Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. $17.83, price $10.39, upside +71.6%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range $9.87 – $14.26 · fair‑value band $8.38 – $34.17 · the $10.39 price screens below the $17.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is a business development company specializes in upper middle-market, making debt and equity investments such as senior secured or unsecured loans, subordinated loans or mezzanine loans and equity-related securities including common equity, warrants, preferred stock and similar forms of senior equity, finance and business development company. The firm prefers to invest in technology and software companies. It primarily makes investments in the United States. Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is founded in 2018 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) currently trades at $10.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.83, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $61.57 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the $10.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.76, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.38 (bear) to $34.17 (bull), the price of $10.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $537M in FY2021, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was $720M in FY2025, compounding +14.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.8B · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 8.61 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Dividend yield 13.5% · Net margin 67.1% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 72%, OTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.38Fair Value $17.83Bull $34.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+99.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+21.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.72% → 68%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.1% a year for the price and +10.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (68 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+72% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)29% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)73% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)13.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.83 versus a price of $10.39, about +72% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OTF?
Our model-based fair value for Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is $17.83 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.39.
What is the quality score of OTF?
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.83 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.38, optimistic scenario $34.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.83, about +72% upside versus a price of $10.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.38, optimistic scenario $34.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. pay a dividend?
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +44.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTF use?
Our models discount Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. that is +0.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. grew +44.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (+0.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.30 %: that much free cash flow Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. it is $17.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.39. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.39, fair value $17.83, a gap of about +72% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.83). For Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. the two are $7.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. worth?
The market values Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. at about $4.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.39; our models calculate a fair value of $17.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTF?
Our models span a range for Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.: cautious scenario $8.38, base $17.83, optimistic $34.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OTF?
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTF from its 52-week high?
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. trades at $10.39, about 24% below its 52-week high of $13.68 and 5% above the low of $9.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.39, calculated fair value $17.83 (+72%), Quality Score 43/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTF calculated?
We run Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.39. Our model-based fair value is $17.83, about +72% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($8.38 to $34.17). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
The market capitalisation of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is $4.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is 8.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
Earnings per share at Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
The dividend yield of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is 13.5% (payout 173%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
The net margin of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is 67.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
The operating margin of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is 73.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
Revenue at Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +82.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)?
Earnings per share at Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. are growing −22.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) carry?
The net debt of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is $6.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026