Novabase SGPS (NBA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Novabase SGPS stock €2.42, price €7.10, that is 65.9% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.49 – €9.04 · fair‑value band €1.81 – €3.39 · the €7.10 price screens above the €2.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Novabase S.G.P.S., S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides IT consulting and services in Portugal, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Next-Gen and Value Portfolio.
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The Next-Gen segment develops IT consulting and services to banks, insurance, capital markets, and telecommunication industries under the Celfocus brand names. The Value Portfolio segment is involved in venture capital activities.
Novabase S.G.P.S., S.A. was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal
Stock analysis
Novabase SGPS (NBA) currently trades at €7.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.42, 66% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €6.43 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €7.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.5800, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €1.81 (bear) to €3.39 (bull), the price of €7.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Novabase SGPS reported revenue of €124M in FY2025 versus €139M in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was €5.5M in FY2025, compounding −10.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €268M Micro · P/E ratio 35.5 · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) €0.2000 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 21.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −66%, NBA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€1.81Fair Value €2.42Bull€3.39
Price €7.10 · Downside -65.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 517 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−65.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novabase SGPS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NBA
Frequently asked questions
Is Novabase SGPS (NBA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.42 versus a price of €7.10, about 66% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NBA?
Our model-based fair value for Novabase SGPS is €2.42 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.10.
What is the quality score of NBA?
Novabase SGPS has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.42 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.81, optimistic scenario €3.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novabase SGPS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.42, about 66% lower versus a price of €7.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.81, optimistic scenario €3.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Novabase SGPS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €124M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Novabase SGPS pay a dividend?
Novabase SGPS currently shows a dividend yield of 5.63% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Novabase SGPS pays a dividend of €0.4 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.6%. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 200% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.41 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Novabase SGPS would have to grow free cash flow by +29.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NBA use?
Our models discount Novabase SGPS at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Novabase SGPS that is +29.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Novabase SGPS (NBA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Novabase SGPS grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +29.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Novabase SGPS (NBA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Novabase SGPS (+29.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.32 %: that much free cash flow Novabase SGPS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novabase SGPS it is €2.42 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €7.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Novabase SGPS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NBA trades above its calculated fair value: price €7.10, fair value €2.42, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NBA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.42). For Novabase SGPS the two are €4.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novabase SGPS worth?
The market values Novabase SGPS at about €268M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €7.10; our models calculate a fair value of €2.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NBA?
Our models span a range for Novabase SGPS: cautious scenario €1.81, base €2.42, optimistic €3.39 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €7.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NBA?
Novabase SGPS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 5.3, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 39.2.
What is the PEG ratio of NBA?
The PEG ratio of Novabase SGPS is 0.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novabase SGPS (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 21.4%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NBA from its 52-week high?
Novabase SGPS trades at €7.10, about 21% below its 52-week high of €9.04 and 3% above the low of €6.90 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novabase SGPS?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novabase SGPS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €7.10, calculated fair value €2.42 (−66%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NBA calculated?
We run Novabase SGPS through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €2.42 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Novabase SGPS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was €7.10. Our model-based fair value is €2.42, about 66% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novabase SGPS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€1.81 to €3.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Novabase SGPS
How large is the market capitalisation of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The market capitalisation of Novabase SGPS is €268M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novabase SGPS is 1.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Earnings per share at Novabase SGPS are €0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The dividend yield of Novabase SGPS is 5.6% (payout 200%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The net margin of Novabase SGPS is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novabase SGPS is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novabase SGPS is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The operating margin of Novabase SGPS is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Revenue at Novabase SGPS is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Earnings per share at Novabase SGPS are growing −50.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026