Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd $7.36, price $9.58, upside -23.2%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.76 – $13.05 · fair‑value band $6.72 – $10.56 · the $9.58 price screens above the $7.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. operates as a real estate company in Japan. It operates through five segments: Leasing, Property Sales, Management, Facility Operations, and Other. The Leasing segment leases office buildings and retail facilities, and other properties.
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Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. operates as a real estate company in Japan. It operates through five segments: Leasing, Property Sales, Management, Facility Operations, and Other. The Leasing segment leases office buildings and retail facilities, and other properties. The Property Sales segment is involved in the sale of condominiums and detached housing to individuals; and rental housing and office buildings and other to investors. The Management segment engages in the property management and brokerage and asset management businesses. The Facility Operations segment is involved in the hotels and resorts, and sports and entertainment businesses. The Other segment engages in the new construction under consignment. The company was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF) currently trades at $9.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.36, implying the stock looks roughly 30.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $6.72 (bear) to $10.56 (bull), the price of $9.58 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.7T in FY2026 versus ¥2.1T in FY2022, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥280B in FY2026, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $25.3B · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) $0.6300 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −23%, MTSFF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.72Fair Value $7.36Bull $10.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 130 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−23.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)13.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.09× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.36 versus a price of $9.58, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTSFF?
Our model-based fair value for Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is $7.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.58.
What is the quality score of MTSFF?
Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.72, optimistic scenario $10.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.36, about −23% upside versus a price of $9.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.72, optimistic scenario $10.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.7T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd it is $7.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $9.58. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MTSFF trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.58, fair value $7.36, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTSFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.36). For Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd the two are $2.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd at about $25.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $9.58; our models calculate a fair value of $7.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTSFF?
Our models span a range for Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $6.72, base $7.36, optimistic $10.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $9.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTSFF?
Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 13.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MTSFF?
The PEG ratio of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is 1.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 1.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTSFF from its 52-week high?
Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd trades at $9.58, about 27% below its 52-week high of $13.05 and 10% above the low of $8.70 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $9.58, calculated fair value $7.36 (−23%), Quality Score 44/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTSFF calculated?
We run Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $9.58. Our model-based fair value is $7.36, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF) come from?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd grew +14.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
The market capitalisation of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is $25.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is 1.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd are $0.6300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
The dividend yield of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is 2.5% (payout 38.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
The net margin of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is 10.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
The operating margin of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
Revenue at Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is growing +22.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd are growing +22.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF) generate?
The free cash flow of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is −¥91.7B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd (MTSFF) carry?
The net debt of Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd is ¥4.6T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026