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Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jun 29, 2026: fair value of Tivic Health Systems Inc $1.31, price $0.55, upside +138.2%, quality 11 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US8887051006

TH Tivic Health Systems Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Tivic Health Systems Inc

TIVC · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $1.31 · Strongly undervalued (+138.2%)
!Quality 11/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −15.0 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/6)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$9,486 $0.5140 Fair Value $1.31 Nov 2021 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range $0.5140 – $9,486 · fair‑value band $0.9800 – $1.95 · the $0.5500 price screens below the $1.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Valion Bio, Inc. operates as a late-stage immunotherapeutics company. Its lead drug candidate is Entolimod, a TLR5 agonist that is in late-stage development to treat acute radiation syndrome.

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Valion Bio, Inc. operates as a late-stage immunotherapeutics company. Its lead drug candidate is Entolimod, a TLR5 agonist that is in late-stage development to treat acute radiation syndrome. The company's pipeline also comprises Entolimod to treat Neutropenia and lymphocyte exhaustion; and Entolasta, an immunologically optimized variant of Entolimod for chronic applications. In addition, it offers CDMO services. The company was formerly known as Tivic Health Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Valion Bio, Inc. in April 2026. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in San Antonio, Texas.

Stock analysis

Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC) currently trades at $0.5500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.31, implying the stock looks roughly 58.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.9800 (bear) to $1.95 (bull), the price of $0.5500 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 11/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Tivic Health Systems Inc reported revenue of $382K in FY2025 versus $1.2M in FY2021, a compound −24.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $4.0M · P/S ratio 8.36 · EPS (TTM) $−6.92 · Return on equity −82.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −118% · Revenue (TTM) $482K · Revenue growth (YoY) +15.9% · Free cash flow −$7.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 87% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 138%, TIVC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.9800 Fair Value $1.31 Bull $1.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.13 $1.51 $2.25 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.13 $1.51 $2.25 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 11/100

Of which business quality 19 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 0

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−51.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−40.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−372.6% (2020) → −2,067.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Tivic Health Systems Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 349 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +138.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −28.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 15.9% · Above median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)80 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 39

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Abbott Laboratories, ABT $98.83 $74.79 −24%
Medtronic plc MDT $87.09 $65.61 −25%
Stryker Corporation SYK $278.77 $306.65 +10%
Boston Scientific Corporation BSX $43.65 $48.02 +10%
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW $85.19 $81.94 −4%
Siemens Healthineers AG SHL €37.86 €35.19 −7%
DexCom, Inc DXCM $86.68 $95.35 +10%
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC $66.63 $70.37 +6%
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 ¥153.86 ¥169.25 +10%
Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA €21.87 €15.23 −30%

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$1.31 +58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tivic Health Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TIVC

Frequently asked questions

Is Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.31 versus the last price from Jun 29, 2026 of $0.5500, about +138% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TIVC?
Our model-based fair value for Tivic Health Systems Inc is $1.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 29, 2026): $0.5500.
What is the quality score of TIVC?
Tivic Health Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 11/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9800, optimistic scenario $1.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tivic Health Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.31, about +138% upside versus the last price from Jun 29, 2026 of $0.5500 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.9800, optimistic scenario $1.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
Tivic Health Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $482K (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tivic Health Systems Inc it is $1.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.5500. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tivic Health Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TIVC trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.5500, fair value $1.31, a gap of about +138% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TIVC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.31). For Tivic Health Systems Inc the two are $0.7600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tivic Health Systems Inc worth?
The market values Tivic Health Systems Inc at about $4.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.5500; our models calculate a fair value of $1.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TIVC?
Our models span a range for Tivic Health Systems Inc: cautious scenario $0.9800, base $1.31, optimistic $1.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.5500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tivic Health Systems Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −82.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 11/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TIVC from its 52-week high?
Tivic Health Systems Inc trades at $0.5500, about 87% below its 52-week high of $4.38 and 7% above the low of $0.5140 (as of Jun 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tivic Health Systems Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tivic Health Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.5500, calculated fair value $1.31 (+138%), Quality Score 11/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TIVC calculated?
We run Tivic Health Systems Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tivic Health Systems Inc currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 29, 2026 and stands at $0.5500. Our model-based fair value is $1.31, about +138% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tivic Health Systems Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (11/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.9800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.9800 to $1.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tivic Health Systems Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
The market capitalisation of Tivic Health Systems Inc is $4.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tivic Health Systems Inc is 8.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
Earnings per share at Tivic Health Systems Inc are $−6.92. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tivic Health Systems Inc is −82.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tivic Health Systems Inc is −118% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)?
Revenue at Tivic Health Systems Inc is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −40.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC) generate?
The free cash flow of Tivic Health Systems Inc is −$7.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC) hold?
Tivic Health Systems Inc holds more cash than debt, $6.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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