Novabase SGPS (NBA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Novabase SGPS €3.06, price €7.14, upside -57.1%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.31 – €9.04 · fair‑value band €2.56 – €3.97 · the €7.14 price screens above the €3.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Novabase S.G.P.S., S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides IT consulting and services in Portugal, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Next-Gen and Value Portfolio.
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Novabase S.G.P.S., S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides IT consulting and services in Portugal, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Next-Gen and Value Portfolio. The Next-Gen segment develops IT consulting and services to banks, insurance, capital markets, and telecommunication industries under the Celfocus brand names. The Value Portfolio segment is involved in venture capital activities. Novabase S.G.P.S., S.A. was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal
Stock analysis
Novabase SGPS (NBA) currently trades at €7.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.06, implying the stock looks roughly 133.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €4.08 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the €7.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.9000, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.56 (bear) to €3.97 (bull), the price of €7.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Novabase SGPS reported revenue of €124M in FY2025 versus €139M in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was €5.5M in FY2025, compounding −10.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €269M · P/E ratio 28.6 · P/S ratio 1.26 · EPS (TTM) €0.2500 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 21.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 53% fair-value upside, at −57%, NBA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.56Fair Value €3.06Bull €3.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 481 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−57.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.6× · Pricier than median
P/B5.34× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.17× · Pricier than median
P/FCF43.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA25.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.32× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)86· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novabase SGPS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NBA
Frequently asked questions
Is Novabase SGPS (NBA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.06 versus a price of €7.14, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NBA?
Our model-based fair value for Novabase SGPS is €3.06 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.14.
What is the quality score of NBA?
Novabase SGPS has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.06 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.56, optimistic scenario €3.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novabase SGPS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.06, about −57% upside versus a price of €7.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.56, optimistic scenario €3.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Novabase SGPS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €124M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Novabase SGPS pay a dividend?
Novabase SGPS currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Novabase SGPS would have to grow free cash flow by +26.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NBA use?
Our models discount Novabase SGPS at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Novabase SGPS that is +26.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Novabase SGPS (NBA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Novabase SGPS grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies +26.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Novabase SGPS (NBA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Novabase SGPS (+26.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.30 %: that much free cash flow Novabase SGPS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novabase SGPS it is €3.06 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €7.14. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novabase SGPS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NBA trades above its calculated fair value: price €7.14, fair value €3.06, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NBA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.06). For Novabase SGPS the two are €4.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novabase SGPS worth?
The market values Novabase SGPS at about €269M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €7.14; our models calculate a fair value of €3.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NBA?
Our models span a range for Novabase SGPS: cautious scenario €2.56, base €3.06, optimistic €3.97 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €7.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NBA?
Novabase SGPS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 5.3, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 25.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NBA?
The PEG ratio of Novabase SGPS is 0.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novabase SGPS (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 21.4%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NBA from its 52-week high?
Novabase SGPS trades at €7.14, about 21% below its 52-week high of €9.04 and 1% above the low of €7.04 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novabase SGPS?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novabase SGPS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €7.14, calculated fair value €3.06 (−57%), Quality Score 55/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NBA calculated?
We run Novabase SGPS through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Novabase SGPS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was €7.14. Our model-based fair value is €3.06, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novabase SGPS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Novabase SGPS
How large is the market capitalisation of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The market capitalisation of Novabase SGPS is €269M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novabase SGPS is 1.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Earnings per share at Novabase SGPS are €0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The dividend yield of Novabase SGPS is 5.6% (payout 160%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The net margin of Novabase SGPS is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novabase SGPS is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novabase SGPS is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
The operating margin of Novabase SGPS is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Revenue at Novabase SGPS is growing −0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novabase SGPS (NBA)?
Earnings per share at Novabase SGPS are growing −49.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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