Tryg A/S (TRYG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tryg A/S stock DKK 67.89, price DKK 166, that is 59.1% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 108.14 – kr 165.90 · fair‑value band kr 50.92 – kr 84.86 · the kr 165.90 price screens above the kr 67.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Tryg A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of insurance products and services to private, small and medium sized commercial, and corporate customers in Denmark, the United States, rest of Nordic, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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It operates through Private and Commercial segments.
The company offers insurance products, such as motor, content, house, accident, travel, motorcycle, and pet and health, as well as property, liability, workers' compensation, and health under the Trygg-Hansa, Atlantica, Bilsport & MC, and Moderna Djurförsäkringar brands.
It sells its products through its sales agents, online, call centers, franchises, bancassurance, car dealers, real estate agents, insurance brokers, and partners. The company was founded in 1731 and is headquartered in Ballerup, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Tryg A/S (TRYG) currently trades at kr 165.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 67.89, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of kr 140.23 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the kr 165.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 9.24, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 50.92 (bear) to kr 84.86 (bull), the price of kr 165.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tryg A/S reported revenue of 41.4B DKK in FY2025 versus 23.9B DKK in FY2021, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was 5.3B DKK in FY2025, compounding +14.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 98.9B DKK (≈ $14.8B) Large · P/E ratio 21.5 · P/S ratio 2.26 · EPS (TTM) kr 7.73 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 10.8% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −59%, TRYG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 50.92Fair Value kr 67.89Bullkr 84.86
Price kr 165.90 · Downside -59.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Per share before 2021divided by the spin-off factor 1.2849
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.1% vs 5.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.6% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (55 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Tryg shows strength through disciplined underwriting that produces record results, yet lacks identifiable durable advantages over peers and depends on temporary market conditions.
Main risk: A Danish Supreme Court ruling that lowers the threshold for work injury compensation could increase claims payouts and squeeze margins on Tryg's commercial insurance products.
Bull case: Tryg could adapt its underwriting and pricing models to account for higher injury claims while leveraging its AI tools to improve risk assessment and maintain profitability in commercial lines.
Bear case: If compensation rules tighten further or similar rulings proliferate, Tryg might face sustained higher claims costs that erode margins on its business insurance offerings without offsetting premium growth.
Tryg posted its highest-ever quarterly insurance service result, driven by underwriting discipline and a benign claims environment in the private segment. As broad premium increases ease, the group is leaning harder on new partnerships and precision pricing to sustain expansion. Will tighter execution on these fronts outweigh the fading boost from earlier rate hikes?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−59.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.5% · Below median
Return on assets5.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.50× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.26× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow15.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.61× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)50· sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tryg A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRYG
Frequently asked questions
Is Tryg A/S (TRYG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 67.89 versus a price of kr 165.90, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRYG?
Our model-based fair value for Tryg A/S is kr 67.89 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 165.90.
What is the quality score of TRYG?
Tryg A/S has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 67.89 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 50.92, optimistic scenario kr 84.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tryg A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 67.89, about 59% lower versus a price of kr 165.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 50.92, optimistic scenario kr 84.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
Tryg A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 43.7B DKK (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Tryg A/S pay a dividend?
Tryg A/S currently shows a dividend yield of 5.12% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tryg A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRYG use?
Our models discount Tryg A/S at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tryg A/S that is +0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tryg A/S (TRYG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tryg A/S grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies +0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tryg A/S (TRYG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tryg A/S (+0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.46 %: that much free cash flow Tryg A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tryg A/S it is kr 67.89 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of kr 165.90. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tryg A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, TRYG trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 165.90, fair value kr 67.89, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRYG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 165.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 67.89). For Tryg A/S the two are kr 98.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tryg A/S worth?
The market values Tryg A/S at about 98.9B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is kr 165.90; our models calculate a fair value of kr 67.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRYG?
Our models span a range for Tryg A/S: cautious scenario kr 50.92, base kr 67.89, optimistic kr 84.86 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price kr 165.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRYG?
Tryg A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 67.89 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 23.1. Other multiples: PEG 4.6, P/B 2.5, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 14.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TRYG?
The PEG ratio of Tryg A/S is 4.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tryg A/S (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 12.5%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRYG from its 52-week high?
Tryg A/S trades at kr 165.90, at its 52-week high of kr 165.90 and 18% above the low of kr 140.30 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 67.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tryg A/S?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tryg A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price kr 165.90, calculated fair value kr 67.89 (−59%), Quality Score 70/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRYG calculated?
We run Tryg A/S through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 67.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Tryg A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was kr 165.90. Our model-based fair value is kr 67.89, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tryg A/S right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 84.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (70/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Tryg A/S (TRYG) come from?
Earnings per share at Tryg A/S grew +1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tryg A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
The market capitalisation of Tryg A/S is 98.9B DKK (≈ $14.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tryg A/S is 2.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
Earnings per share at Tryg A/S are kr 7.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
The dividend yield of Tryg A/S is 5.1% (payout 110%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
The net margin of Tryg A/S is 10.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tryg A/S is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tryg A/S is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
The operating margin of Tryg A/S is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
Revenue at Tryg A/S is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tryg A/S (TRYG)?
Earnings per share at Tryg A/S are growing +10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tryg A/S (TRYG) carry?
The net debt of Tryg A/S is 2.8B DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026