US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what US Foods Holding Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $21.8B · ISIN US9120081099
At a glance
UFUS Foods Holding CorpUSFD · US
Price$103.09
Fair Value$53.53
Upside−48.1%
Quality64/100
A solid business, but trading 93% above our fair value of $53.53.
As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of US Foods Holding Corp is $53.53 per share against a price of $103.09, so the fair value sits 48% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 14 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange $28.03 to $80.58
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Share price −5.3% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($80.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The model range is unusually wide ($28.03 to $80.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.41 – $110.94 · fair‑value band $28.03 – $80.58 · the $103.09 price screens above the $53.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) currently trades at $103.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $53.53, implying the stock looks roughly 92.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $55.52 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $103.09 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.10, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, US Foods Holding Corp generated revenue of $39.7B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.1%. Net debt stands at $5.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Scenario range: $28.03 (bear) to $80.58 (bull), the price of $103.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −48%, USFD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.05 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio34.7
P/S ratio0.60P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$2.97price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.7
Net margin1.7%FY2025
Return on equity15.1%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)6.6%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin2.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$39.7BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+2.8%3y avg +5.0%
EPS growth (YoY)+6.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$959MFY2025
Net debt$5.7BFY2025 · ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality64/100
Of which business quality 61
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Profitability62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance89
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
US Foods Holding Corp., together with its subsidiaries, markets, sells, and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company also provides MOXe, an all-in-one foodservice business application.
Full company description
US Foods Holding Corp., together with its subsidiaries, markets, sells, and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company also provides MOXe, an all-in-one foodservice business application. Its customers include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities, and retail locations. The company was formerly known as USF Holding Corp. and changed its name to US Foods Holding Corp. in February 2016. US Foods Holding Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
US Foods Holding Corp reported revenue of $39.4B in FY2025 versus $29.5B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $676M in FY2025, compounding +42.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Growth Quality 84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$39.4B
Latest YoY
+4.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+18.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+18.8%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 18.8% vs 10Y 11.1%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−0.3% (2020) → 3.1% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop148% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
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How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−49% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)34.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.07× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.55× · Pricier than median
P/FCF22.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.24× · Cheapest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must US Foods Holding Corp deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 15
FUTURE14· sector 12
PAST61· sector 32
HEALTH41· sector 94
DIVIDEND0· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
Is US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $53.53 versus a price of $103.09, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of USFD?
Our model-based fair value for US Foods Holding Corp is $53.53 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $103.09.
What is the quality score of USFD?
US Foods Holding Corp has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $53.53 (as of Aug 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.03, optimistic scenario $80.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the US Foods Holding Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $53.53, about −48% upside versus a price of $103.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.03, optimistic scenario $80.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
US Foods Holding Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of USFD?
The net profit margin of US Foods Holding Corp is about 1.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, US Foods Holding Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +11.2 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.8 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Aug 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of USFD use?
Our models discount US Foods Holding Corp at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For US Foods Holding Corp it is $53.53 per share (as of Aug 29, 2026), against a price of $103.09. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is US Foods Holding Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 29, 2026, USFD trades above its calculated fair value: price $103.09, fair value $53.53, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of USFD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($103.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($53.53). For US Foods Holding Corp the two are $49.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is US Foods Holding Corp worth?
The market values US Foods Holding Corp at about $21.8B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 29, 2026). Per share that is $103.09; our models calculate a fair value of $53.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about USFD?
Our models span a range for US Foods Holding Corp: cautious scenario $28.03, base $53.53, optimistic $80.58 per share (as of Aug 29, 2026, price $103.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of USFD?
US Foods Holding Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.7 (as of Aug 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $53.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 5.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of USFD?
The PEG ratio of US Foods Holding Corp is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Balance-sheet figures for US Foods Holding Corp (as of Aug 29, 2026): return on equity 15.1%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is USFD from its 52-week high?
US Foods Holding Corp trades at $103.09, about 1% below its 52-week high of $102.13 and 48% above the low of $69.88 (as of Aug 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $53.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to US Foods Holding Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, CP Axtra Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is US Foods Holding Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 29, 2026: price $103.09, calculated fair value $53.53 (−48%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of USFD calculated?
We run US Foods Holding Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $53.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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US Foods Holding Corp
USFD · US