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National Grid plc (NGG) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · AR · Market cap 123T ARS

NG National Grid plc NGG · BA
Price61,175 ARS
Fair Value44,377 ARS
Upside-27.5%
Quality42/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 18.3% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/14)
Moderate moat 59/100
Evidence: Medium Range 34,361 ARS – 57,690 ARS Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from 43,418 ARS to 44,377 ARS (+2.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −1.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 27% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (57,690 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

69,250 ARS 4,104 ARS Fair Value 44,377 ARS Feb 2021 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 4,104 ARS – 69,250 ARS · fair‑value band 34,361 ARS – 57,690 ARS · the 61,175 ARS price screens above the 44,377 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

National Grid plc (NGG) currently trades at 61,175 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 44,377 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 27.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, National Grid plc generated revenue of 17.7B ARS at a net margin of 18.3%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at 45.5B ARS. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 34,361 ARS (bear case) to 57,690 ARS (bull case); at 61,175 ARS, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -27%, NGG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 33,592 ARS 36,428 ARS 46,893 ARS 76
ROIC Compounder 3,235 ARS 11,184 ARS 18,274 ARS 72
Growth-Adj P/E 31,195 ARS 44,576 ARS 57,937 ARS 68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 22,108 ARS 27,021 ARS 30,417 ARS 54
EPV 3,235 ARS 11,184 ARS 18,274 ARS 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 43,897 ARS 58,536 ARS 73,175 ARS 63
P/S Multiple 33,272 ARS 44,377 ARS 55,461 ARS 58
P/B Multiple 41,461 ARS 55,281 ARS 69,101 ARS 55
EV/EBIT 22,348 ARS 43,777 ARS 65,187 ARS 53
EV/EBITDA 17,854 ARS 37,766 ARS 57,678 ARS 54
EV/Revenue 2,496 ARS 15,797 ARS 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 19,712 ARS 26,422 ARS 39,444 ARS 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 33,592 ARS 36,428 ARS 46,893 ARS 76
ROIC Compounder 3,235 ARS 11,184 ARS 18,274 ARS 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 31,195 ARS 44,576 ARS 57,937 ARS 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (44,576 ARS) versus Earnings-Based (11,184 ARS). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 17.7B ARS
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.0%
Net margin 18.3%
Return on equity 8.4%
Free cash flow −2.7B ARS FY2026
P/E ratio 19.6
More key figures
Operating margin 32.6%
EPS (TTM) 3,141 ARS
EPS growth (YoY) +14.4%
Net debt 45.5B ARS FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 33
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales.

Full company description

National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales. The UK Electricity Distribution segment offers electricity distribution services in east and west Midlands, Southwest of England, and South Wales. The New England segment provides electricity and gas supply and distribution, and high-voltage electricity transmission services in New England. The New York segment offers electricity and gas distribution, and electricity transmission services in New York. The National Grid Ventures segment provides transmission services through electricity interconnectors and LNG importation at the Isle of Grain. The Other segment engages in the leasing and sale of commercial property, as well as insurance activities in the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

National Grid plc reported revenue of 17.7B ARS in FY2026 versus 18.4B ARS in FY2022, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 3.2B ARS in FY2026, compounding +8.3%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
17.7B ARS
Latest YoY
−3.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−6.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+5.3%
Revenue −1.0%/yr
FY22 18.4B ARS
FY23 21.7B ARS
FY24 19.9B ARS
FY25 18.4B ARS
FY26 17.7B ARS
Net income +8.3%/yr
FY22 2.4B ARS
FY23 7.8B ARS
FY24 2.3B ARS
FY25 2.9B ARS
FY26 3.2B ARS

NGG screens 27% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Grid plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGG

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −28% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.07× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.19× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.86× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 18.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.07× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 7
FUTURE 10 · sector 32
PAST 34 · sector 39
HEALTH 46 · sector 54
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $88.80 $32.94 -63%
The Southern Company SO $95.61 $61.06 -36%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $126.11 $97.11 -23%
American Electric Power Company AEP $132.50 $79.33 -40%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $70.08 $46.92 -33%
NTPC Limited NTPC ₹341.85 ₹377.16 +10%
CEZ, a. s. CEZ 232.40 PLN 159.33 PLN -31%
Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID ₹283.55 ₹252.77 -11%
China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 ¥8.91 ¥7.69 -14%
CK Infrastructure Holdings 1038 HK$62.60 HK$42.74 -32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is National Grid plc (NGG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 44,377 ARS versus a price of 61,175 ARS, about −27% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NGG?
Our model-based fair value for National Grid plc is 44,377 ARS (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 61,175 ARS.
What is the quality score of NGG?
National Grid plc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of National Grid plc (NGG)?
National Grid plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.7B ARS (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NGG?
The net profit margin of National Grid plc is about 18.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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