Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lloyds Banking Group PLC $3.17, price $5.50, upside -42.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.41 – $6.26 · fair‑value band $2.87 – $4.01 · the $5.50 price screens above the $3.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Follow Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Lloyds Banking Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and financial products and services for retail and commercial customers in the United Kingdom. It operates in three segments: Retail; Commercial Banking; and Insurance, Pensions and Investments.
Show more
Lloyds Banking Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and financial products and services for retail and commercial customers in the United Kingdom. It operates in three segments: Retail; Commercial Banking; and Insurance, Pensions and Investments. The Retail segment offers a range of financial service products, including current accounts, savings, mortgages, credit cards, unsecured loans, motor finance, and leasing solutions to personal customers. Its Commercial Banking segment provides lending, transactional banking, working capital management, debt financing, and risk management services to small and medium businesses, corporates, and institutions. The Insurance, Pensions and Investments segment offers insurance, investment, and pension management products and services. It also provides life assurance; and digital banking services. The company offers its products and services under the Lloyds Bank, Halifax, Bank of Scotland, Scottish Widows, MBNA, Schroders Personal Wealth, Black Horse, Lex Autolease, Birmingham Midshires, LDC, AMC, Embark Group, Lloyds Living, Cavendish Online, Tusker, and HGP brands. The company was formerly known as Lloyds TSB Group plc and changed its name to Lloyds Banking Group plc in January 2009. Lloyds Banking Group plc was founded in 1695 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR (LYG) currently trades at $5.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.17, 42.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $4.16 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $5.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.16, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.87 (bear) to $4.01 (bull), the price of $5.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR reported revenue of $65.0B in FY2025 versus $18.7B in FY2021, a compound +36.5%/yr. Reported net income was $4.7B in FY2025, compounding −5.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $88.8B · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 0.96 · EPS (TTM) $0.4100 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 7.2% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −42%, LYG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.87Fair Value $3.17Bull $4.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1447 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+72.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.6% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+54.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+50.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.50.0% vs 6.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 10%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−27.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.8% · Above median
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)26.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)41.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.4× · Pricier than median
P/B1.86× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.64× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA18.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.08× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)58· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)8· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)79· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LYG
Frequently asked questions
Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.17 versus a price of $5.50, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LYG?
Our model-based fair value for Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is $3.17 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.50.
What is the quality score of LYG?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.17 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.87, optimistic scenario $4.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.17, about −42% upside versus a price of $5.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.87, optimistic scenario $4.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR it is $3.17 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $5.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, LYG trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.50, fair value $3.17, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LYG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.17). For Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR the two are $2.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR worth?
The market values Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR at about $88.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $5.50; our models calculate a fair value of $3.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LYG?
Our models span a range for Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR: cautious scenario $2.87, base $3.17, optimistic $4.01 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $5.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LYG?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.9, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 18.1.
What is the PEG ratio of LYG?
The PEG ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is 1.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 1.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LYG from its 52-week high?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR trades at $5.50, about 12% below its 52-week high of $6.26 and 29% above the low of $4.26 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $5.50, calculated fair value $3.17 (−42%), Quality Score 47/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LYG calculated?
We run Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $5.50. Our model-based fair value is $3.17, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) come from?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR grew +8.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
The market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is $88.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is 0.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR are $0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
The dividend yield of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is 4.0% (payout 53.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
The net margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is 7.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
The operating margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is 41.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
Revenue at Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +46.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR are growing +44.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) generate?
The free cash flow of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is −$625M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) carry?
The net debt of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR is $38.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Continue in the live analysis
Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026