NGE Capital Ltd (NGE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of NGE Capital Ltd A$1.48, price A$1.29, upside +14.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch NGE Capital Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0020 – A$1.45 · fair‑value band A$1.11 – A$1.85 · the A$1.29 price screens below the A$1.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow NGE Capital in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether NGE Capital is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
NGE Capital Limited operates as an investment company in Australia. It invests in listed and unlisted securities. The company was formerly known as New Guinea Energy Limited and changed its name to NGE Capital Limited in June 2017. NGE Capital Limited was founded in 2005 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
NGE Capital Ltd (NGE) currently trades at A$1.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.48, implying the stock looks roughly 12.8% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 23 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$1.11 (bear) to A$1.85 (bull), the price of A$1.29 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
NGE Capital Ltd reported revenue of A$933K in FY2025 versus A$693K in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$12.0M in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$44.6M (≈ $31.3M) · P/E ratio 3.7 · P/S ratio 47.5 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3500 · Net margin 1,288% · Return on equity 22.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% · Operating margin −163%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 15%, NGE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.11Fair Value A$1.48Bull A$1.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2608 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.9%
’10
’14
’15
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.4% vs 35.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−760% → 1,197%
2025 sits 81% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 660 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside+14.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets−1.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−163.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−80.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NGE Capital Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGE
Frequently asked questions
Is NGE Capital Ltd (NGE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.48 versus a price of A$1.29, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NGE?
Our model-based fair value for NGE Capital Ltd is A$1.48 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.29.
What is the quality score of NGE?
NGE Capital Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.48 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.11, optimistic scenario A$1.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NGE Capital Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.48, about +15% upside versus a price of A$1.29 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$1.11, optimistic scenario A$1.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
NGE Capital Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$933K (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NGE Capital Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NGE use?
Our models discount NGE Capital Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NGE Capital Ltd that is -0.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NGE Capital Ltd (NGE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NGE Capital Ltd grew +22.2 % a year. The price currently implies -0.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NGE Capital Ltd (-0.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.03 %: that much free cash flow NGE Capital Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NGE Capital Ltd it is A$1.48 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$1.29. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NGE Capital Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NGE trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.29, fair value A$1.48, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.48). For NGE Capital Ltd the two are A$0.1900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NGE Capital Ltd worth?
The market values NGE Capital Ltd at about A$44.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$1.29; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGE?
Our models span a range for NGE Capital Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.11, base A$1.48, optimistic A$1.85 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$1.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NGE?
NGE Capital Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 33.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
Balance-sheet figures for NGE Capital Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 22.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGE from its 52-week high?
NGE Capital Ltd trades at A$1.29, about 11% below its 52-week high of A$1.45 and 8% above the low of A$1.19 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NGE Capital Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NGE Capital Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$1.29, calculated fair value A$1.48 (+15%), Quality Score 65/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGE calculated?
We run NGE Capital Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. NGE Capital Ltd currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$1.29. Our model-based fair value is A$1.48, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NGE Capital Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of NGE Capital Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
The market capitalisation of NGE Capital Ltd is A$44.6M (≈ $31.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NGE Capital Ltd is 47.5 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
Earnings per share at NGE Capital Ltd are A$0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
The net margin of NGE Capital Ltd is 1,288% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NGE Capital Ltd is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NGE Capital Ltd is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
The operating margin of NGE Capital Ltd is −163% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
Revenue at NGE Capital Ltd is growing −80.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NGE Capital Ltd (NGE)?
Earnings per share at NGE Capital Ltd are growing +20.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NGE Capital Ltd (NGE) hold?
NGE Capital Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$7.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch NGE Capital Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts NGE Capital Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
