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Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Zephyr Energy plc $0.03, price $0.04, upside -29.8%, quality 22 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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ZE
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Zephyr Energy plc
ZPHRF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $0.0279 · Overvalued (−29.8%)
!Quality 22/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +59.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -190.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0273 – $0.1100 · the $0.0398 price screens above the $0.0279 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Zephyr Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in the United States. Its flagship property is the Paradox Project, which covers an area of approximately 46,000 gross acres located in Utah, the United States.
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Zephyr Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in the United States. Its flagship property is the Paradox Project, which covers an area of approximately 46,000 gross acres located in Utah, the United States. The company was formerly known as Rose Petroleum plc and changed its name to Zephyr Energy plc in August 2020. Zephyr Energy plc was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Newbury, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF) currently trades at $0.0398, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0279, 29.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Zephyr Energy plc reported revenue of $24.3M in FY2024 versus $0 in FY2020. Reported net income was −$19.6M in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap $95.0M · P/S ratio 6.11 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin −80.6% · Return on equity −49.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin −102% · Revenue (TTM) $15.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −30%, ZPHRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0279
Fair Value $0.0279
Bull $0.0279
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA
$0.0200
$0.0200
$0.0200
67
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0100
$0.0200
$0.0200
55
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$0.0200
$0.0200
$0.0200
67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0100
$0.0200
$0.0200
55
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
22/100
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Profitability
5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
2
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
48
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
21
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
18/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.3%
’21
’22
’23
’24
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.8% (2021) → −12.9% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0279 versus a price of $0.0398, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZPHRF?
Our model-based fair value for Zephyr Energy plc is $0.0279 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0398.
What is the quality score of ZPHRF?
Zephyr Energy plc has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0279 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zephyr Energy plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0279, about −30% upside versus a price of $0.0398 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
Zephyr Energy plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zephyr Energy plc it is $0.0279 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0398. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zephyr Energy plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ZPHRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0398, fair value $0.0279, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZPHRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0398); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0279). For Zephyr Energy plc the two are $0.0119 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zephyr Energy plc worth?
The market values Zephyr Energy plc at about $95.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0398; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0279 per share.
How far is ZPHRF from its 52-week high?
Zephyr Energy plc trades at $0.0398, about 24% below its 52-week high of $0.0526 and 46% above the low of $0.0273 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0279 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zephyr Energy plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zephyr Energy plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0398, calculated fair value $0.0279 (−30%), Quality Score 22/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZPHRF calculated?
We run Zephyr Energy plc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0279, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Zephyr Energy plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.0398. Our model-based fair value is $0.0279, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zephyr Energy plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0279). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Zephyr Energy plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
The market capitalisation of Zephyr Energy plc is $95.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zephyr Energy plc is 6.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
Earnings per share at Zephyr Energy plc are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
The net margin of Zephyr Energy plc is −80.6% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zephyr Energy plc is −49.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zephyr Energy plc is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
The operating margin of Zephyr Energy plc is −102% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
Revenue at Zephyr Energy plc is growing −53.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +59.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF)?
Earnings per share at Zephyr Energy plc are growing −7.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Zephyr Energy plc is −$751K (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Zephyr Energy plc (ZPHRF) carry?
The net debt of Zephyr Energy plc is $16.1M (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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