Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $72.2M · ISIN US81749D1072
What is Sera Prognostics Inc really worth?
Sera Prognostics Inc
SERA · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 446% above our fair value of $0.3700.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Sera Prognostics Inc is $0.3700 per share against a price of $2.02, so the fair value sits 82% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.2500 to $0.4700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.16 – $13.04 · fair‑value band $0.2500 – $0.4700 · the $2.02 price screens above the $0.3700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA) currently trades at $2.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3700, implying the stock looks roughly 445.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $57.0K. Revenue declined 63.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −39.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.2500 (bear case) to $0.4700 (bull case); at $2.02, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −82%, SERA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 1 models by family
Notify me when SERA reaches fair value
Put SERA on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health company, discovers, develops, and commercializes blood-based biomarker tests, and predictive analytic products and services in the United States. The company develops the PreTRM test, a non-invasive blood test given to a pregnant woman, carrying a single fetus, during weeks 18 through 20 of gestation.
Full company description
Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health company, discovers, develops, and commercializes blood-based biomarker tests, and predictive analytic products and services in the United States. The company develops the PreTRM test, a non-invasive blood test given to a pregnant woman, carrying a single fetus, during weeks 18 through 20 of gestation. It is also involved in the development of a pipeline of novel blood-based biomarker tests and predictive analytic products and services for pregnancy related conditions, such as time-to-birth, predictive analytics product, pregnancy risk prediction panel, preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sera Prognostics Inc reported revenue of $81.0K in FY2025 versus $82.0K in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$31.9M in FY2025.
SERA screens 446% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →
Peer Group
Medical Devices · 352 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott Laboratories, ABT | $112.47 | $74.79 | −34% |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | $322.12 | $186.28 | −42% |
| Medtronic plc MDT | $89.97 | $65.57 | −27% |
| Boston Scientific Corporation BSX | $46.84 | $30.73 | −34% |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW | $89.78 | $41.02 | −54% |
| Siemens Healthineers AG SHL | €39.52 | €33.87 | −14% |
| DexCom, Inc DXCM | $90.82 | $38.95 | −57% |
| GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC | $74.82 | $64.13 | −14% |
| Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA | €23.69 | €14.36 | −39% |
| Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 | ¥150.63 | ¥147.63 | −2% |
Compare Sera Prognostics Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Healthcare stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of SERA?
What is the quality score of SERA?
What is the price target for Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)?
What is the Sera Prognostics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
What is the revenue of Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)?
What is the net profit margin of SERA?
Watch Sera Prognostics Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Sera Prognostics Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.