The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of The SPAR Group Ltd $6.46, price $2.52, upside +156.4%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.52 – $13.18 · fair‑value band $3.77 – $9.16 · the $2.52 price screens below the $6.46 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally.
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The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally. The company offers fresh produce, in-store bakery, butchery, deli, ready-to-eat meals, home-meal replacements, groceries, general merchandise, baked foods, liquor products, building and hardware products, coffee, dispensary and health-related products, confectionery, health and beauty, frozen foods, catering products, wines, and non-food items. The SPAR Group Ltd operates stores under the SUPERSPAR, SPAR, KWIKSPAR, SPAR EXPRESS, PHARMACY at SPAR, TOPS at SPAR, and SAVEMOR brands. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Pinetown, South Africa.
Stock analysis
The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF) currently trades at $2.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.46, implying the stock looks roughly 61.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $16.02 per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the $2.52 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.11, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.77 (bear) to $9.16 (bull), the price of $2.52 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
The SPAR Group Ltd reported revenue of 131B ZAR in FY2025 versus 128B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was −4.8B ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 11.8 · EPS (TTM) $0.5000 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% · Operating margin 2.0% · Revenue (TTM) 131B ZAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 156%, SGPPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.77Fair Value $6.46Bull $9.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5000 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.8% (2020) → 1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.6% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+142.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.5% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−3.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.23× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.21× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The SPAR Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGPPF
Frequently asked questions
Is The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.46 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $2.52, about +156% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGPPF?
Our model-based fair value for The SPAR Group Ltd is $6.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $2.52.
What is the quality score of SGPPF?
The SPAR Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.77, optimistic scenario $9.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The SPAR Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.46, about +156% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $2.52 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.77, optimistic scenario $9.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
The SPAR Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 131B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The SPAR Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -20.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGPPF use?
Our models discount The SPAR Group Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The SPAR Group Ltd that is -20.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The SPAR Group Ltd grew +1.1 % a year. The price currently implies -20.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The SPAR Group Ltd (-20.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 41.79 %: that much free cash flow The SPAR Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The SPAR Group Ltd it is $6.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.52. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The SPAR Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SGPPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.52, fair value $6.46, a gap of about +156% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGPPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.46). For The SPAR Group Ltd the two are $3.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The SPAR Group Ltd worth?
The market values The SPAR Group Ltd at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.52; our models calculate a fair value of $6.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGPPF?
Our models span a range for The SPAR Group Ltd: cautious scenario $3.77, base $6.46, optimistic $9.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SGPPF?
The SPAR Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for The SPAR Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 1.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGPPF from its 52-week high?
The SPAR Group Ltd trades at $2.52, about 57% below its 52-week high of $5.88 and at the low of $2.52 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The SPAR Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The SPAR Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.52, calculated fair value $6.46 (+156%), Quality Score 51/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGPPF calculated?
We run The SPAR Group Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The SPAR Group Ltd currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $2.52. Our model-based fair value is $6.46, about +156% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The SPAR Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($3.77 to $9.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF) come from?
Earnings per share at The SPAR Group Ltd grew −15.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −6.1 %, tax rate −5.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −12.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The SPAR Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
The market capitalisation of The SPAR Group Ltd is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
Earnings per share at The SPAR Group Ltd are $0.5000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
The net margin of The SPAR Group Ltd is −3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The SPAR Group Ltd is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The SPAR Group Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
The operating margin of The SPAR Group Ltd is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
Revenue at The SPAR Group Ltd is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF)?
Earnings per share at The SPAR Group Ltd are growing −93.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The SPAR Group Ltd (SGPPF) carry?
The net debt of The SPAR Group Ltd is 13.5B ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026