Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd A$0.24, price A$0.70, upside -66.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
47‑month range A$0.1300 – A$1.05 · fair‑value band A$0.2210 – A$0.2550 · the A$0.7000 price screens above the A$0.2380 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Omega Oil & Gas Limited engages in the evaluation and exploration of oil and gas in Australia. The company flagship project is The Canyon Project, located in the Taroom Trough. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA) currently trades at A$0.7000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2380, 66.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$0.3700 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$0.7000 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.1500, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2210 (bear) to A$0.2550 (bull), the price of A$0.7000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Omega Oil & Gas Ltd reported revenue of A$103K in FY2026 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$7.2M in FY2026.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −66%, OMA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.2210Fair Value A$0.2380Bull A$0.2550
Price A$0.7000 · Upside -66.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 279 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside−67.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth66.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.54× · Pricier than median
P/FCF22.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 84
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Omega Oil & Gas Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OMA
Frequently asked questions
Is Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2380 versus a price of A$0.7000, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OMA?
Our model-based fair value for Omega Oil & Gas Ltd is A$0.2380 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.7000.
What is the quality score of OMA?
Omega Oil & Gas Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2380 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2210, optimistic scenario A$0.2550. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Omega Oil & Gas Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2380, about −66% upside versus a price of A$0.7000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2210, optimistic scenario A$0.2550. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
Omega Oil & Gas Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$103K (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Omega Oil & Gas Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OMA use?
Our models discount Omega Oil & Gas Ltd at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Omega Oil & Gas Ltd that is +18.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (+18.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.21 %: that much free cash flow Omega Oil & Gas Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Omega Oil & Gas Ltd it is A$0.2380 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.7000. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Omega Oil & Gas Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, OMA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.7000, fair value A$0.2380, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OMA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.7000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2380). For Omega Oil & Gas Ltd the two are A$0.4620 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Omega Oil & Gas Ltd worth?
The market values Omega Oil & Gas Ltd at about A$397M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.7000; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2380 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OMA?
Our models span a range for Omega Oil & Gas Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.2210, base A$0.2380, optimistic A$0.2550 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$0.7000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −6.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OMA from its 52-week high?
Omega Oil & Gas Ltd trades at A$0.7000, about 33% below its 52-week high of A$1.05 and 115% above the low of A$0.3250 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2380 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Omega Oil & Gas Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Omega Oil & Gas Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$0.7000, calculated fair value A$0.2380 (−66%), Quality Score 39/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OMA calculated?
We run Omega Oil & Gas Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.2380, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Omega Oil & Gas Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was A$0.7000. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2380, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Omega Oil & Gas Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2550). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
The market capitalisation of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd is A$397M (≈ $276M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
Earnings per share at Omega Oil & Gas Ltd are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd is −6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd is −8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
The operating margin of Omega Oil & Gas Ltd is −5,211% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA)?
Revenue at Omega Oil & Gas Ltd is growing +66.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Omega Oil & Gas Ltd (OMA) hold?
Omega Oil & Gas Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$78.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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