Hannover Rück SE (HNR1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hannover Rück SE stock €216, price €306, that is 29.4% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €113.73 – €306.40 · fair‑value band €147.36 – €270.25 · the €306.40 price screens above the €216.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Hannover Rück SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides reinsurance products and services in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Europe, the United States, Asia, Australia, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Property & Casualty Reinsurance; and Life & Health Reinsurance segments.
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The company provides property and casualty reinsurance solutions for agricultural, livestock, and bloodstock; aviation and space; natural catastrophe; credit, surety, and political risks; cyber; digital; marine and upstream energy; natural catastrophes; advanced and facultative business, insurance-linked securities and structured reinsurance; and parametric solutions.
It also offers risk solutions in the areas of critical illness, disability, health, longevity, long term care, and mortality. In addition, the company offers group life, retirement, lifestyle, credit life, and Takaful reinsurance products.
Further, the company provides various financial solutions, including new-business financing; monetization of embedded value; reserve and solvency relief; and reinsurance and solvency II businesses.
The company was formerly known as Hannover Rückversicherung AG and changed its name to Hannover Rück SE in March 2013. Hannover Rück SE was founded in 1966 and is based in Hanover, Germany. Hannover Rück SE operates as a subsidiary of Talanx AG.
Stock analysis
Hannover Rück SE (HNR1) currently trades at €306.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €216.20, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €191.85 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €306.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €70.74, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €147.36 (bear) to €270.25 (bull), the price of €306.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hannover Rück SE reported revenue of €26.8B in FY2025 versus €26.3B in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was €2.6B in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €36.9B Large · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) €22.47 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −29%, HNR1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€147.36Fair Value €216.20Bull€270.25
Price €306.40 · Downside -29.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€8.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.5% vs 8.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 100%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.2% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (44 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Strong return on equity and cash conversion stand out as the main strength, while limited evidence of a durable moat together with reinsurance cycle exposure form the chief weakness.
Main risk: Growing insurance-linked securities and other alternative capital could provide cheaper capacity especially for catastrophe risks and thereby pressure prices or reduce demand for Hannover Re's traditional reinsurance treaties.
Bull case: Hannover Re could expand its own ILS platforms and capital-markets solutions to capture a larger share of the shifting capacity and maintain or grow overall margins.
Bear case: If alternative capital continues to grow faster and offers lower-cost solutions for key risks, Hannover Re might see reduced volumes or compressed margins in its core property-catastrophe and other traditional lines.
Hannover Re just priced a USD 450 million catastrophe bond covering US earthquake risks, upsizing from an initial 200 million target. This move expands its access to capital markets as a complement to traditional reinsurance amid softening prices in parts of the portfolio. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the added flexibility from alternative capital outweigh any pressure on core reinsurance margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Reinsurance · 22 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)12.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−23.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Reinsurance median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.86× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.63× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow6.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.76× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)89· sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)82· sector 82
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hannover Rück SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HNR1
Frequently asked questions
Is Hannover Rück SE (HNR1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €216.20 versus a price of €306.40, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HNR1?
Our model-based fair value for Hannover Rück SE is €216.20 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €306.40.
What is the quality score of HNR1?
Hannover Rück SE has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €216.20 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €147.36, optimistic scenario €270.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hannover Rück SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €216.20, about 29% lower versus a price of €306.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €147.36, optimistic scenario €270.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
Hannover Rück SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €22.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Hannover Rück SE pay a dividend?
Hannover Rück SE currently shows a dividend yield of 4.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hannover Rück SE would have to grow free cash flow by -13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HNR1 use?
Our models discount Hannover Rück SE at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hannover Rück SE that is -13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hannover Rück SE (HNR1) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hannover Rück SE grew +3.0 % a year. The price currently implies -13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hannover Rück SE (-13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.39 %: that much free cash flow Hannover Rück SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hannover Rück SE it is €216.20 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €306.40. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hannover Rück SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, HNR1 trades above its calculated fair value: price €306.40, fair value €216.20, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HNR1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€306.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€216.20). For Hannover Rück SE the two are €90.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hannover Rück SE worth?
The market values Hannover Rück SE at about €36.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €306.40; our models calculate a fair value of €216.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HNR1?
Our models span a range for Hannover Rück SE: cautious scenario €147.36, base €216.20, optimistic €270.25 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €306.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HNR1?
Hannover Rück SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €216.20 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 13.8. Other multiples: PEG 4.8, P/B 2.9, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
What is the PEG ratio of HNR1?
The PEG ratio of Hannover Rück SE is 4.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hannover Rück SE (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 22.2%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HNR1 from its 52-week high?
Hannover Rück SE trades at €306.40, at its 52-week high of €306.40 and 37% above the low of €223.15 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €216.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hannover Rück SE?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value MUV2, Swiss Re AG, Reinsurance Group, Everest Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hannover Rück SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €306.40, calculated fair value €216.20 (−29%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HNR1 calculated?
We run Hannover Rück SE through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €216.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Hannover Rück SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €306.40. Our model-based fair value is €216.20, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hannover Rück SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€270.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€147.36 to €270.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1) come from?
Earnings per share at Hannover Rück SE grew +5.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.7 %, EBIT margin +11.2 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hannover Rück SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
The market capitalisation of Hannover Rück SE is €36.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hannover Rück SE is 1.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
Earnings per share at Hannover Rück SE are €22.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
The dividend yield of Hannover Rück SE is 4.1% (payout 55.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
The net margin of Hannover Rück SE is 12.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hannover Rück SE is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hannover Rück SE is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
The operating margin of Hannover Rück SE is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
Revenue at Hannover Rück SE is growing −23.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +168%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hannover Rück SE (HNR1)?
Earnings per share at Hannover Rück SE are growing −16.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hannover Rück SE (HNR1) carry?
The net debt of Hannover Rück SE is €3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026