Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Eneos Holdings Inc $18.01, price $20.00, upside -10.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.42 – $20.00 · fair‑value band $13.65 – $22.51 · the $20.00 price screens above the $18.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ENEOS Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, oil and natural gas exploration and production, and metals businesses in Japan, China, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Petroleum Products, Oil and Natural Gas E&P, High Performance Materials, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Other Segments.
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ENEOS Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, oil and natural gas exploration and production, and metals businesses in Japan, China, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Petroleum Products, Oil and Natural Gas E&P, High Performance Materials, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Other Segments. The Petroleum Products segment offers petroleum refining & marketing, basic chemical products, lubricants, gas, and hydrogen. The Oil and Natural Gas E&P provides oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production, carbon dioxide capture, transport, storage, and utilization. The High-Performance Materials segment provides synthetic rubber, special synthetic rubber, secondary buttery materials, emulsion, thermoplastic elastomer, high functional monomer, and high functional polymer. The Electricity segment offers power generation business, procurement and sale of electricity, city gas, overseas renewable energy, and VPP. The Renewable Energy segment provides wind power generation, solar power generation, and biomass power generation. The Other segment offers asphalt paving, civil engineering work, construction work, real estate leasing business, and fund procurement. Additionally, it engages in the asphalt paving, civil engineering, construction, land transportation; rail transportation of oil products; and real estate leasing, sale and purchase, and management. ENEOS Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Eneos Holdings Inc ADR (JXHLY) currently trades at $20.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.01, implying the stock looks roughly 11.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $21.14 per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the $20.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.26, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.65 (bear) to $22.51 (bull), the price of $20.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Eneos Holdings Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥12.5T in FY2026 versus ¥10.9T in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥274B in FY2026, compounding −15.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $27.0B · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) $1.20 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −10%, JXHLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.65Fair Value $18.01Bull $22.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.9% a year for the price and −3.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Is Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.01 versus a price of $20.00, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of JXHLY?
Our model-based fair value for Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is $18.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.00.
What is the quality score of JXHLY?
Eneos Holdings Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.65, optimistic scenario $22.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eneos Holdings Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.01, about −10% upside versus a price of $20.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $13.65, optimistic scenario $22.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
Eneos Holdings Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥11.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Eneos Holdings Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Eneos Holdings Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Eneos Holdings Inc ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -0.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JXHLY use?
Our models discount Eneos Holdings Inc ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Eneos Holdings Inc ADR that is -0.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Eneos Holdings Inc ADR grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies -0.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Eneos Holdings Inc ADR (-0.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.43 %: that much free cash flow Eneos Holdings Inc ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eneos Holdings Inc ADR it is $18.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $20.00. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Eneos Holdings Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, JXHLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.00, fair value $18.01, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JXHLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.01). For Eneos Holdings Inc ADR the two are $1.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eneos Holdings Inc ADR worth?
The market values Eneos Holdings Inc ADR at about $27.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $20.00; our models calculate a fair value of $18.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JXHLY?
Our models span a range for Eneos Holdings Inc ADR: cautious scenario $13.65, base $18.01, optimistic $22.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $20.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JXHLY?
Eneos Holdings Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Eneos Holdings Inc ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JXHLY from its 52-week high?
Eneos Holdings Inc ADR trades at $20.00, at its 52-week high of $20.00 and 68% above the low of $11.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eneos Holdings Inc ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eneos Holdings Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $20.00, calculated fair value $18.01 (−10%), Quality Score 62/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JXHLY calculated?
We run Eneos Holdings Inc ADR through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Eneos Holdings Inc ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $20.00. Our model-based fair value is $18.01, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eneos Holdings Inc ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
The market capitalisation of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is $27.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is 0.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
Earnings per share at Eneos Holdings Inc ADR are $1.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
The dividend yield of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is 2.4% (payout 40.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
The net margin of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is 2.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
The operating margin of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
Revenue at Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is growing −7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY)?
Earnings per share at Eneos Holdings Inc ADR are growing −35.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Eneos Holdings Inc (JXHLY) carry?
The net debt of Eneos Holdings Inc ADR is ¥1.7T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026