Oxford Lane Capital Corp (OXLC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $812M
Oxford Lane Capital Corp
OXLC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +1.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.04 – $16.44 · fair‑value band $5.38 – $8.97 · the $9.20 price screens above the $7.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Oxford Lane Capital Corp (OXLC) currently trades at $9.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.17, implying the stock looks roughly 22.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $464M. Revenue declined 10.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -39.2%. Net debt stands at $192M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.38 (bear case) to $8.97 (bull case); at $9.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -22%, OXLC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($17.03) versus Asset-Based ($13.43). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. is a close ended fund launched and managed by Oxford Lane Management LLC. It invests in fixed income securities. The fund primarily invests in securitization vehicles which in turn invest in senior secured loans made to companies whose debt is rated below investment grade or is unrated.
Full company description
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. is a close ended fund launched and managed by Oxford Lane Management LLC. It invests in fixed income securities. The fund primarily invests in securitization vehicles which in turn invest in senior secured loans made to companies whose debt is rated below investment grade or is unrated. Oxford Lane Capital Corp was formed on June 9, 2010 and is domiciled in the United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Oxford Lane Capital Corp reported revenue of $95.8M in FY2025 versus $293M in FY2021, a compound −24.4%/yr. Reported net income was $48.5M in FY2025, compounding −36.1%/yr from FY2021.
OXLC screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Schedules First Fiscal Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call for July 28, 2026
- Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Provides May 2026 Net Asset Value Update
- Oxford Lane Capital Corp (OXLC) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with ...
- Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Q4 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Asset Management · 973 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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