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Tern Plc (TERN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tern Plc stock £0.01, price £0.01, that is 15.4% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services GB · ISIN GB00BFPMV798

TP Tern Plc logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

Tern Plc

TERN · LSE
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +79% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −52.1 %/yr in GBP)
Fair value £0.0077 · Overvalued
Quality 27/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£0.2325 £0.0035 Fair Value £0.0077 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.0035 – £0.2325 · the £0.0091 price screens above the £0.0077 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Tern Plc is a venture capital firm specializing in early-stage and growth capital investment.

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The firm typically invests in the software companies having IoT security, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Virtual/Augmented Reality (VR/AR) and Data Science, enablement and analytics solutions for the healthcare and industrial sectors.

The firm primarily invest in companies based in United Kingdom. Tern Plc was founded on 18 May 2004 and it is based in London, the United Kingdom. Tern Plc formerly known as Silvermere Energy plc.

Stock analysis

Tern Plc (TERN) currently trades at £0.0091, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.0077, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2016: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2016.

Tern Plc reported revenue of £54.0K in FY2025 versus £6.1M in FY2021, a compound −69.3%/yr. Reported net income was −£5.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap £8.8M Micro · EPS (TTM) £−0.0100 · Return on equity −51.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −45.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1,400% · Revenue (TTM) £69.0K · Revenue growth (YoY) +78.9% · EPS growth (YoY) +653%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 160% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −15%, TERN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
P/B Multiple n/a £0.0100 £0.0100 52
NCAV (Graham) n/a n/a £0.0100 51
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple n/a £0.0100 £0.0100 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) n/a n/a £0.0100 51

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 50
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 55
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 74
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2016: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2016.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−52.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
27.8% (2020) → −9,451.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TERN screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with Blackstone Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −15.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −68.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 78.9% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.27× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13 · sector 57
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 80

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Exor N.V EXO €74.35 €139.37 +87% vs TERN
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $162.81 $281.42 +73% vs TERN
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $116.75 $197.52 +69% vs TERN
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $501.49 $609.56 +22% vs TERN
State Street Corporation STT $165.56 $139.37 −16% vs TERN
Ares Management Corporation ARES $133.98 $99.35 −26% vs TERN
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $172.76 $123.42 −29% vs TERN
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd BAM $52.95 $31.26 −41% vs TERN
Blackstone Inc BX $119.50 $52.29 −56% vs TERN
KKR & Co KKR $96.48 $27.32 −72% vs TERN

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Tern Plc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tern Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TERN

Frequently asked questions

Is Tern Plc (TERN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.0077 versus a price of £0.0091, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TERN?
Our model-based fair value for Tern Plc is £0.0077 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.0091.
What is the quality score of TERN?
Tern Plc has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tern Plc (TERN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.0077 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 2 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tern Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.0077, about 15% lower versus a price of £0.0091 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tern Plc (TERN)?
Tern Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £69.0K (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tern Plc (TERN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tern Plc it is £0.0077 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of £0.0091. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Tern Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, TERN trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.0091, fair value £0.0077, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TERN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.0091); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.0077). For Tern Plc the two are £0.0014 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tern Plc worth?
The market values Tern Plc at about £8.8M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is £0.0091; our models calculate a fair value of £0.0077 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tern Plc (TERN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tern Plc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −51.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TERN from its 52-week high?
Tern Plc trades at £0.0091, about 40% below its 52-week high of £0.0153 and 160% above the low of £0.0035 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.0077 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tern Plc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tern Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price £0.0091, calculated fair value £0.0077 (−15%), Quality Score 27/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TERN calculated?
We run Tern Plc through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £0.0077 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tern Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tern Plc (TERN)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was £0.0091. Our model-based fair value is £0.0077, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tern Plc right now?
Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Tern Plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tern Plc (TERN)?
The market capitalisation of Tern Plc is £8.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tern Plc (TERN)?
Earnings per share at Tern Plc are £−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tern Plc (TERN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tern Plc is −51.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tern Plc (TERN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tern Plc is −45.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tern Plc (TERN)?
The operating margin of Tern Plc is −1,400% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tern Plc (TERN)?
Revenue at Tern Plc is growing +78.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tern Plc (TERN)?
Earnings per share at Tern Plc are growing +653% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tern Plc (TERN) generate?
The free cash flow of Tern Plc is −£1.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tern Plc (TERN) carry?
The net debt of Tern Plc is £133K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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