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North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of North American Construction Group Ltd $13.96, price $12.50, upside +11.7%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA6568111067

NA North American Construction Group Ltd logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

North American Construction Group Ltd

NOA · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $13.96 · Undervalued (+12%)
!Quality 38/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +20.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.6% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·3.84% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$24.23 $8.68 Fair Value $13.96 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.68 – $24.23 · fair‑value band $9.77 – $18.15 · the $12.50 price screens below the $13.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

North American Construction Group Ltd. provides mining and heavy civil construction services to customers in the resource development and industrial construction sectors in Australia, Canada, and the United States. It operates through Heavy Equipment - Canada, Heavy Equipment - Australia, and Other segments.

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North American Construction Group Ltd. provides mining and heavy civil construction services to customers in the resource development and industrial construction sectors in Australia, Canada, and the United States. It operates through Heavy Equipment - Canada, Heavy Equipment - Australia, and Other segments. The company offers mine management services for a thermal coal mine; and construction and operations support services in Canadian oil sands region. It also provides fully maintained heavy equipment rentals at metallurgical and thermal coal mines; heavy equipment rentals to iron ore, gold and lithium producers; and heavy equipment maintenance, component remanufacturing, and full equipment rebuild services to mining companies and other heavy equipment operators, as well as supplies production-critical components to the mining and construction industry. The company was formerly known as North American Energy Partners Inc. and changed its name to North American Construction Group Ltd. in April 2018. North American Construction Group Ltd. was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Acheson, Canada.

Stock analysis

North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA) currently trades at $12.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.96, implying the stock looks roughly 10.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $21.22 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the $12.50 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.33, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $9.77 (bear) to $18.15 (bull), the price of $12.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

North American Construction Group Ltd reported revenue of C$1.3B in FY2025 versus C$654M in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$33.8M in FY2025, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $403M · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.8000 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 12%, NOA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.77 Fair Value $13.96 Bull $18.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2341 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $13.01 $13.49 $13.75 76
EPV $1.81 $5.33 $8.26 68
Gordon GGM $3.84 $6.91 $9.52 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $8.49 $40.09 $55.12 64
Lynch FV $10.63 $15.19 $19.75 61
PEG = 1.0 $10.63 $15.19 $19.75 57
EPV $1.81 $5.33 $8.26 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.84 $6.91 $9.52 68
DDM Multi-Stage $3.84 $6.31 $7.38 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $13.11 $17.48 $21.85 63
P/S Multiple $15.92 $21.22 $26.53 58
P/B Multiple $15.92 $21.22 $26.53 55
EV/EBIT $6.47 $16.61 $26.76 61
EV/EBITDA $30.65 $48.86 $67.07 66
EV/Revenue $12.96 $28.79 $44.62 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.42 $11.28 $16.83 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $13.01 $13.49 $13.75 76
ROIC Compounder $1.81 $5.33 $8.26 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $13.74 $19.63 $25.52 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 10
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 9%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 190 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.64× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.88× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.32× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 3.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.38× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)49 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)18 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)77 · sector 34

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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North American Construction Group Ltd · Fair Value
$13.96 +10%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "North American Construction Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOA

Frequently asked questions

Is North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.96 versus a price of $12.50, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NOA?
Our model-based fair value for North American Construction Group Ltd is $13.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.50.
What is the quality score of NOA?
North American Construction Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.77, optimistic scenario $18.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the North American Construction Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.96, about +12% upside versus a price of $12.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.77, optimistic scenario $18.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
North American Construction Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does North American Construction Group Ltd pay a dividend?
North American Construction Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For North American Construction Group Ltd it is $13.96 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $12.50. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is North American Construction Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NOA trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.50, fair value $13.96, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.96). For North American Construction Group Ltd the two are $1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is North American Construction Group Ltd worth?
The market values North American Construction Group Ltd at about $403M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $12.50; our models calculate a fair value of $13.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOA?
Our models span a range for North American Construction Group Ltd: cautious scenario $9.77, base $13.96, optimistic $18.15 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $12.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOA?
North American Construction Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of NOA?
The PEG ratio of North American Construction Group Ltd is 0.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
Balance-sheet figures for North American Construction Group Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 1.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOA from its 52-week high?
North American Construction Group Ltd trades at $12.50, about 25% below its 52-week high of $16.67 and 5% above the low of $11.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to North American Construction Group Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is North American Construction Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $12.50, calculated fair value $13.96 (+12%), Quality Score 38/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOA calculated?
We run North American Construction Group Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. North American Construction Group Ltd currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $12.50. Our model-based fair value is $13.96, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with North American Construction Group Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range ($9.77 to $18.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of North American Construction Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
The market capitalisation of North American Construction Group Ltd is $403M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of North American Construction Group Ltd is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
Earnings per share at North American Construction Group Ltd are $0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
The dividend yield of North American Construction Group Ltd is 3.8% (payout 60.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
The net margin of North American Construction Group Ltd is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of North American Construction Group Ltd is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of North American Construction Group Ltd is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
The operating margin of North American Construction Group Ltd is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
Revenue at North American Construction Group Ltd is growing −6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA)?
Earnings per share at North American Construction Group Ltd are growing −9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA) generate?
The free cash flow of North American Construction Group Ltd is −C$26.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does North American Construction Group Ltd (NOA) carry?
The net debt of North American Construction Group Ltd is C$821M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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