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Data-driven stock valuation

US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what US Foods Holding Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $21.8B · ISIN US9120081099

At a glance

UF US Foods Holding Corp logo US Foods Holding Corp USFD · US
Price$103.09
Fair Value$53.53
Upside−48.1%
Quality64/100

A solid business, but trading 93% above our fair value of $53.53.

As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of US Foods Holding Corp is $53.53 per share against a price of $103.09, so the fair value sits 48% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 14 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $28.03 to $80.58

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 11 days ago

Share price −5.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($80.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($28.03 to $80.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$110.94 $26.41 Fair Value $53.53 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $26.41 – $110.94 · fair‑value band $28.03 – $80.58 · the $103.09 price screens above the $53.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) currently trades at $103.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $53.53, implying the stock looks roughly 92.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $55.52 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $103.09 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.10, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, US Foods Holding Corp generated revenue of $39.7B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.1%. Net debt stands at $5.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Scenario range: $28.03 (bear) to $80.58 (bull), the price of $103.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −48%, USFD screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.05 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $25.62 $50.76 $88.29 77
Growth DCF $26.65 $49.24 $81.12 76
EPV $20.87 $28.15 $34.52 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $25.62 $50.76 $88.29 77
Owner Earnings $13.96 $33.04 $61.53 72
5Y Revenue Exit $25.53 $53.62 $89.04 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $37.24 $75.18 $118.84 73
5Y P/E Exit $21.98 $47.09 $72.87 69
10Y Revenue Exit $23.58 $49.07 $82.38 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $32.52 $63.91 $104.78 66
10Y P/E Exit $22.86 $44.58 $70.21 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $20.87 $59.73 $78.74 65
Lynch FV $12.25 $17.50 $22.75 61
PEG = 1.0 $12.25 $17.50 $22.75 57
EPV $20.87 $28.15 $34.52 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $48.35 $64.46 $80.58 63
P/S Multiple $39.14 $52.18 $65.23 58
P/B Multiple $39.14 $52.18 $65.23 55
EV/EBIT $48.52 $72.30 $96.08 65
EV/EBITDA $52.20 $77.19 $102.19 66
EV/Revenue $28.10 $49.92 $71.74 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.78 $13.10 $19.56 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $26.65 $49.24 $81.12 76
Rev-Margin DCF $25.53 $53.78 $85.53 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $20.34 $26.65 $75.30 66
ROIC Compounder $21.19 $32.23 $45.99 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $38.86 $55.52 $72.17 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($55.52) versus Asset-Based ($13.10). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 34.7
P/S ratio 0.60 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.97 price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.7
Net margin 1.7% FY2025
Return on equity 15.1% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 2.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $39.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.8% 3y avg +5.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +6.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $959M FY2025
Net debt $5.7B FY2025 · ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

US Foods Holding Corp., together with its subsidiaries, markets, sells, and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company also provides MOXe, an all-in-one foodservice business application.

Full company description

US Foods Holding Corp., together with its subsidiaries, markets, sells, and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company also provides MOXe, an all-in-one foodservice business application. Its customers include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities, and retail locations. The company was formerly known as USF Holding Corp. and changed its name to US Foods Holding Corp. in February 2016. US Foods Holding Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

US Foods Holding Corp reported revenue of $39.4B in FY2025 versus $29.5B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $676M in FY2025, compounding +42.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$39.4B
Latest YoY
+4.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+18.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+18.8%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 18.8% vs 10Y 11.1%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−0.3% (2020) → 3.1% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop148% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +7.5%/yr
FY21 $29.5B
FY22 $34.1B
FY23 $35.6B
FY24 $37.9B
FY25 $39.4B
Net income +42.5%/yr
FY21 $164M
FY22 $265M
FY23 $506M
FY24 $494M
FY25 $676M

USFD screens 93% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "US Foods Holding Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/USFD

Peer Group

Food Distribution · 80 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −49% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.18× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 5.07× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.55× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 22.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 15.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.24× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must US Foods Holding Corp deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+11.2 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+11.5 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price4.04 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.8 %

The price demands roughly the growth the company recently delivered. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 15
FUTURE14 · sector 12
PAST61 · sector 32
HEALTH41 · sector 94
DIVIDEND0 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sysco Corporation SYY $80.05 $59.83 −25%
Performance Food Group PFGC $107.25 $37.94 −65%
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT €18.42 €21.59 +17%
CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT 14.80 THB 17.42 THB +18%
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF $114.36 $37.27 −67%
Olam Group VC2 1.04 SGD 2.12 SGD +104%
United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI $43.62 $6.00 −86%
The Andersons, Inc ANDE $69.31 $47.78 −31%
Metcash Limited MTS A$2.98 A$5.33 +79%
Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 ¥31.47 ¥6.75 −79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $53.53 versus a price of $103.09, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of USFD?
Our model-based fair value for US Foods Holding Corp is $53.53 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $103.09.
What is the quality score of USFD?
US Foods Holding Corp has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $53.53 (as of Aug 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.03, optimistic scenario $80.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the US Foods Holding Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $53.53, about −48% upside versus a price of $103.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.03, optimistic scenario $80.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
US Foods Holding Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of USFD?
The net profit margin of US Foods Holding Corp is about 1.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, US Foods Holding Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +11.2 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.8 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Aug 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of USFD use?
Our models discount US Foods Holding Corp at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For US Foods Holding Corp it is $53.53 per share (as of Aug 29, 2026), against a price of $103.09. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is US Foods Holding Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 29, 2026, USFD trades above its calculated fair value: price $103.09, fair value $53.53, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of USFD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($103.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($53.53). For US Foods Holding Corp the two are $49.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is US Foods Holding Corp worth?
The market values US Foods Holding Corp at about $21.8B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 29, 2026). Per share that is $103.09; our models calculate a fair value of $53.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about USFD?
Our models span a range for US Foods Holding Corp: cautious scenario $28.03, base $53.53, optimistic $80.58 per share (as of Aug 29, 2026, price $103.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of USFD?
US Foods Holding Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.7 (as of Aug 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $53.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 5.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of USFD?
The PEG ratio of US Foods Holding Corp is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Balance-sheet figures for US Foods Holding Corp (as of Aug 29, 2026): return on equity 15.1%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is USFD from its 52-week high?
US Foods Holding Corp trades at $103.09, about 1% below its 52-week high of $102.13 and 48% above the low of $69.88 (as of Aug 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $53.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to US Foods Holding Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, CP Axtra Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is US Foods Holding Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 29, 2026: price $103.09, calculated fair value $53.53 (−48%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of USFD calculated?
We run US Foods Holding Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $53.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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