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OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of OTP Bank Nyrt. $64.73, price $64.28, upside +0.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Some data
Sep 29, 2026
OTP Bank Nyrt.
OTPGF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $64.73 · Fairly valued (+0.7%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +20.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 38.4% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 69/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.81 – $64.28 · fair‑value band $48.22 – $84.78 · the $64.28 price screens below the $64.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
OTP Bank Nyrt., together with its subsidiaries, provides various commercial banking services.
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OTP Bank Nyrt., together with its subsidiaries, provides various commercial banking services. The company offers retail banking services, including account management comprising forint account packages, inheritance administration, and foreign currency accounts; debit cards; internet and mobile banking; direkt telephone banking services; and deposits and securities accounts. It also provides corporate banking services, such as account opening, authenticated electronic bank account statements, cash management solutions, business cards, HUF and foreign currency loans, bank guarantees, special agricultural loans, factoring, European union grants, leasing, specialized lending/project financing, syndicated lending and international financing, and forfaiting and buyer's credits; securities account, stock exchange transaction orders, investment fund shares, and government securities; and global markets services, capital market solutions, private banking, and global securities services. In addition, the company is involved in refinancing activities; mortgage lending; real estate management and development; finance and real estate lease; housing savings and loans; fund management; and fund services. The company operates through a network of branches in Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine, Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, Slovenia, and Uzbekistan, as well as provides other services in the Netherlands and Malta. OTP Bank Nyrt. was founded in 1949 and is based in Budapest, Hungary.
Stock analysis
OTP Bank Nyrt., (OTPGF) currently trades at $64.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.73, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $60.54 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $64.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.62, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $48.22 (bear) to $84.78 (bull), the price of $64.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
OTP Bank Nyrt., reported revenue of 3.1T HUF in FY2025 versus 1.4T HUF in FY2021, a compound +22.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1T HUF in FY2025, compounding +25.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $32.6B · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 3.20 · EPS (TTM) $7.30 · Net margin 36.4% · Return on equity 20.6% · Return on assets 2.5% · Revenue (TTM) 2.8T HUF.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 122% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 1%, OTPGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $48.22
Fair Value $64.73
Bull $84.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.52 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$45.13
$60.54
$111.27
72
P/E Multiple
$66.93
$89.24
$111.56
63
P/B Multiple
$35.45
$47.27
$59.08
55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$66.93
$89.24
$111.56
63
P/B Multiple
$35.45
$47.27
$59.08
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$16.88
$22.62
$33.76
51
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$45.13
$60.54
$111.27
72
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
54/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Profitability
51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in HUF ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in HUF: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+23.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HUF, Hungary: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.2% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.7%
Watch OTPGF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (9 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Creatio Invests $300 Million in Its Bank.AI Platform to Drive AI Adoption in Financial Services
- OTP Bank PLC (OTPBF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Core Growth and Strategic ...
- OTP Bank to acquire Luminor
- OTP Bank (BUSE:OTP) Stock Sees Fair Value Lift As Growth And Margin Views Improve
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1052 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 78.00 SGD | 40.39 SGD | −48% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 600036 | ¥40.69 | ¥52.73 | +30% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €79.53 | €77.12 | −3% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $11.05 | $6.82 | −38% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.38 | €4.06 | −36% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €91.54 | €105.99 | +16% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK | ₹721.20 | ₹406.44 | −44% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 32.01 SGD | 19.78 SGD | −38% |
| Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 | 63.15 SAR | 36.95 SAR | −41% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €12.03 | €8.46 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.73 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $64.28, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of OTPGF?
Our model-based fair value for OTP Bank Nyrt., is $64.73 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $64.28.
What is the quality score of OTPGF?
OTP Bank Nyrt., has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.73 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $48.22, optimistic scenario $84.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OTP Bank Nyrt., stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.73, about +1% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $64.28 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $48.22, optimistic scenario $84.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
OTP Bank Nyrt., reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8T HUF (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, OTP Bank Nyrt., would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.6 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTPGF use?
Our models discount OTP Bank Nyrt., at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For OTP Bank Nyrt., that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at OTP Bank Nyrt., grew +20.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into OTP Bank Nyrt., (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.36 %: that much free cash flow OTP Bank Nyrt., produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OTP Bank Nyrt., it is $64.73 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $64.28. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OTP Bank Nyrt., stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, OTPGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $64.28, fair value $64.73, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTPGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($64.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.73). For OTP Bank Nyrt., the two are $0.4500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OTP Bank Nyrt., worth?
The market values OTP Bank Nyrt., at about $32.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $64.28; our models calculate a fair value of $64.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTPGF?
Our models span a range for OTP Bank Nyrt.,: cautious scenario $48.22, base $64.73, optimistic $84.78 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $64.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OTPGF?
OTP Bank Nyrt., trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for OTP Bank Nyrt., (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 20.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTPGF from its 52-week high?
OTP Bank Nyrt., trades at $64.28, at its 52-week high of $64.28 and 122% above the low of $28.90 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OTP Bank Nyrt.,?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OTP Bank Nyrt., stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $64.28, calculated fair value $64.73 (+1%), Quality Score 54/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTPGF calculated?
We run OTP Bank Nyrt., through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. OTP Bank Nyrt., currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $64.28. Our model-based fair value is $64.73, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OTP Bank Nyrt., right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of OTP Bank Nyrt.,
How large is the market capitalisation of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
The market capitalisation of OTP Bank Nyrt., is $32.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OTP Bank Nyrt., is 3.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
Earnings per share at OTP Bank Nyrt., are $7.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
The net margin of OTP Bank Nyrt., is 36.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OTP Bank Nyrt., is 20.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
The return on assets (ROA) of OTP Bank Nyrt., is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
How fast is revenue growing at OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
Revenue at OTP Bank Nyrt., is growing +11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTPGF)?
Earnings per share at OTP Bank Nyrt., are growing −4.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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