Corporation Limited (-7.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.13 %: that much free cash flow Indian Oil Corporation Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Indian Oil Corporation Limited it is ₹231.97 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ₹136.53. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Indian Oil Corporation Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, IOC trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹136.53, fair value ₹231.97, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IOC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹136.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹231.97). For Indian Oil Corporation Limited the two are ₹95.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Indian Oil Corporation Limited worth?
The market values Indian Oil Corporation Limited at about ₹1.9T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ₹136.53; our models calculate a fair value of ₹231.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IOC?
Our models span a range for Indian Oil Corporation Limited: cautious scenario ₹147.73, base ₹231.97, optimistic ₹306.79 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ₹136.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IOC?
Indian Oil Corporation Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.4 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹231.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Indian Oil Corporation Limited (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 21.0%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IOC from its 52-week high?
Indian Oil Corporation Limited trades at ₹136.53, about 27% below its 52-week high of ₹186.61 and 7% above the low of ₹127.96 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹231.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Indian Oil Corporation Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Indian Oil Corporation Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ₹136.53, calculated fair value ₹231.97 (+70%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IOC calculated?
We run Indian Oil Corporation Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹231.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Indian Oil Corporation Limited currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was ₹136.53. Our model-based fair value is ₹231.97, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Indian Oil Corporation Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹147.73). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹147.73 to ₹306.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) come from?
Earnings per share at Indian Oil Corporation Limited grew +11.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Indian Oil Corporation Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
The market capitalisation of Indian Oil Corporation Limited is ₹1.9T (≈ $19.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Indian Oil Corporation Limited is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
Earnings per share at Indian Oil Corporation Limited are ₹30.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
The dividend yield of Indian Oil Corporation Limited is 7.3% (payout 32.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
The net margin of Indian Oil Corporation Limited is 5.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Indian Oil Corporation Limited is 21.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Indian Oil Corporation Limited is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
The operating margin of Indian Oil Corporation Limited is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
Revenue at Indian Oil Corporation Limited is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC)?
Earnings per share at Indian Oil Corporation Limited are growing +78.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) carry?
The net debt of Indian Oil Corporation Limited is ₹1.3T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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