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Top Group (TOPG) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · Il · Market cap 212M ILS

TG Top Group TOPG · TA
Price9.99 ILS
Fair Value21.28 ILS
Upside+113.1%
Quality67/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 5.5% net margin
generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/12)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: High Range 15.96 ILS – 26.59 ILS Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Share price +4.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 113% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (15.96 ILS). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

14.35 ILS 4.48 ILS Fair Value 21.28 ILS Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 4.48 ILS – 14.35 ILS · fair‑value band 15.96 ILS – 26.59 ILS · the 9.99 ILS price screens below the 21.28 ILS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Top Group (TOPG) currently trades at 9.99 ILS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 21.28 ILS, implying the stock looks roughly 113.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Top Group generated revenue of 295M ILS at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.9%. Net debt stands at 62.9M ILS. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 15.96 ILS (bear case) to 26.59 ILS (bull case); at 9.99 ILS, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 113%, TOPG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 3.98 ILS 5.08 ILS 11.31 ILS 76
Growth DCF 20.12 ILS 31.22 ILS 48.58 ILS 72
Gordon GGM 2.47 ILS 4.13 ILS 5.36 ILS 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 21.34 ILS 29.09 ILS 51.71 ILS 38
Owner Earnings 16.53 ILS 30.51 ILS 54.89 ILS 31
5Y Revenue Exit 17.36 ILS 27.16 ILS 47.56 ILS 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 25.45 ILS 43.49 ILS 78.84 ILS 41
5Y P/E Exit 19.20 ILS 37.78 ILS 62.64 ILS 38
10Y Revenue Exit 18.39 ILS 34.22 ILS 43.29 ILS 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 23.85 ILS 49.07 ILS 92.65 ILS 37
10Y P/E Exit 19.95 ILS 37.60 ILS 65.59 ILS 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 5.17 ILS 36.03 ILS 50.57 ILS 54
Lynch FV 18.62 ILS 26.59 ILS 34.57 ILS 50
PEG = 1.0 18.62 ILS 26.59 ILS 34.57 ILS 46
EPV 9.90 ILS 10.84 ILS 11.61 ILS 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 2.47 ILS 4.13 ILS 5.36 ILS 70
DDM Multi-Stage 2.47 ILS 3.92 ILS 4.44 ILS 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 15.96 ILS 21.28 ILS 26.59 ILS 63
P/S Multiple 9.69 ILS 12.92 ILS 16.15 ILS 58
P/B Multiple 9.69 ILS 12.92 ILS 16.15 ILS 55
EV/EBIT 26.23 ILS 34.29 ILS 42.36 ILS 53
EV/EBITDA 27.67 ILS 36.21 ILS 44.75 ILS 54
EV/Revenue 14.27 ILS 19.51 ILS 24.75 ILS 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 2.02 ILS 2.70 ILS 4.03 ILS 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 20.12 ILS 31.22 ILS 48.58 ILS 72
Rev-Margin DCF 18.86 ILS 30.77 ILS 55.75 ILS 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income 3.98 ILS 5.08 ILS 11.31 ILS 76
ROIC Compounder 11.38 ILS 14.46 ILS 17.91 ILS 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 26.88 ILS 38.40 ILS 49.92 ILS 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (38.40 ILS) versus Asset-Based (2.70 ILS). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 295M ILS
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.9%
Net margin 5.5%
Return on equity 19.9%
Free cash flow 34.5M ILS FY2025
Operating margin 8.8%
More key figures
Dividend yield 0.0%
Net debt 62.9M ILS FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Top Group Software Ltd develops and markets software products in Israel and internationally. The company provides engineering project management, a construction project control and management system; task management processes software solution for tracking and controlling organizational processes; and feedback management software system for managing …

Full company description

Top Group Software Ltd develops and markets software products in Israel and internationally. The company provides engineering project management, a construction project control and management system; task management processes software solution for tracking and controlling organizational processes; and feedback management software system for managing customer experience. It also offers BI & analytics, an AI powered analytical tool for studying organizational information; Oracle EPM budget control, a solution for budget planning, control, forecasts, and report consolidation; automotive business solution; and GRC, a software solution for risk management, SOX, internal audit, cyber security, and privacy protection. In addition, the company provides Top NetSuite, a cloud ERP solution; PPM, an integrated system for managing projects, work plans, products, resources, and portfolios; supply chain management solution; product life cycle management solution; recruiting and outsourcing solution; recruitment management and performance evaluation software; Imanage, a document management software; ERP for construction and real estate; and Cligal, legal document management software. Further, it offers SmartX, an integration solution for IT systems; RapidResponse cloud system; and Nipendo, a procurement process automation and supplier customer management solution. The company was formerly known as Top Ramdor Systems & Computers Co. (1990) Ltd and changed its name to Top Group Software Ltd in June 2025. Top Group Software Ltd was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Top Group reported revenue of 292M ILS in FY2025 versus 177M ILS in FY2021, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was 16.1M ILS in FY2025, compounding +3.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
292M ILS
Latest YoY
+8.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.3%
Avg. growth/yr (16Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+53.7%
Revenue +13.4%/yr
FY21 177M ILS
FY22 214M ILS
FY23 237M ILS
FY24 269M ILS
FY25 292M ILS
Net income +3.4%/yr
FY21 14.1M ILS
FY22 14.9M ILS
FY23 12.1M ILS
FY24 15.5M ILS
FY25 16.1M ILS
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +14.9 pp

of which total revenue +16.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.6 pp

EBIT margin +3.3 pp
Tax rate −2.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −4.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Top Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOPG

Peer Group

Information Technology Services · 475 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +113% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.81× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.23× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 0.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 21
FUTURE 20 · sector 31
PAST 80 · sector 37
HEALTH 0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 1 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $235.92 $143.90 -39%
Accenture plc ACNN 2,460 MXN 250.95 MXN -90%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,156 ₹1,457 +26%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,204 ₹1,230 +2%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹178.43 ₹226.81 +27%
Tech Mahindra Limited TECHM ₹1,455 ₹1,086 -25%
Samsung SDS Co 018260 199,300 KRW 196,390 KRW -1%
Persistent Systems Limited PERSISTENT ₹5,059 ₹2,364 -53%
Hyundai Autoever Corporation 307950 393,000 KRW 133,088 KRW -66%
Coforge Limited COFORGE ₹1,541 ₹702.84 -54%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Top Group (TOPG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 21.28 ILS versus a price of 9.99 ILS, about +113% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOPG?
Our model-based fair value for Top Group is 21.28 ILS (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 9.99 ILS.
What is the quality score of TOPG?
Top Group has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Top Group (TOPG)?
Top Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 295M ILS (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TOPG?
The net profit margin of Top Group is about 5.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Top Group pay a dividend?
Top Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.04% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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