Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. $3.10, price $3.69, upside -16.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range $2.69 – $4.88 · fair‑value band $1.52 – $4.03 · the $3.69 price screens above the $3.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the paints and fine chemicals businesses in Japan, Asia, the United States, Europe, and internationally.
Show more
Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the paints and fine chemicals businesses in Japan, Asia, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company offers automotive coatings, including paints for the automotive body, surface treatment, electrodeposition coating, intermediate coating, and finish coating; paints for plastic components, such as bumpers and interior components; decorative paints for construction sites, single-family detached homes, condominiums, office buildings, medical institutions, and schools; industrial coatings that are used for construction and farming machinery, exterior construction materials, office equipment, electric home appliances; and marine coatings, such as antifouling paints. It also provides surface treatment products comprising functional coatings, which demonstrate various functions, such as hydrophilicity and rust prevention, and substrate films; caulking agents to fill gaps between building materials; adhesives to fix flooring and building materials; and fillers used for base coatings. In addition, the company is involved in the investment business; and sale of paints and raw materials. The company was formerly known as Nippon Paint Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. in October 2014. Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan. Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Nipsea International Limited.
Stock analysis
Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY) currently trades at $3.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.10, implying the stock looks roughly 19.0% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $3.15 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.69 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.29, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.52 (bear) to $4.03 (bull), the price of $3.69 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. reported revenue of ¥1.6T in FY2025 versus ¥998B in FY2021, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥126B in FY2025, compounding +16.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $16.7B · P/E ratio 21.7 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) $0.1700 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −16%, NPPHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.52Fair Value $3.10Bull $4.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (5 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 703 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.10 versus a price of $3.69, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPPHY?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is $3.10 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.69.
What is the quality score of NPPHY?
Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.10 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.52, optimistic scenario $4.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.10, about −16% upside versus a price of $3.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.52, optimistic scenario $4.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.9T (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPPHY use?
Our models discount Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. that is +3.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. grew +16.0 % a year. The price currently implies +3.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (+3.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.70 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. it is $3.10 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $3.69. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, NPPHY trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.69, fair value $3.10, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPPHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.10). For Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. the two are $0.5900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. at about $16.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $3.69; our models calculate a fair value of $3.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPPHY?
Our models span a range for Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario $1.52, base $3.10, optimistic $4.03 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $3.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPPHY?
Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of NPPHY?
The PEG ratio of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPPHY from its 52-week high?
Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. trades at $3.69, about 24% below its 52-week high of $4.88 and 37% above the low of $2.69 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $3.69, calculated fair value $3.10 (−16%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPPHY calculated?
We run Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $3.69. Our model-based fair value is $3.10, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($1.52 to $4.03). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is $16.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is 1.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. are $0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is 1.5% (payout 31.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
The net margin of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is 7.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
The operating margin of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
Revenue at Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. are growing +57.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. (NPPHY) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. is ¥998B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. in the live analysis
One click puts Nippon Paint Holdings Co. Ltd. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 13, 2026