Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Syrah Resources Limited $0.09, price $0.05, upside +105.4%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0450 – $1.48 · fair‑value band $0.0707 – $0.1214 · the $0.0450 price screens below the $0.0924 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Syrah Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia, China, Europe, India, the Americas, and internationally. It operates through Balama and Vidalia segments.
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Syrah Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia, China, Europe, India, the Americas, and internationally. It operates through Balama and Vidalia segments. The company's flagship project is the Balama graphite; and vanadium project located in Cabo Delgado Province, Mozambique. It also involved in the operation and expansion of the Vidalia active anode material facility; construction of the Vidalia Initial Expansion project; and evaluation of the Vidalia Further Expansion project. In addition, it is involved in production, distribution and sale of natural graphite; customer engagement and commercial negotiations, research and development; and treasury, investing activities. Syrah Resources Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF) currently trades at $0.0450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0924, implying the stock looks roughly 51.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.0707 (bear) to $0.1214 (bull), the price of $0.0450 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Syrah Resources Limited reported revenue of $34.5M in FY2025 versus $29.0M in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$101M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $235M · P/S ratio 7.04 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0800 · Return on equity −28.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.1% · Operating margin −135% · Revenue (TTM) $33.4M · Revenue growth (YoY) +152%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 85% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 105%, SYAAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0707Fair Value $0.0924Bull $0.1214
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+77.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−31.3%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−477.8% (2020) → −259.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 435 stocks
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Is Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0924 versus a price of $0.0450, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SYAAF?
Our model-based fair value for Syrah Resources Limited is $0.0924 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0450.
What is the quality score of SYAAF?
Syrah Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0924 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0707, optimistic scenario $0.1214. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Syrah Resources Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0924, about +105% upside versus a price of $0.0450 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0707, optimistic scenario $0.1214. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
Syrah Resources Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Syrah Resources Limited it is $0.0924 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0450. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Syrah Resources Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SYAAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0450, fair value $0.0924, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SYAAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0924). For Syrah Resources Limited the two are $0.0474 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Syrah Resources Limited worth?
The market values Syrah Resources Limited at about $235M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0450; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0924 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SYAAF?
Our models span a range for Syrah Resources Limited: cautious scenario $0.0707, base $0.0924, optimistic $0.1214 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.0450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Syrah Resources Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −28.4%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SYAAF from its 52-week high?
Syrah Resources Limited trades at $0.0450, about 85% below its 52-week high of $0.2953 and at the low of $0.0450 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0924 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Syrah Resources Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Syrah Resources Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0450, calculated fair value $0.0924 (+105%), Quality Score 21/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SYAAF calculated?
We run Syrah Resources Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0924, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Syrah Resources Limited currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.0450. Our model-based fair value is $0.0924, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Syrah Resources Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (21/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0707). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Syrah Resources Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
The market capitalisation of Syrah Resources Limited is $235M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Syrah Resources Limited is 7.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
Earnings per share at Syrah Resources Limited are $−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Syrah Resources Limited is −28.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Syrah Resources Limited is −10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
The operating margin of Syrah Resources Limited is −135% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF)?
Revenue at Syrah Resources Limited is growing +152% versus a year earlier (3y avg −31.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Syrah Resources Limited is −$74.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Syrah Resources Limited (SYAAF) carry?
The net debt of Syrah Resources Limited is $216M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026