Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Performance Food Group Co stock $47.10, price $110, that is 57.1% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.87 – $116.65 · fair‑value band $32.76 – $60.84 · the $109.68 price screens above the $47.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty.
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The company offers beef, pork, poultry, and seafood; frozen food and refrigerated products; dry groceries comprising cleaning and kitchen supplies and disposables; candy, snacks, and beverages; and fresh products, groceries, dairy, bread, beverages, general merchandise, and health and beauty care products, as well as cigarettes and other nicotine products.
It also operates distribution centers. In addition, the company provides marketing programs and technology solutions to customer locations, as well as value-added services in the areas of product selection and procurement, menu development, and operational strategy.
It serves individual restaurants, national and regional chain restaurants, vending distributors, theaters, retailers, and national, regional, and independent convenience stores. Performance Food Group Company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) currently trades at $109.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.10, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $105.31 per share, and 5 of the 22 models we run sit above the $109.68 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $22.91, and 17 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $32.76 (bear) to $60.84 (bull), the price of $109.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Performance Food Group Co reported revenue of $67.8B in FY2026 versus $50.9B in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was $359M in FY2026, compounding +33.7%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $17.2B Large · P/E ratio 47.9 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $2.29 · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −57%, PFGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$32.76Fair Value $47.10Bull$60.84
Price $109.68 · Downside -57.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8093 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $27.8M and none bought.
SaleChasity D GroshOfficer4× since Feb 10, 2026: 4,329 shares, avg. $96.40$417,304Sep 30, 2026
SaleHugh Patrick HatcherOfficer2× since May 12, 2026: 6,000 shares, avg. $96.86$581,156Sep 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleA Brent KingOfficer6× since Jun 1, 2026: 30,642 shares, avg. $102.11$3.1MAug 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDonald S. BulmerOfficer11,888 shares at $105.83$1.3MAug 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleErika T DavisOfficer6× since May 27, 2026: 18,130 shares, avg. $104.36$1.9MAug 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleGeorge L HolmOfficer, Director6× since May 21, 2026: 194,131 shares, avg. $105.36$20.5MJul 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKimberly GrantDirector2,500 shares at $95.00$237,500May 20, 2026
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+29.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 34.3% / 12.6%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (78 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Integration of acquisitions and technology upgrades supports unified operations across foodservice and convenience, yet thin evidence of a durable moat leaves the business exposed in a competitive low-margin sector.
Main risk: Sysco's greater purchasing power and national scale could force Performance Food Group to lower prices or lose independent restaurant customers in overlapping markets.
Bull case: By deepening its diversification across convenience and specialty channels while rolling out AI tools for routing and sales, Performance Food Group could widen its cost and service edge over regional players and capture more share from independents.
Bear case: If Sysco leverages its scale for sustained price competition while debt servicing costs rise, Performance Food Group could see persistent margin compression and slower integration of acquisitions, eroding its position in the fragmented distribution market.
With a new CEO, Performance Food Group is emphasizing integration of recent acquisitions and technology upgrades to unify its foodservice and convenience operations. These steps build on case volume growth but face a fragmented and competitive distribution landscape. Will standardization deliver lasting efficiencies or simply add execution complexity without a clear edge?
Compare Performance Food Group Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−57.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)47.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.51× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.27× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow16.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA13.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.76× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)37· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)49· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Performance Food Group Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PFGC
Frequently asked questions
Is Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $47.10 versus a price of $109.68, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PFGC?
Our model-based fair value for Performance Food Group Co is $47.10 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $109.68.
What is the quality score of PFGC?
Performance Food Group Co has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $47.10 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $32.76, optimistic scenario $60.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Performance Food Group Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $47.10, about 57% lower versus a price of $109.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $32.76, optimistic scenario $60.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
Performance Food Group Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $64.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Performance Food Group Co would have to grow free cash flow by +8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PFGC use?
Our models discount Performance Food Group Co at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Performance Food Group Co that is +8.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Performance Food Group Co grew +17.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Performance Food Group Co (+8.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.98 %: that much free cash flow Performance Food Group Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Performance Food Group Co it is $47.10 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $109.68. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Performance Food Group Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, PFGC trades above its calculated fair value: price $109.68, fair value $47.10, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PFGC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($109.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($47.10). For Performance Food Group Co the two are $62.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Performance Food Group Co worth?
The market values Performance Food Group Co at about $17.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $109.68; our models calculate a fair value of $47.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PFGC?
Our models span a range for Performance Food Group Co: cautious scenario $32.76, base $47.10, optimistic $60.84 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $109.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PFGC?
Performance Food Group Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.9 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $47.10 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 44.8 (reported 47.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 29.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 3.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of PFGC?
The PEG ratio of Performance Food Group Co is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Performance Food Group Co (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PFGC from its 52-week high?
Performance Food Group Co trades at $109.68, about 6% below its 52-week high of $116.65 and 35% above the low of $81.03 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $47.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Performance Food Group Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, CP Axtra Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Performance Food Group Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $109.68, calculated fair value $47.10 (−57%), Quality Score 54/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PFGC calculated?
We run Performance Food Group Co through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $47.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Performance Food Group Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $109.68. Our model-based fair value is $47.10, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Performance Food Group Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($32.76 to $60.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) come from?
Earnings per share at Performance Food Group Co grew +13.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.3 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Performance Food Group Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
The market capitalisation of Performance Food Group Co is $17.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Performance Food Group Co is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
Earnings per share at Performance Food Group Co are $2.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
The net margin of Performance Food Group Co is 0.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Performance Food Group Co is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Performance Food Group Co is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
The operating margin of Performance Food Group Co is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
Revenue at Performance Food Group Co is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)?
Earnings per share at Performance Food Group Co are growing +22.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) carry?
The net debt of Performance Food Group Co is $7.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026