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Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Oceana Lithium Ltd stock A$0.03, price A$0.30, upside -91.5%, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000217648

OL Oceana Lithium Ltd logo Thin data Oct 30, 2026

Oceana Lithium Ltd

OCN · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 92% below what the stock costs today.

Costs just 7.7 times its yearly profit.
Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +1091.8 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0255 · Strongly overvalued (−91.5%)
Quality 27/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/7)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.7500 A$0.0230 Fair Value A$0.0255 Jul 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

52‑month range A$0.0230 – A$0.7500 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0340 · the A$0.3000 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Oceana Metals Limited engages in lithium pegmatite discovery and exploration in Brazil and Australia.

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The company holds 100% interests in the Solonopole lithium project that consists of 10 exploration permits covering approximately 124 square kilometers located in Brazil; and the Napperby lithium project, which include a granted exploration license covering an area of approximately 650 square kilometers and an exploration license application covering an area of approximately 512 square kilometres located in Northern Territory, Australia.

It also holds a 100% interest in the Bangemall base metals project covering an area of approximately 93 square kilometers situated in Bangemall Basin, Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Oceana Lithium Limited and changed its name to Oceana Metals Limited in December 2025.

Oceana Metals Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN) currently trades at A$0.3000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, 91.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0170 (bear) to A$0.0340 (bull), the price of A$0.3000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Oceana Lithium Ltd reported revenue of A$186K in FY2025 versus A$110 in FY2022, a compound +1,091.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$11.5M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$75.3M (≈ $53.0M) Micro · P/E ratio 7.7 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0700 · Return on equity −95.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −31.3% · Operating margin −18,335% · Revenue (TTM) A$75.0K · Revenue growth (YoY) −66.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −92%, OCN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0170 Fair Value A$0.0255 Bull A$0.0340
Price A$0.3000 · Upside -91.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 22
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 48
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 67
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+357.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1,091.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,521,394.5% (2022) → −321.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

OCN screens overvalued: fair value 92% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 366 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −91.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −74.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −66.8% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 7.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 5.06× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹233.05 ₹613.43 +163% vs OCN
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥30.72 ¥54.86 +79% vs OCN
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.98 ¥19.48 +39% vs OCN
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 56.35 SAR 61.99 SAR +10% vs OCN
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹492.50 ₹541.75 +10% vs OCN
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥30.45 ¥33.50 +10% vs OCN
Boliden AB BOL kr 508.80 kr 464.45 −9% vs OCN
Korea Zinc Company 010130 856,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −24% vs OCN
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥35.09 ¥23.20 −34% vs OCN
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN C$9.77 C$4.46 −54% vs OCN

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Oceana Lithium Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0255 −92%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oceana Lithium Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OCN

Frequently asked questions

Is Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0255 versus a price of A$0.3000, about −92% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OCN?
Our model-based fair value for Oceana Lithium Ltd is A$0.0255 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3000.
What is the quality score of OCN?
Oceana Lithium Ltd has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0255 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0340. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oceana Lithium Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0255, about −92% upside versus a price of A$0.3000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0340. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
Oceana Lithium Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$75.0K (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oceana Lithium Ltd it is A$0.0255 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of A$0.3000. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oceana Lithium Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, OCN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.3000, fair value A$0.0255, a gap of about −92% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0255). For Oceana Lithium Ltd the two are A$0.2745 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oceana Lithium Ltd worth?
The market values Oceana Lithium Ltd at about A$75.3M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3000; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0255 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCN?
Our models span a range for Oceana Lithium Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0170, base A$0.0255, optimistic A$0.0340 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price A$0.3000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OCN?
Oceana Lithium Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.0255 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oceana Lithium Ltd (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −95.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCN from its 52-week high?
Oceana Lithium Ltd trades at A$0.3000, about 50% below its 52-week high of A$0.6050 and 114% above the low of A$0.1400 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0255 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oceana Lithium Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Boliden AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oceana Lithium Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price A$0.3000, calculated fair value A$0.0255 (−92%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCN calculated?
We run Oceana Lithium Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Oceana Lithium Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was A$0.3000. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0255, about −92% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oceana Lithium Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0340). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0170 to A$0.0340) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Oceana Lithium Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
The market capitalisation of Oceana Lithium Ltd is A$75.3M (≈ $53.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
Earnings per share at Oceana Lithium Ltd are A$−0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oceana Lithium Ltd is −95.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oceana Lithium Ltd is −31.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
The operating margin of Oceana Lithium Ltd is −18,335% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN)?
Revenue at Oceana Lithium Ltd is growing −66.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,092%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN) generate?
The free cash flow of Oceana Lithium Ltd is −A$2.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Oceana Lithium Ltd (OCN) hold?
Oceana Lithium Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$8.2M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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