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Telefónica, S.A (TELFY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Telefónica, S.A $16.65, price $3.70, upside +350.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Communication Services · US · ISIN US8793822086

TS Telefónica, S.A logo Some data Sep 29, 2026

Telefónica, S.A

TELFY · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $16.65 · Strongly undervalued (+350.0%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓8.7% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.25 $2.30 Fair Value $16.65 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.30 – $5.25 · fair‑value band $11.33 – $16.65 · the $3.70 price screens below the $16.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America.

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Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesale, corporate, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services; traditional fixed telecommunication services, such as PSTN lines; ISDN accesses; public telephone services; local, domestic, and international long-distance and fixed-to-mobile communications; corporate communications; supplementary value-added services; video telephony; intelligent network; telephony information services; and leases and sells handset equipment. It also provides internet provider service; portal and network, retail and wholesale broadband access, narrowband switched access and other technologies, internet through fibre to the home, very high bit-rate digital subscriber line, and voice over internet protocol services; leased line, virtual private network, fibre optics, web and managed hosting, content delivery and application, security, and outsourcing and consultancy services, including network management or CGP; and desktop, system integration, and professional services. In addition, the company offers wholesale services for telecommunication operators, such as domestic interconnection and international wholesale services; leased lines for other operators; and local loop leasing services, as well as bit stream services, wholesale line rental accesses, and leased ducts for other operators' fiber deployment. Further, it provides video/TV services; smart connectivity and services; financial and other payment, cloud, security, advertising, and big data services; digital products; Aura, an artificial-intelligence ecosystem; Movistar Home device; open gateway; living apps; smart Wi-Fi; NT; Solar 360; and Phoenix, a digital sales platform. Telefónica, S.A. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

Stock analysis

Telefónica, S.A (TELFY) currently trades at $3.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.65, implying the stock looks roughly 77.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.95 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the $3.70 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.90, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $11.33 (bear) to $16.65 (bull), the price of $3.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Telefónica, S.A reported revenue of €35.1B in FY2025 versus €39.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.3B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $23.5B · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4800 · Dividend yield 8.7% · Net margin −12.3% · Return on equity −8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% · Operating margin 13.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 350%, TELFY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.33 Fair Value $16.65 Bull $16.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $9.11 $13.77 $23.20 79
Growth DCF $9.65 $14.22 $22.68 77
5Y EBITDA Exit $11.89 $19.91 $30.92 74
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $9.11 $13.77 $23.20 79
Owner Earnings $0.0400 $1.55 $4.60 65
5Y Revenue Exit $2.88 $4.64 $7.33 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $11.89 $19.91 $30.92 74
10Y Revenue Exit $5.07 $6.95 $8.91 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $10.70 $17.00 $24.13 68
Multiples
EV/EBIT $0.5700 $2.19 $3.81 59
EV/EBITDA $16.42 $23.32 $30.23 67
EV/Revenue n/a $0.9700 $2.55 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.42 $1.90 $2.84 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $9.65 $14.22 $22.68 77
Rev-Margin DCF $2.88 $4.95 $7.75 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.6% (2020) → 5.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.9% a year for the price and −1.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−4.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.8%

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Telefónica, S.A with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 237 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −49.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −12.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.97× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.65× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.66× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.38× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Mobile Limited 80941 HK$67.30 HK$114.85 +71%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $45.87 $70.27 +53%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $162.98 $272.88 +67%
AT&T Inc T $24.48 $51.11 +109%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹1,741 ₹1,883 +8%
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.16 ¥8.36 +36%
Saudi Telecom Company 7010 43.22 SAR 41.80 SAR −3%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74 4.28 SGD 2.16 SGD −50%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 639.00 CHF 505.18 −21%
Telstra Group TLS A$4.83 A$4.43 −8%

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Telefónica, S.A · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Telefónica, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TELFY

Frequently asked questions

Is Telefónica, S.A (TELFY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.65 versus a price of $3.70, about +350% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TELFY?
Our model-based fair value for Telefónica, S.A is $16.65 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.70.
What is the quality score of TELFY?
Telefónica, S.A has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.65 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.33, optimistic scenario $16.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telefónica, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.65, about +350% upside versus a price of $3.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.33, optimistic scenario $16.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
Telefónica, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €35.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Telefónica, S.A pay a dividend?
Telefónica, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telefónica, S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TELFY use?
Our models discount Telefónica, S.A at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telefónica, S.A that is -9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telefónica, S.A (TELFY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telefónica, S.A grew -4.0 % a year. The price currently implies -9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telefónica, S.A (-9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.19 %: that much free cash flow Telefónica, S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telefónica, S.A it is $16.65 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $3.70. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Telefónica, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, TELFY trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.70, fair value $16.65, a gap of about +350% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TELFY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.65). For Telefónica, S.A the two are $12.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telefónica, S.A worth?
The market values Telefónica, S.A at about $23.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $3.70; our models calculate a fair value of $16.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TELFY?
Our models span a range for Telefónica, S.A: cautious scenario $11.33, base $16.65, optimistic $16.65 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $3.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TELFY?
The PEG ratio of Telefónica, S.A is 0.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telefónica, S.A (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −8.9%, debt of 1.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TELFY from its 52-week high?
Telefónica, S.A trades at $3.70, about 24% below its 52-week high of $4.89 and 3% above the low of $3.60 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telefónica, S.A?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telefónica, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $3.70, calculated fair value $16.65 (+350%), Quality Score 44/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TELFY calculated?
We run Telefónica, S.A through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Telefónica, S.A currently trades 78 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.70. Our model-based fair value is $16.65, about +350% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telefónica, S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Key figures of Telefónica, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
The market capitalisation of Telefónica, S.A is $23.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telefónica, S.A is 0.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
Earnings per share at Telefónica, S.A are $−0.4800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
The dividend yield of Telefónica, S.A is 8.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
The net margin of Telefónica, S.A is −12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telefónica, S.A is −8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telefónica, S.A is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
The operating margin of Telefónica, S.A is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
Revenue at Telefónica, S.A is growing −12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telefónica, S.A (TELFY)?
Earnings per share at Telefónica, S.A are growing +26.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telefónica, S.A (TELFY) carry?
The net debt of Telefónica, S.A is €25.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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