Performance Food Group (PFGC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $17.8B
Performance Food Group
PFGC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $45.48 to $37.94 (−16.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −0.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($27.61 to $56.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.87 – $116.65 · fair‑value band $27.61 – $56.85 · the $114.58 price screens above the $37.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Performance Food Group (PFGC) currently trades at $114.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.94, implying the stock looks roughly 66.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Performance Food Group generated revenue of $63.3B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at $7.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.61 (bear case) to $56.85 (bull case); at $114.58, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -67%, PFGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($64.73) versus Dividend Discount ($3.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty.
Full company description
Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty. The company offers beef, pork, poultry, and seafood; frozen food and refrigerated products; dry groceries comprising cleaning and kitchen supplies and disposables; candy, snacks, and beverages; and fresh products, groceries, dairy, bread, beverages, general merchandise, and health and beauty care products, as well as cigarettes and other nicotine products. It also operates distribution centers. In addition, the company provides marketing programs and technology solutions to customer locations, as well as value-added services in the areas of product selection and procurement, menu development, and operational strategy. It serves individual restaurants, national and regional chain restaurants, vending distributors, theaters, retailers, and national, regional, and independent convenience stores. Performance Food Group Company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Performance Food Group reported revenue of $63.3B in FY2025 versus $30.4B in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was $340M in FY2025, compounding +70.0%/yr from FY2021.
PFGC screens 67% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Performance Food Group Company to Host Webcast of Fourth-Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results
- 3 Reasons PFGC is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 78 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.69 | $60.58 | -26% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $99.13 | $55.10 | -44% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €17.68 | €21.59 | +22% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.90 THB | 17.04 THB | +14% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $95.79 | $37.27 | -61% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.22 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +74% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $50.19 | $6.00 | -88% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $79.24 | $47.78 | -40% |
| Metcash Limited MTS | A$2.92 | A$5.33 | +83% |
| Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 | ¥31.11 | ¥6.75 | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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