A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of A.F.P. Provida CLP 6,726, price CLP 5,100, upside +31.9%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 248.28 CLP – 5,805 CLP · fair‑value band 4,164 CLP – 9,417 CLP · the 5,100 CLP price screens below the 6,726 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. manages equity and fixed income pension funds. The firm was founded on June 1983.
Stock analysis
A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA) currently trades at 5,100 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6,726 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 24.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 6,623 CLP per share, and 6 of the 11 models we run sit above the 5,100 CLP price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 2,436 CLP, and 5 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 4,164 CLP (bear) to 9,417 CLP (bull), the price of 5,100 CLP sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
A.F.P. Provida reported revenue of 316B CLP in FY2025 versus 202B CLP in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 140B CLP in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.7T CLP (≈ $1.7B) · P/S ratio 5.12 · Net margin 44.4% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9% · Operating margin 52.9% · Revenue (TTM) 323B CLP · Revenue growth (YoY) −8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 32%, PROVIDA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4,164 CLPFair Value 6,726 CLPBull 9,417 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in CLP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in CLP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 60%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Chile: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+32% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)44% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)53% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "A.F.P. Provida Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PROVIDA
Frequently asked questions
Is A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6,726 CLP versus a price of 5,100 CLP, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PROVIDA?
Our model-based fair value for A.F.P. Provida is 6,726 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5,100 CLP.
What is the quality score of PROVIDA?
A.F.P. Provida has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6,726 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4,164 CLP, optimistic scenario 9,417 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the A.F.P. Provida stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6,726 CLP, about +32% upside versus a price of 5,100 CLP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4,164 CLP, optimistic scenario 9,417 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
A.F.P. Provida reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 323B CLP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, A.F.P. Provida would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PROVIDA use?
Our models discount A.F.P. Provida at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For A.F.P. Provida that is +0.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at A.F.P. Provida grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +0.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into A.F.P. Provida (+0.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.06 %: that much free cash flow A.F.P. Provida produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For A.F.P. Provida it is 6,726 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 5,100 CLP. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is A.F.P. Provida stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PROVIDA trades below its calculated fair value: price 5,100 CLP, fair value 6,726 CLP, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PROVIDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5,100 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6,726 CLP). For A.F.P. Provida the two are 1,626 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is A.F.P. Provida worth?
The market values A.F.P. Provida at about 1.7T CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 5,100 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 6,726 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PROVIDA?
Our models span a range for A.F.P. Provida: cautious scenario 4,164 CLP, base 6,726 CLP, optimistic 9,417 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 5,100 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for A.F.P. Provida (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PROVIDA from its 52-week high?
A.F.P. Provida trades at 5,100 CLP, about 12% below its 52-week high of 5,805 CLP and 38% above the low of 3,705 CLP (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6,726 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to A.F.P. Provida?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is A.F.P. Provida stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 5,100 CLP, calculated fair value 6,726 CLP (+32%), Quality Score 77/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PROVIDA calculated?
We run A.F.P. Provida through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6,726 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. A.F.P. Provida currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 5,100 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 6,726 CLP, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with A.F.P. Provida right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range (4,164 CLP to 9,417 CLP) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of A.F.P. Provida
How large is the market capitalisation of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
The market capitalisation of A.F.P. Provida is 1.7T CLP (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of A.F.P. Provida is 5.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
The net margin of A.F.P. Provida is 44.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of A.F.P. Provida is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of A.F.P. Provida is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
The operating margin of A.F.P. Provida is 52.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
Revenue at A.F.P. Provida is growing −8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at A.F.P. Provida (PROVIDA)?
Earnings per share at A.F.P. Provida are growing +8.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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