Henderson Land (HLDVF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Henderson Land $2.53, price $3.23, upside -21.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Henderson Land
HLDVF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.13 – $4.59 · fair‑value band $1.90 – $3.16 · the $3.23 price screens above the $2.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
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Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company operates through Property Development, Property Leasing, Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations, Hotel Room Operation, Other Businesses, and Utility and Energy segments. The Property Development segment develops and sells real estate properties. Its property portfolio primarily includes offices, shopping arcades, and shopping malls. The Property Leasing segment leases properties. The Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations segment operates and manages department stores and supermarket-cum-stores. The Hotel Room Operation segment operates hotel properties. The Other Businesses segment manages hotels; provides construction, finance, project management, property management, agency, and cleaning and security guard services, as well as the trading of building materials. It engages in food and beverage, and travel operations. The Utility and Energy segment is involved in production, distribution, and marketing gas; and water supply and renewable energy businesses. Henderson Land Development Company Limited was founded in 1976 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Henderson Land Development Company Limited is a subsidiary of Henderson Development Limited.
Stock analysis
Henderson Land (HLDVF) currently trades at $3.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.53, 21.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $5.69 per share, and 2 of the 14 models we run sit above the $3.23 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.01, and 12 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.90 (bear) to $3.16 (bull), the price of $3.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Henderson Land reported revenue of HK$25.7B in FY2025 versus HK$23.9B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.7B in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.9B · P/E ratio 21.5 · P/S ratio 4.73 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −22%, HLDVF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 14 models by family
Notify me when HLDVF reaches fair value
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
HLDVF screens overvalued: fair value 22% below the price. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Earlier news
- Henderson Land Development (SEHK:12) Could Be 53% Overvalued On Its Recent Share Price Slide
- Cyannova Capital Participates in DeepZero’s IPO With Henderson Land Group Chairman’s Family Office
- Does Henderson Land Still Offer Value After Its Strong 25% Rebound in 2024?
- Henderson Land upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Compare Henderson Land with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 130 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 119.10 | CHF 44.83 | −62% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 63.00 THB | 71.37 THB | +13% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹1,978 | ₹405.25 | −80% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,478 | ₹297.85 | −80% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 17.15 SAR | 15.41 SAR | −10% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.69 | ¥0.7900 | −71% |
| Allreal Holding ALLN | CHF 193.00 | CHF 84.23 | −56% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,630 CLP | 3,708 CLP | +2% |
| The St. Joe Company JOE | $66.01 | $34.53 | −48% |
| Singapore Land Group U06 | 3.09 SGD | 3.18 SGD | +3% |
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Frequently asked questions
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Key figures of Henderson Land
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