Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Top Group Software Ltd ILS 28.53, price ILS 9.51, upside +200.0%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5.66 ILS – 14.93 ILS · fair‑value band 17.99 ILS – 42.71 ILS · the 9.51 ILS price screens below the 28.53 ILS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Top Group Software Ltd develops and markets software products in Israel and internationally.
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Top Group Software Ltd develops and markets software products in Israel and internationally. The company provides engineering project management, a construction project control and management system; task management processes software solution for tracking and controlling organizational processes; and feedback management software system for managing customer experience. It also offers BI & analytics, an AI powered analytical tool for studying organizational information; Oracle EPM budget control, a solution for budget planning, control, forecasts, and report consolidation; automotive business solution; and GRC, a software solution for risk management, SOX, internal audit, cyber security, and privacy protection. In addition, the company provides Top NetSuite, a cloud ERP solution; PPM, an integrated system for managing projects, work plans, products, resources, and portfolios; supply chain management solution; product life cycle management solution; recruiting and outsourcing solution; recruitment management and performance evaluation software; Imanage, a document management software; ERP for construction and real estate; and Cligal, legal document management software. Further, it offers SmartX, an integration solution for IT systems; RapidResponse cloud system; and Nipendo, a procurement process automation and supplier customer management solution. The company was formerly known as Top Ramdor Systems & Computers Co. (1990) Ltd and changed its name to Top Group Software Ltd in June 2025. Top Group Software Ltd was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.
Stock analysis
Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG) currently trades at 9.51 ILS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 28.53 ILS, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 38.40 ILS per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 9.51 ILS price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 3.92 ILS, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 17.99 ILS (bear) to 42.71 ILS (bull), the price of 9.51 ILS sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Top Group Software Ltd reported revenue of 292M ILS in FY2025 versus 177M ILS in FY2021, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was 16.1M ILS in FY2025, compounding +3.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 201M ILS (≈ $66.3M) · P/S ratio 0.72 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 19.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% · Operating margin 8.8% · Revenue (TTM) 295M ILS.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 53% fair-value upside, at 200%, TOPG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 17.99 ILSFair Value 28.53 ILSBull 42.71 ILS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs 12%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 498 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.77× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Top Group Software Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOPG
Frequently asked questions
Is Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 28.53 ILS versus a price of 9.51 ILS, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOPG?
Our model-based fair value for Top Group Software Ltd is 28.53 ILS (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9.51 ILS.
What is the quality score of TOPG?
Top Group Software Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 28.53 ILS (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 17.99 ILS, optimistic scenario 42.71 ILS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Top Group Software Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 28.53 ILS, about +200% upside versus a price of 9.51 ILS (undervalued). Cautious scenario 17.99 ILS, optimistic scenario 42.71 ILS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
Top Group Software Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 295M ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Top Group Software Ltd pay a dividend?
Top Group Software Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Top Group Software Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOPG use?
Our models discount Top Group Software Ltd at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Top Group Software Ltd that is -11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Top Group Software Ltd grew +18.3 % a year. The price currently implies -11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Top Group Software Ltd (-11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.12 %: that much free cash flow Top Group Software Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Top Group Software Ltd it is 28.53 ILS per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 9.51 ILS. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Top Group Software Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TOPG trades below its calculated fair value: price 9.51 ILS, fair value 28.53 ILS, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOPG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9.51 ILS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (28.53 ILS). For Top Group Software Ltd the two are 19.02 ILS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Top Group Software Ltd worth?
The market values Top Group Software Ltd at about 201M ILS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 9.51 ILS; our models calculate a fair value of 28.53 ILS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOPG?
Our models span a range for Top Group Software Ltd: cautious scenario 17.99 ILS, base 28.53 ILS, optimistic 42.71 ILS per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 9.51 ILS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Top Group Software Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 19.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOPG from its 52-week high?
Top Group Software Ltd trades at 9.51 ILS, about 35% below its 52-week high of 14.74 ILS and at the low of 9.51 ILS (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 28.53 ILS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Top Group Software Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Top Group Software Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 9.51 ILS, calculated fair value 28.53 ILS (+200%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOPG calculated?
We run Top Group Software Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 28.53 ILS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Top Group Software Ltd currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 9.51 ILS. Our model-based fair value is 28.53 ILS, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Top Group Software Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (17.99 ILS). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (17.99 ILS to 42.71 ILS) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG) come from?
Earnings per share at Top Group Software Ltd grew +11.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.9 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Top Group Software Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
The market capitalisation of Top Group Software Ltd is 201M ILS (≈ $66.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Top Group Software Ltd is 0.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
The dividend yield of Top Group Software Ltd is 4.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
The net margin of Top Group Software Ltd is 5.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Top Group Software Ltd is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Top Group Software Ltd is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
The operating margin of Top Group Software Ltd is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG)?
Revenue at Top Group Software Ltd is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Top Group Software Ltd (TOPG) carry?
The net debt of Top Group Software Ltd is 62.9M ILS (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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