Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of SM Prime Holdings $0.67, price $0.27, upside +150.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ISIN PHY8076N1120

Thin data Oct 3, 2026

SM Prime Holdings

SPHXF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $0.6680 · Strongly undervalued (+150.0%)

!Quality 48/100

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 34.5% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

✓Wide moat 69/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $0.3440 to bull $1.11 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 48/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.2672 – $0.6978 · fair‑value band $0.3440 – $1.11 · the $0.2672 price screens below the $0.6680 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

SM Prime Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates, maintains, and leases commercial shopping malls in the Philippines and China. It operates in four segments: Mall; Residential; Commercial and Integrated Property Developments; and Hotels and Convention Centers. The company also operates, maintains, and rents shopping spaces, amusement centers, and cinema theaters. In addition, it is involved in the owning, development, and sale of condominium units, and leisure and resorts; development, operations, management, and leasing of office buildings and land; and development and management of hotels and convention centers properties. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is based in Pasay City, the Philippines. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of SM Investments Corporation.

Stock analysis

SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF) currently trades at $0.2672, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6680, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.6000 per share, and 12 of the 16 models we run sit above the $0.2672 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.1200, and 4 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.3440 (bear) to $1.11 (bull), the price of $0.2672 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

SM Prime Holdings reported revenue of 141B PHP in FY2025 versus 82.3B PHP in FY2021, a compound +14.3%/yr. Reported net income was 48.7B PHP in FY2025, compounding +22.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $13.1B · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 3.08 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin 34.6% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% · Operating margin 50.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 150%, SPHXF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3440 Fair Value $0.6680 Bull $1.11

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0227 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $0.3100 $0.6000 $1.03 77

Growth DCF $0.3200 $0.5900 $1.00 76

Residual Income $0.2300 $0.2500 $0.3300 76

All 16 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $0.3100 $0.6000 $1.03 77

5Y Revenue Exit $0.2300 $0.4600 $0.7600 70

5Y EBITDA Exit $0.3600 $0.7200 $1.15 73

10Y Revenue Exit $0.2400 $0.4600 $0.7700 64

10Y EBITDA Exit $0.3400 $0.6400 $1.06 66

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $0.0700 $0.1300 $0.2000 67

DDM Multi-Stage $0.0700 $0.1200 $0.1400 67

Multiples

P/S Multiple $0.3500 $0.4600 $0.5800 58

P/B Multiple $0.3500 $0.4600 $0.5800 55

EV/EBIT $0.4900 $0.7100 $0.9300 65

EV/EBITDA $0.4500 $0.6600 $0.8700 66

EV/Revenue $0.2000 $0.3500 $0.5100 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.1300 $0.1700 $0.2600 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $0.3200 $0.5900 $1.00 76

Rev-Margin DCF $0.2300 $0.4600 $0.7300 70

Economic Profit

Residual Income $0.2300 $0.2500 $0.3300 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 40

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 43

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 89

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 39

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 73

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 0

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 29

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 0

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 89/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+0.2%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+10.0%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+11.4%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year

Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.3%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

+5.7%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.7% vs 1.9%, picking up

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations

The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+5.3%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+4.6%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in PHP, Philippines: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 3.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.9% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.8%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.7%

Projected 2028 (sales)+5.2%

Projected 2029 (sales)+4.8%

Projected 2030 (sales)+4.3%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 130 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 50 · Below median

Fair Value upside −6.5% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 10.7% · Top 25%

Return on assets 4.2% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 34.5% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 50.3% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 1.5% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.70× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.9× · Cheaper than median

P/B 1.08× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 3.54× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 9.2× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN	CHF 119.10	CHF 44.83	−62%
Central Pattana Public Company CPN	63.00 THB	71.37 THB	+13%
The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD	₹1,978	₹405.25	−80%
Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE	₹1,478	₹297.85	−80%
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325	17.15 SAR	15.41 SAR	−10%
Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515	¥2.69	¥0.7900	−71%
Allreal Holding ALLN	CHF 193.00	CHF 84.23	−56%
Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO	3,630 CLP	3,708 CLP	+2%
The St. Joe Company JOE	$66.01	$34.53	−48%
Singapore Land Group U06	3.09 SGD	3.18 SGD	+3%

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SM Prime Holdings · Fair Value
$0.6680 +60%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPHXF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">SM Prime Holdings · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$0.6680</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+60%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SM Prime Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPHXF

Frequently asked questions

Is SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6680 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.2672, about +150% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of SPHXF?

Our model-based fair value for SM Prime Holdings is $0.6680 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.2672.

What is the quality score of SPHXF?

SM Prime Holdings has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6680 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3440, optimistic scenario $1.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the SM Prime Holdings stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $0.6680, about +150% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.2672 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.3440, optimistic scenario $1.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

SM Prime Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 142B PHP (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).

What growth is priced into SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SM Prime Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPHXF use?

Our models discount SM Prime Holdings at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SM Prime Holdings that is +5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at SM Prime Holdings grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SM Prime Holdings (+5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.87 %: that much free cash flow SM Prime Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SM Prime Holdings it is $0.6680 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $0.2672. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is SM Prime Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 3, 2026, SPHXF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2672, fair value $0.6680, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of SPHXF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2672); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6680). For SM Prime Holdings the two are $0.4008 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is SM Prime Holdings worth?

The market values SM Prime Holdings at about $13.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $0.2672; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6680 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPHXF?

Our models span a range for SM Prime Holdings: cautious scenario $0.3440, base $0.6680, optimistic $1.11 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $0.2672). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of SPHXF?

SM Prime Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6680 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 9.2.

How solid is the balance sheet of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

Balance-sheet figures for SM Prime Holdings (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is SPHXF from its 52-week high?

SM Prime Holdings trades at $0.2672, about 36% below its 52-week high of $0.4169 and at the low of $0.2672 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6680 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to SM Prime Holdings?

From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is SM Prime Holdings stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $0.2672, calculated fair value $0.6680 (+150%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of SPHXF calculated?

We run SM Prime Holdings through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6680, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SM Prime Holdings currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.2672. Our model-based fair value is $0.6680, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with SM Prime Holdings right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.3440). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($0.3440 to $1.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Where does the earnings growth of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF) come from?

Earnings per share at SM Prime Holdings grew +4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of SM Prime Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

The market capitalisation of SM Prime Holdings is $13.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of SM Prime Holdings is 3.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

Earnings per share at SM Prime Holdings are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

The net margin of SM Prime Holdings is 34.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of SM Prime Holdings is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SM Prime Holdings is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

The operating margin of SM Prime Holdings is 50.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

Revenue at SM Prime Holdings is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF)?

Earnings per share at SM Prime Holdings are growing +0.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does SM Prime Holdings (SPHXF) carry?

The net debt of SM Prime Holdings is 418B PHP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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