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Tikehau Capital (TKKHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tikehau Capital $20.27, price $18.95, upside +7.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Tikehau Capital
TKKHF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $20.27 · Fairly valued (+7.0%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y +0.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 29/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.81 – $24.76 · fair‑value band $15.86 – $38.73 · the $18.95 price screens below the $20.27 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Tikehau Capital is an alternative asset management group with 46.1 billion euro of assets under management (as of 30 June 2024). Tikehau Capital has developed a wide range of expertise across four asset classes (private debt, real assets, private equity, and capital markets strategies), as well as multi-asset and special opportunities strategies.
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Tikehau Capital is an alternative asset management group with 46.1 billion euro of assets under management (as of 30 June 2024). Tikehau Capital has developed a wide range of expertise across four asset classes (private debt, real assets, private equity, and capital markets strategies), as well as multi-asset and special opportunities strategies. Tikehau Capital provides financing solutions to companies it invests in and seeks to create long-term value for its investors. Leveraging its strong equity base (3.1 billion euro of shareholders' equity as of 30 June 2024), the firm invests its own capital alongside its investor-clients within each of its strategies. The firm prefers to invest between $0.69 million and $324 million in companies having sales value between $12.11 million and $1080 million. Tikehau Capital has 723 employees (as of 31 March 2026). Tikehau Capital is based in Paris, France with across its 17 offices in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and North America. Tikehau Capital is listed in compartment A of the regulated Euronext Paris market (ISIN code: FR0013230612; Ticker: TKO.FP).
Stock analysis
Tikehau Capital (TKKHF) currently trades at $18.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.27, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $31.07 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the $18.95 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $11.54, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.86 (bear) to $38.73 (bull), the price of $18.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Tikehau Capital reported revenue of €619M in FY2025 versus €568M in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was €136M in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B · P/E ratio 72.9 · P/S ratio 16.0 · EPS (TTM) $0.2600 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 7%, TKKHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.86
Fair Value $20.27
Bull $38.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$15.34
$15.45
$16.07
74
Growth DCF
$23.16
$54.52
$105.04
71
DDM Multi-Stage
$7.97
$13.72
$16.75
65
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
5Y P/E Exit
$5.41
$19.30
$37.03
63
10Y P/E Exit
$11.70
$29.44
$55.85
58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$6.04
$42.10
$59.08
61
Lynch FV
$21.75
$31.07
$40.39
59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$7.97
$15.87
$24.03
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$7.97
$13.72
$16.75
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$8.65
$11.54
$14.42
63
P/B Multiple
$11.32
$15.09
$18.86
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$10.24
$13.72
$20.48
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$23.16
$54.52
$105.04
71
Rev-Margin DCF
$4.77
$12.59
$28.34
64
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$15.34
$15.45
$16.07
74
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
66/100
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Profitability
33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’19
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.8% vs −5.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.71% → 49%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.5% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+43.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−5.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)−4.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)−3.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)−2.4%
Watch TKKHF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- Tikehau Capital: Disclosure of Shares Repurchases from 18 September 2026 to 24 September 2026
- Tikehau Capital: Disclosure of Shares Repurchases from 11 September 2026 to 17 September 2026
- Tikehau Capital: Information Relating to the Total Number of Voting Rights and Shares as of 31 August 2026
- Tikehau Capital: Disclosure of Shares Repurchases From 4 September 2026 to 10 September 2026
Compare Tikehau Capital with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc BX | $112.09 | $52.29 | −53% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $93.18 | $29.26 | −69% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | $36.87 | $13.45 | −64% |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $116.06 | $197.23 | +70% |
| State Street Corporation STT | $177.78 | $139.37 | −22% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $494.82 | $595.40 | +20% |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $122.01 | $103.68 | −15% |
| Northern Trust Corporation NTRS | $175.73 | $123.42 | −30% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $161.16 | $317.27 | +97% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €68.10 | €136.20 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Tikehau Capital (TKKHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.27 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $18.95, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TKKHF?
Our model-based fair value for Tikehau Capital is $20.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $18.95.
What is the quality score of TKKHF?
Tikehau Capital has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.86, optimistic scenario $38.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tikehau Capital stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.27, about +7% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $18.95 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $15.86, optimistic scenario $38.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
Tikehau Capital reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €425M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tikehau Capital pay a dividend?
Tikehau Capital currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tikehau Capital would have to grow free cash flow by +2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +108.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKKHF use?
Our models discount Tikehau Capital at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tikehau Capital that is +2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tikehau Capital (TKKHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tikehau Capital grew +108.9 % a year. The price currently implies +2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tikehau Capital (+2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.41 %: that much free cash flow Tikehau Capital produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tikehau Capital it is $20.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $18.95. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tikehau Capital stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TKKHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.95, fair value $20.27, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKKHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.27). For Tikehau Capital the two are $1.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tikehau Capital worth?
The market values Tikehau Capital at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $18.95; our models calculate a fair value of $20.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKKHF?
Our models span a range for Tikehau Capital: cautious scenario $15.86, base $20.27, optimistic $38.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $18.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKKHF?
Tikehau Capital trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 72.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.27 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 8.4, EV/EBITDA 28.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tikehau Capital (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.3%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKKHF from its 52-week high?
Tikehau Capital trades at $18.95, about 12% below its 52-week high of $21.53 and 13% above the low of $16.81 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tikehau Capital?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tikehau Capital stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $18.95, calculated fair value $20.27 (+7%), Quality Score 66/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKKHF calculated?
We run Tikehau Capital through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tikehau Capital currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $18.95. Our model-based fair value is $20.27, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tikehau Capital right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($15.86 to $38.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Tikehau Capital
How large is the market capitalisation of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
The market capitalisation of Tikehau Capital is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tikehau Capital is 16.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
Earnings per share at Tikehau Capital are $0.2600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 72.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
The dividend yield of Tikehau Capital is 4.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
The net margin of Tikehau Capital is 22.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tikehau Capital is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tikehau Capital is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
The operating margin of Tikehau Capital is −2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
Revenue at Tikehau Capital is growing −62.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tikehau Capital (TKKHF)?
Earnings per share at Tikehau Capital are growing +50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tikehau Capital (TKKHF) carry?
The net debt of Tikehau Capital is €1.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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