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Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tianjin Development Holdings $0.51, price $0.26, upside +99.8%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN HK0882007260

TD Tianjin Development Holdings logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Tianjin Development Holdings

TJSCF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $0.5140 · Strongly undervalued (+99.8%)
!Quality 43/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.3114 $0.1208 Fair Value $0.5140 Apr 2016 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1208 – $0.3114 · fair‑value band $0.5100 – $0.6390 · the $0.2572 price screens below the $0.5140 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Tianjin Development Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, supplies water, heat, thermal power, and electricity in China and Hong Kong. It operates through six segments: Utilities, Pharmaceutical, Hotel, Electrical and Mechanical, Port Services, and Elevators and Escalators.

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Tianjin Development Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, supplies water, heat, thermal power, and electricity in China and Hong Kong. It operates through six segments: Utilities, Pharmaceutical, Hotel, Electrical and Mechanical, Port Services, and Elevators and Escalators. The company engages in the supply of tap water, installation and maintenance of water pipes, technical consultancy, and retail and wholesale of water pipes and related parts, as well as water testing services; distribution of steam and heat for industrial, commercial, and residential customers; and supply of electricity, construction of electricity supply network, application of technology related to new energy and renewable energy, and electricity construction and related technical services, as well as energy storage technology services. It also manufactures and sells chemical drugs, Chinese medicines, and other healthcare products; researches and develops medicine technology and products; designs, manufactures, and prints pharmaceutical packaging; and sells other paper-based packaging materials. In addition, the company operates the Courtyard Hotel by Marriott Hong Kong; manufactures and sells hydroelectric equipment and large-scale pump units; provides port services; and manufactures and sells elevators and escalators. Further, it is involved in the finance lease business. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Tianjin Development Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Tsinlien Group Company Limited.

Stock analysis

Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF) currently trades at $0.2572, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5140, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.69 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the $0.2572 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.2900, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.5100 (bear) to $0.6390 (bull), the price of $0.2572 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Tianjin Development Holdings reported revenue of HK$3.2B in FY2025 versus HK$3.5B in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$428M in FY2025, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $276M · P/E ratio 3.7 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin −7.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 100%, TJSCF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5100 Fair Value $0.5140 Bull $0.6390
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $1.02 $0.9700 $0.9600 76
Owner Earnings $0.9500 $1.69 $2.96 74
Gordon GGM $0.1800 $0.3000 $0.3900 68
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $0.9500 $1.69 $2.96 74
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.3500 $2.32 $3.24 63
Lynch FV $0.6800 $0.9700 $1.26 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1800 $0.3000 $0.3900 68
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1800 $0.2900 $0.3200 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.8000 $1.07 $1.33 63
P/B Multiple $0.6500 $0.8600 $1.08 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.7700 $1.04 $1.55 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.02 $0.9700 $0.9600 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 11/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.6% vs −2.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → −3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.2%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

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Compare Tianjin Development Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 360 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside +98.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.3% · Below median
Return on assets −0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −7.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 60.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.13× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.15× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.61× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 12.2× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Tianjin Development Holdings · Fair Value
$0.5140 +50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tianjin Development Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TJSCF

Frequently asked questions

Is Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5140 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.2572, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TJSCF?
Our model-based fair value for Tianjin Development Holdings is $0.5140 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.2572.
What is the quality score of TJSCF?
Tianjin Development Holdings has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5140 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5100, optimistic scenario $0.6390. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tianjin Development Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5140, about +100% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.2572 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.5100, optimistic scenario $0.6390. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
Tianjin Development Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tianjin Development Holdings it is $0.5140 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.2572. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tianjin Development Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TJSCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2572, fair value $0.5140, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TJSCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2572); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5140). For Tianjin Development Holdings the two are $0.2568 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tianjin Development Holdings worth?
The market values Tianjin Development Holdings at about $276M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.2572; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5140 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TJSCF?
Our models span a range for Tianjin Development Holdings: cautious scenario $0.5100, base $0.5140, optimistic $0.6390 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.2572). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TJSCF?
Tianjin Development Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.5140 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tianjin Development Holdings (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TJSCF from its 52-week high?
Tianjin Development Holdings trades at $0.2572, at its 52-week high of $0.2572 and 11% above the low of $0.2325 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5140 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tianjin Development Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tianjin Development Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.2572, calculated fair value $0.5140 (+100%), Quality Score 43/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TJSCF calculated?
We run Tianjin Development Holdings through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5140, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tianjin Development Holdings currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.2572. Our model-based fair value is $0.5140, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tianjin Development Holdings right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.5100). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Tianjin Development Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
The market capitalisation of Tianjin Development Holdings is $276M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tianjin Development Holdings is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
Earnings per share at Tianjin Development Holdings are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
The net margin of Tianjin Development Holdings is 13.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tianjin Development Holdings is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tianjin Development Holdings is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
The operating margin of Tianjin Development Holdings is −7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
Revenue at Tianjin Development Holdings is growing −4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF)?
Earnings per share at Tianjin Development Holdings are growing −67.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF) generate?
The free cash flow of Tianjin Development Holdings is −HK$32.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tianjin Development Holdings (TJSCF) hold?
Tianjin Development Holdings holds more cash than debt, HK$885M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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