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Metcash Limited (MTS) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$3.3B

ML Metcash Limited MTS · AU
PriceA$3.03
Fair ValueA$5.41
Upside+78.5%
Quality95/100
Evidence: High Range A$3.67 – A$6.76

Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price −2.9% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

A$4.16 A$2.68 Fair Value A$5.41 Jun 2025 Jun 2026

12‑month range A$2.68 – A$4.16 · fair‑value band A$3.67 – A$6.76 · the A$3.03 price screens below the A$5.41 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Metcash Limited (MTS) currently trades at A$3.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.41 — implying the stock looks roughly 78.5% undervalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Metcash Limited generated revenue of A$17.3B at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.5%. Net debt stands at A$1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$17.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.1%
Net margin 1.6%
Return on equity 17.5%
Free cash flow A$391M FY2025
P/E ratio 11.7
More key figures
Operating margin 2.6%
EPS (TTM) A$0.2600
Dividend yield 5.9%
Net debt A$1.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

About the company

Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers. The Liquor segment engages in the distribution of liquor products to independent retail outlets and hotels. The Hardware segment distributes hardware products to independent retail outlets; and operates company owned retail stores. It sells its products under the IGA, Foodland, Mitre 10, Home Hardware, Total Tools, Cellarbrations, IGA Liquor, and the Bottle-O brand names. Metcash Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Macquarie Park, Australia.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Metcash Limited reported revenue of A$17.3B in FY2025 versus A$14.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$283M in FY2025, compounding +4.3%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +4.9%/yr
FY21 A$14.3B
FY22 A$15.2B
FY23 A$15.8B
FY24 A$15.9B
FY25 A$17.3B
Net income +4.3%/yr
FY21 A$239M
FY22 A$245M
FY23 A$259M
FY24 A$257M
FY25 A$283M

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6 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 24, 2026).

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Sysco Corporation SYY $78.54 $39.26 -50%
US Foods Holding USFD $90.18 $48.56 -46%
Performance Food Group PFGC $102.61 $49.97 -51%
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JRONF $23.70 $25.72 +9%
Bunzl plc BZLFY $16.51 $14.69 -11%
Bid Corporation BPPPF $25.49 $17.09 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Metcash Limited (MTS) undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$5.41 versus a price of A$3.03 — about +79% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of MTS?
Our 21-model fair value for Metcash Limited is A$5.41 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$3.03.
What is the quality score of MTS?
Metcash Limited has a Quality Score of 95/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Metcash Limited (MTS)?
Metcash Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$17.3B (latest available figure, as of Jun 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MTS?
The net profit margin of Metcash Limited is about 1.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Metcash Limited pay a dividend?
Metcash Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.94% relative to its recent price (as of Jun 24, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.