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Netlist Inc (NLST) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Netlist Inc stock $3.53, price $6.43, that is 45.1% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Technology US · ISIN US64118P1093

NI Netlist Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Netlist Inc

NLST · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 45% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 46/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +31.9 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Insiders sold $1.0M (6M)
Fair value $3.53 · Strongly overvalued
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/9)
Narrow moat 36/100
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$7.94 $0.5400 Fair Value $3.53 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5400 – $7.94 · fair‑value band $2.64 – $4.41 · the $6.43 price screens above the $3.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Netlist, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets memory subsystems for the server, high-performance computing, and communications markets in the United States and internationally.

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The company portfolio of proprietary technologies and design techniques includes planar design, alternative packaging techniques, and custom semiconductor logic to deliver memory subsystems; and sells specialty memory modules and flash-based products for use in data center and industrial applications.

It resells component products, including solid state drive (SSD), dynamic random-access memory, NAND flash, and dual inline memory module (DIMM) to storage customers, appliance customers, system builders, and cloud and datacenter customers; and sells component inventory to distributors and other users of memory integrated circuits.

The company markets and sells its products through a direct sales force and a network of independent sales representatives. Netlist, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Stock analysis

Netlist Inc (NLST) currently trades at $6.43, while our estimate is $3.53, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $2.64 (bear) to $4.41 (bull), the price of $6.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Netlist Inc reported revenue of $189M in FY2025 versus $142M in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$24.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.0B Small · P/S ratio 6.16 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −61.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 16.5% · Revenue (TTM) $333M · Revenue growth (YoY) +163%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 1,091% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −45%, NLST screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $2.64 Fair Value $3.53 Bull $4.41
Price $6.43 · Downside -45.1%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 98
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 2
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 67
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 18
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 96
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 96
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.0M and none bought.

  • SaleGail M SasakiEVP and CFO6× since Mar 16, 2026: 204,774 shares, avg. $5.10$1.0MAug 17, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleChun K HongPresident, CEO and Chairman, Director3× since Jan 5, 2026: 633,995 shares, avg. $1.38$874,793Jun 8, 2026
  • SaleJun ChoDirector2× since Mar 25, 2026: 30,000 shares, avg. $2.02$60,500Apr 23, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleBlake WelcherDirector2× since Mar 17, 2026: 75,000 shares, avg. $1.83$137,250Apr 22, 202610b5-1 plan

Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +37.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−14.5% (2020) → −13.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NLST screens overvalued: fair value 45% below the price. Compare with TD SYNNEX Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronics & Computer Distribution · 155 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −45.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −50.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 16.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 163.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 5.94× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 53.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG 5.36× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 67
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Electronics & Computer Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
WPG Holdings 3702 92.50 TWD 144.03 TWD +56% vs NLST
TD SYNNEX Corporation SNX $232.50 $290.49 +25% vs NLST
Synnex Technology International Corporation 2347 79.10 TWD 86.30 TWD +9% vs NLST
Topco Scientific Co 5434 503.00 TWD 472.85 TWD −6% vs NLST
Rexel S.A RXL €36.06 €31.78 −12% vs NLST
Insight Enterprises, Inc NSIT $168.75 $142.01 −16% vs NLST
Unisplendour Corporation 000938 ¥24.87 ¥18.06 −27% vs NLST
Avnet, Inc AVT $85.10 $55.48 −35% vs NLST
Arrow Electronics, Inc ARW $194.14 $96.88 −50% vs NLST
Shenzhen Huaqiang Industry Co 000062 ¥19.70 ¥9.23 −53% vs NLST

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Netlist Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Netlist Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NLST

Frequently asked questions

Is Netlist Inc (NLST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $3.53 versus a price of $6.43, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NLST?
Our estimate for Netlist Inc is $3.53 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.43.
What is the quality score of NLST?
Netlist Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Netlist Inc (NLST)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $3.53 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $2.64, optimistic scenario $4.41. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Netlist Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $3.53, about 45% lower versus a price of $6.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.64, optimistic scenario $4.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
Netlist Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $333M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Netlist Inc pay a dividend?
Netlist Inc does not currently pay a dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Netlist Inc it is $3.53 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $6.43.
Is Netlist Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, NLST trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.43, fair value $3.53, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NLST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.53). For Netlist Inc the two are $2.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Netlist Inc worth?
The market values Netlist Inc at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $6.43; our models calculate a fair value of $3.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NLST?
Our models span a range for Netlist Inc: cautious scenario $2.64, base $3.53, optimistic $4.41 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $6.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NLST?
The PEG ratio of Netlist Inc is 5.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Netlist Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NLST from its 52-week high?
Netlist Inc trades at $6.43, about 8% below its 52-week high of $6.99 and 1,091% above the low of $0.5400 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Netlist Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value TD SYNNEX Corporation, Rexel S.A, Unisplendour Corporation, Arrow Electronics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Netlist Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $6.43, calculated fair value $3.53 (−45%), Quality Score 46/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Netlist Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $6.43. Our estimate is $3.53, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Netlist Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Netlist Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
The market capitalisation of Netlist Inc is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Netlist Inc is 6.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
The net margin of Netlist Inc is 0.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Netlist Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Netlist Inc is −61.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Netlist Inc (NLST)?
The operating margin of Netlist Inc is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Netlist Inc (NLST)?
Revenue at Netlist Inc is growing +163% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Netlist Inc (NLST) generate?
The free cash flow of Netlist Inc is −$14.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Netlist Inc (NLST) carry?
The net debt of Netlist Inc is $7.6M (fiscal year 2020). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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