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Terna S.p.A (TERRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Terna S.p.A $8.02, price $10.25, upside -21.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Terna S.p.A
TERRF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $8.02 · Overvalued (−21.8%)
!Quality 41/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!3.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 67/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.08 – $12.60 · fair‑value band $4.50 – $11.68 · the $10.25 price screens above the $8.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Terna S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides electricity transmission and dispatching services in Italy, other Euro-area countries, and internationally. It operates through Regulated, Non-Regulated, and International segments.
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Terna S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides electricity transmission and dispatching services in Italy, other Euro-area countries, and internationally. It operates through Regulated, Non-Regulated, and International segments. The company is involved in the design, construction, management, development, operation, and maintenance of national transmission grid; dispatching and metering; and construction of storage systems. It also supplies transformers and cables; provides energy and connectivity services; and installs and operates interconnecting lines. In addition, the company designs, produces, commercializes, and repairs power transformers for electricity transmission and distribution grids; industrial transformers for the steel and metals industries; special transformers for convertors used in electrochemical production; manufactures and sells marine and terrestrial cables; develops renewable energy projects; and undertakes private interconnector projects. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Terna S.p.A (TERRF) currently trades at $10.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.02, 21.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $10.28 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $10.25 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.45, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.50 (bear) to $11.68 (bull), the price of $10.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Terna S.p.A reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €2.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +8.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $23.9B · P/E ratio 16.5 · P/S ratio 4.65 · EPS (TTM) $0.6100 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 28.1% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −22%, TERRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.50
Fair Value $8.02
Bull $11.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1822 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$4.29
$5.23
$7.01
76
EPV
$1.36
$2.45
$3.41
71
ROIC Compounder
$1.36
$2.45
$3.41
70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.24
$13.77
$18.40
64
Lynch FV
$3.08
$4.39
$5.71
61
PEG = 1.0
$3.08
$4.39
$5.71
57
EPV
$1.36
$2.45
$3.41
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$4.19
$8.72
$13.83
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$4.19
$7.07
$9.15
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$8.41
$11.22
$14.02
63
P/S Multiple
$4.15
$5.54
$6.92
58
P/B Multiple
$5.88
$7.84
$9.80
55
EV/EBIT
$5.67
$9.30
$12.92
64
EV/EBITDA
$6.03
$9.77
$13.52
66
EV/Revenue
n/a
$0.3500
>$1.40
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.18
$2.92
$4.36
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.29
$5.23
$7.01
76
ROIC Compounder
$1.36
$2.45
$3.41
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$7.20
$10.28
$13.36
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Profitability
40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
16
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
54/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.2% vs 6.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 44%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
TERRF screens overvalued: fair value 22% below the price. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 153 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $75.74 | $29.97 | −60% |
| The Southern Company SO | $82.89 | $57.57 | −31% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $113.41 | $74.88 | −34% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $118.64 | $100.03 | −16% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $60.76 | $37.84 | −38% |
| Entergy Corporation ETR | $98.10 | $37.37 | −62% |
| Xcel Energy Inc XEL | $69.39 | $54.92 | −21% |
| Exelon Corporation EXC | $40.32 | $36.01 | −11% |
| Consolidated Edison, Inc ED | $103.33 | $47.76 | −54% |
| PG&E Corporation PCG | $12.34 | $17.85 | +45% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Terna S.p.A (TERRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.02 versus a price of $10.25, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TERRF?
Our model-based fair value for Terna S.p.A is $8.02 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.25.
What is the quality score of TERRF?
Terna S.p.A has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.02 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.50, optimistic scenario $11.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Terna S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.02, about −22% upside versus a price of $10.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.50, optimistic scenario $11.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
Terna S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Terna S.p.A pay a dividend?
Terna S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Terna S.p.A it is $8.02 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $10.25. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Terna S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, TERRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.25, fair value $8.02, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TERRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.02). For Terna S.p.A the two are $2.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Terna S.p.A worth?
The market values Terna S.p.A at about $23.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $10.25; our models calculate a fair value of $8.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TERRF?
Our models span a range for Terna S.p.A: cautious scenario $4.50, base $8.02, optimistic $11.68 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $10.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TERRF?
Terna S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 3.1, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TERRF?
The PEG ratio of Terna S.p.A is 2.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Terna S.p.A (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 1.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TERRF from its 52-week high?
Terna S.p.A trades at $10.25, about 19% below its 52-week high of $12.60 and 9% above the low of $9.42 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Terna S.p.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Terna S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $10.25, calculated fair value $8.02 (−22%), Quality Score 41/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TERRF calculated?
We run Terna S.p.A through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Terna S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $10.25. Our model-based fair value is $8.02, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Terna S.p.A right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($4.50 to $11.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Terna S.p.A (TERRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Terna S.p.A grew +6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin −1.6 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Terna S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
The market capitalisation of Terna S.p.A is $23.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Terna S.p.A is 4.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
Earnings per share at Terna S.p.A are $0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
The dividend yield of Terna S.p.A is 3.6% (payout 60.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
The net margin of Terna S.p.A is 28.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Terna S.p.A is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Terna S.p.A is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
The operating margin of Terna S.p.A is 45.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
Revenue at Terna S.p.A is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Terna S.p.A (TERRF)?
Earnings per share at Terna S.p.A are growing −4.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Terna S.p.A (TERRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Terna S.p.A is −€317M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Terna S.p.A (TERRF) carry?
The net debt of Terna S.p.A is €11.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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