Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Source Energy Services Ltd C$30.00, price C$10.00, upside +200.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Source Energy Services Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.10 – C$18.28 · fair‑value band C$15.45 – C$43.75 · the C$10.00 price screens below the C$30.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Source Energy Services in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Source Energy Services is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Source Energy Services Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of frac sand used primarily in oil and gas exploration and production in Canada and the United States.
Show more
Source Energy Services Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of frac sand used primarily in oil and gas exploration and production in Canada and the United States. It also provides logistics services, including trucking operations; and Sahara, a well-site mobile sand storage and handling system, as well as distributes bulk completion materials. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE) currently trades at C$10.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$30.00, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$58.91 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$10.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$10.76, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$15.45 (bear) to C$43.75 (bull), the price of C$10.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Source Energy Services Ltd reported revenue of C$700M in FY2025 versus C$320M in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$33.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$150M (≈ $106M) · P/E ratio 25.8 · P/S ratio 1.22 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.9500 · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity −6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin −1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 200%, SHLE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$15.45Fair Value C$30.00Bull C$43.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+41.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.2% a year for the price.
Compare Source Energy Services Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 185 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−2.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−32.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Source Energy Services Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHLE
Frequently asked questions
Is Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$30.00 versus a price of C$10.00, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SHLE?
Our model-based fair value for Source Energy Services Ltd is C$30.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$10.00.
What is the quality score of SHLE?
Source Energy Services Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$30.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$15.45, optimistic scenario C$43.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Source Energy Services Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$30.00, about +200% upside versus a price of C$10.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$15.45, optimistic scenario C$43.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
Source Energy Services Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$587M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Source Energy Services Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHLE use?
Our models discount Source Energy Services Ltd at 15.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 2.44, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Source Energy Services Ltd that is +5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Source Energy Services Ltd grew +22.9 % a year. The price currently implies +5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Source Energy Services Ltd (+5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.56 %: that much free cash flow Source Energy Services Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Source Energy Services Ltd it is C$30.00 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$10.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Source Energy Services Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, SHLE trades below its calculated fair value: price C$10.00, fair value C$30.00, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHLE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$10.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$30.00). For Source Energy Services Ltd the two are C$20.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Source Energy Services Ltd worth?
The market values Source Energy Services Ltd at about C$150M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$10.00; our models calculate a fair value of C$30.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHLE?
Our models span a range for Source Energy Services Ltd: cautious scenario C$15.45, base C$30.00, optimistic C$43.75 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$10.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHLE?
Source Energy Services Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$30.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Source Energy Services Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −6.2%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHLE from its 52-week high?
Source Energy Services Ltd trades at C$10.00, about 45% below its 52-week high of C$18.28 and 2% above the low of C$9.84 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$30.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Source Energy Services Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, Tenaris S.A, TechnipFMC plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Source Energy Services Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$10.00, calculated fair value C$30.00 (+200%), Quality Score 44/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHLE calculated?
We run Source Energy Services Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$30.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Source Energy Services Ltd currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$10.00. Our model-based fair value is C$30.00, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Source Energy Services Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$15.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (C$15.45 to C$43.75). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Source Energy Services Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
The market capitalisation of Source Energy Services Ltd is C$150M (≈ $106M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Source Energy Services Ltd is 1.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
Earnings per share at Source Energy Services Ltd are C$−0.9500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
The net margin of Source Energy Services Ltd is 4.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Source Energy Services Ltd is −6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Source Energy Services Ltd is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
The operating margin of Source Energy Services Ltd is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
Revenue at Source Energy Services Ltd is growing −32.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE)?
Earnings per share at Source Energy Services Ltd are growing +285% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE) carry?
The net debt of Source Energy Services Ltd is C$333M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Source Energy Services Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Source Energy Services Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
