Tata Steel Limited (TTST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tata Steel Limited $15.36, price $18.95, upside -18.9%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.77 – $23.85 · fair‑value band $11.52 – $19.20 · the $18.95 price screens above the $15.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Tata Steel Limited engages in the manufacture and distribution of steel products in India and internationally.
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Tata Steel Limited engages in the manufacture and distribution of steel products in India and internationally. It offers reinforcement bars (rebars) and wire rods, cut-and-bend reinforcement bars, welded wire mesh, prefabricated cages (pre-cages), steel couplers and carpet reinforcement, hot-rolled, cold rolled, coated coil, tubes, rebar, metallic coated, pre-finished steels, alloy steels, and profiles and construction systems. The company also provides solutions in building envelopes, structural, fit-out, foundations, and highway engineering products, as well as operates steel service centers. It serves agricultural, automotive, construction, consumer goods, energy and power, engineering, and material handling industries. Tata Steel Limited has a strategic collaboration with Hindustan Zinc Limited to scale low-carbon zinc solutions. The company was incorporated in 1907 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Tata Steel Limited (TTST) currently trades at $18.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.36, 18.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $25.60 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $18.95 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.69, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.52 (bear) to $19.20 (bull), the price of $18.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tata Steel Limited reported revenue of ₹2.3T in FY2026 versus ₹2.4T in FY2022, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹108B in FY2026, compounding −28.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4T · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $0.9200 · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% · Operating margin 9.7% · Revenue (TTM) ₹2.3T.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −19%, TTST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.52Fair Value $15.36Bull $19.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 10%
2026 sits 75% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in INR, India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.9% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 406 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)21.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tata Steel Limited (TTST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.36 versus a price of $18.95, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TTST?
Our model-based fair value for Tata Steel Limited is $15.36 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.95.
What is the quality score of TTST?
Tata Steel Limited has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.36 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.52, optimistic scenario $19.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tata Steel Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.36, about −19% upside versus a price of $18.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.52, optimistic scenario $19.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
Tata Steel Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tata Steel Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +5.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TTST use?
Our models discount Tata Steel Limited at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tata Steel Limited that is +5.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tata Steel Limited (TTST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tata Steel Limited grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tata Steel Limited (TTST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tata Steel Limited (+5.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.82 %: that much free cash flow Tata Steel Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tata Steel Limited it is $15.36 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $18.95. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tata Steel Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, TTST trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.95, fair value $15.36, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TTST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.36). For Tata Steel Limited the two are $3.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tata Steel Limited worth?
The market values Tata Steel Limited at about $1.4T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $18.95; our models calculate a fair value of $15.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TTST?
Our models span a range for Tata Steel Limited: cautious scenario $11.52, base $15.36, optimistic $19.20 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $18.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TTST?
Tata Steel Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.36 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tata Steel Limited (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TTST from its 52-week high?
Tata Steel Limited trades at $18.95, about 21% below its 52-week high of $23.85 and 8% above the low of $17.47 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tata Steel Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tata Steel Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $18.95, calculated fair value $15.36 (−19%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TTST calculated?
We run Tata Steel Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tata Steel Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $18.95. Our model-based fair value is $15.36, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tata Steel Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Tata Steel Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
The market capitalisation of Tata Steel Limited is $1.4T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
Earnings per share at Tata Steel Limited are $0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
The net margin of Tata Steel Limited is 4.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tata Steel Limited is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tata Steel Limited is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
The operating margin of Tata Steel Limited is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
Revenue at Tata Steel Limited is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tata Steel Limited (TTST)?
Earnings per share at Tata Steel Limited are growing +125% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tata Steel Limited (TTST) carry?
The net debt of Tata Steel Limited is ₹835B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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