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Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Nippon Steel Corporation $0.48, price $4.25, upside -88.7%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US

Thin data Sep 29, 2026

Nippon Steel Corporation

NISTF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.4800 · Strongly overvalued (−88.7%)

!Quality 40/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.0 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

!4.4% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns

!Trails peers (5/14)

!Narrow moat 21/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 3 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear $0.2700 to bull $0.6400 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 40/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.10 – $20.38 · fair‑value band $0.2700 – $0.6400 · the $4.25 price screens above the $0.4800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Nippon Steel Corporation engages in the steelmaking and steel fabrication, engineering, chemicals and materials, and system solutions businesses in Japan and internationally. The company's Steelmaking and Steel Fabrication segment engages in the manufacture and sale of steel products. Its Engineering and Construction segment engages in the design, manufacture, sale, construction, and supervision of various plants and facilities, energy pipelines, water facilities, industrial machinery and equipment, buildings, building materials and equipment, steel structures, etc.; operation, management, and maintenance of plants and facilities, etc.; waste treatment and recycling business; and electricity, gas, heat, and other supply businesses. The company's Chemicals and Materials segment engages in the manufacture and sale of coal-based chemical products, petrochemicals, electronic materials, and materials and components for semiconductors and electronic parts; carbon fiber and composite products; and products that utilize technologies for metal processing. Its System Solutions segment offers computer system engineering and consulting; and IT-enabled outsourcing services and other services. The company also provides steel plates, sheets, and slags; structural steels; pipes and tubes; railway, automotive, and machinery parts; titanium; and stainless steel and electrical steel sheet products for use in various applications, including automotive, construction, energy, railways and shipping, and consumer electronics industries. The company was formerly known as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation and changed its name to Nippon Steel Corporation in April 2019. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF) currently trades at $4.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4800, 88.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.52 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the $4.25 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.1500, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.2700 (bear) to $0.6400 (bull), the price of $4.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Nippon Steel Corporation reported revenue of ¥10.1T in FY2026 versus ¥6.8T in FY2022, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥17.3B in FY2026, compounding −59.4%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $22.2B · P/E ratio 212.5 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −89%, NISTF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2700 Fair Value $0.4800 Bull $0.6400

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $4.54 $4.21 $4.00 76

EPV $2.07 $2.69 $3.24 74

ROIC Compounder $2.07 $2.69 $3.24 72

All 16 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $0.1400 $0.4800 $0.6400 64

Lynch FV $0.1100 $0.1500 $0.2000 61

PEG = 1.0 $0.1100 $0.1500 $0.2000 57

EPV $2.07 $2.69 $3.24 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $1.64 $3.41 $5.41 66

DDM Multi-Stage $1.64 $2.81 $3.58 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $0.2700 $0.3600 $0.4400 63

P/S Multiple $0.2700 $0.3600 $0.4400 58

P/B Multiple $0.2700 $0.3600 $0.4400 55

EV/EBIT $4.09 $6.02 $7.94 65

EV/EBITDA $7.69 $10.82 $13.94 67

EV/Revenue $3.32 $5.47 $7.61 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $3.37 $4.52 $6.75 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $4.54 $4.21 $4.00 76

ROIC Compounder $2.07 $2.69 $3.24 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $0.2300 $0.3300 $0.4300 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 23

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 34

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 36

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 44

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 45

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 52

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 64

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 70

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 80

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+16.5%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+16.0%

Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year

Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.2%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

−47.7%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−52.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−52.1% vs −20.2%, slowing

Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%

Start year 2021 (pandemic)

NISTF screens overvalued: fair value 89% below the price. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative

Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

Global Automotive Steel Market Report, 2026 Edition Featuring Profiles of ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel Corp., POSCO, Tata Steel, Nucor Corp., Yahoo Finance · Sep 24, 2026
Nippon Steel raises U.S. Steel profit forecast to $1.1B amid higher steel prices Yahoo Finance · Aug 6, 2026

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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 406 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −79.5% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 0.8% · Below median

Return on assets 2.1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 0.2% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 4.1% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 31.0% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.4% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.33× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 212.5× · Priciest 25%

P/B 0.63× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.35× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 4.9× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 3.15× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 22

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 30

PAST (return on equity)3 · sector 18

HEALTH (low debt)83 · sector 95

DIVIDEND (yield)87 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE	$236.24	$116.49	−51%
ArcelorMittal S.A MT	€59.82	€35.15	−41%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD	$230.39	$127.93	−44%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL	₹1,233	₹1,095	−11%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL	₹178.00	₹147.10	−17%
Reliance, Inc RS	$393.04	$211.55	−46%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019	¥5.84	¥8.07	+38%
POSCO Holdings 005490	311,000 KRW	155,270 KRW	−50%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010	¥2.09	¥0.5300	−75%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL	₹1,165	₹516.27	−56%

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Nippon Steel Corporation · Fair Value
$0.4800 −89%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NISTF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Nippon Steel Corporation · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$0.4800</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−89%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nippon Steel Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NISTF

Frequently asked questions

Is Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4800 versus a price of $4.25, about −89% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of NISTF?

Our model-based fair value for Nippon Steel Corporation is $0.4800 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.25.

What is the quality score of NISTF?

Nippon Steel Corporation has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4800 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2700, optimistic scenario $0.6400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Nippon Steel Corporation stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $0.4800, about −89% upside versus a price of $4.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2700, optimistic scenario $0.6400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

Nippon Steel Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥10.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).

Does Nippon Steel Corporation pay a dividend?

Nippon Steel Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Steel Corporation it is $0.4800 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $4.25. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Nippon Steel Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 29, 2026, NISTF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.25, fair value $0.4800, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of NISTF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4800). For Nippon Steel Corporation the two are $3.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Nippon Steel Corporation worth?

The market values Nippon Steel Corporation at about $22.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $4.25; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4800 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NISTF?

Our models span a range for Nippon Steel Corporation: cautious scenario $0.2700, base $0.4800, optimistic $0.6400 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $4.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of NISTF?

Nippon Steel Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 212.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.4800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.9.

What is the PEG ratio of NISTF?

The PEG ratio of Nippon Steel Corporation is 3.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Steel Corporation (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is NISTF from its 52-week high?

Nippon Steel Corporation trades at $4.25, about 7% below its 52-week high of $4.55 and 37% above the low of $3.10 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4800 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Steel Corporation?

From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Nippon Steel Corporation stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $4.25, calculated fair value $0.4800 (−89%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of NISTF calculated?

We run Nippon Steel Corporation through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Steel Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.25. Our model-based fair value is $0.4800, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Nippon Steel Corporation right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.2700 to $0.6400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Where does the earnings growth of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF) come from?

Earnings per share at Nippon Steel Corporation grew +5.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Nippon Steel Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

The market capitalisation of Nippon Steel Corporation is $22.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Steel Corporation is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

Earnings per share at Nippon Steel Corporation are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 212.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

The dividend yield of Nippon Steel Corporation is 4.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

The net margin of Nippon Steel Corporation is 0.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Steel Corporation is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Steel Corporation is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

The operating margin of Nippon Steel Corporation is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

Revenue at Nippon Steel Corporation is growing +31.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF)?

Earnings per share at Nippon Steel Corporation are growing −42.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF) generate?

The free cash flow of Nippon Steel Corporation is −¥174B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Nippon Steel Corporation (NISTF) carry?

The net debt of Nippon Steel Corporation is ¥4.7T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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