National Grid plc (NGG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · AR · Market cap 123T ARS
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from 43,418 ARS to 44,377 ARS (+2.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −1.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (57,690 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4,104 ARS – 69,250 ARS · fair‑value band 34,361 ARS – 57,690 ARS · the 61,175 ARS price screens above the 44,377 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
National Grid plc (NGG) currently trades at 61,175 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 44,377 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 27.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, National Grid plc generated revenue of 17.7B ARS at a net margin of 18.3%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at 45.5B ARS. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 34,361 ARS (bear case) to 57,690 ARS (bull case); at 61,175 ARS, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -27%, NGG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (44,576 ARS) versus Earnings-Based (11,184 ARS). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales.
Full company description
National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales. The UK Electricity Distribution segment offers electricity distribution services in east and west Midlands, Southwest of England, and South Wales. The New England segment provides electricity and gas supply and distribution, and high-voltage electricity transmission services in New England. The New York segment offers electricity and gas distribution, and electricity transmission services in New York. The National Grid Ventures segment provides transmission services through electricity interconnectors and LNG importation at the Isle of Grain. The Other segment engages in the leasing and sale of commercial property, as well as insurance activities in the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
National Grid plc reported revenue of 17.7B ARS in FY2026 versus 18.4B ARS in FY2022, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 3.2B ARS in FY2026, compounding +8.3%/yr from FY2022.
NGG screens 27% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- National Grid: Growth and Customer Protection Must Go Hand in Hand
- National Grid plc (NGG) Targets Soaring US Power Demand with $1.75B Joulent Investment
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
| CK Infrastructure Holdings 1038 | HK$62.60 | HK$42.74 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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