Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. stock $34.90, price $60.35, that is 42.2% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
46‑month range $15.00 – $65.63 · fair‑value band $26.37 – $46.58 · the $60.35 price screens above the $34.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides commercial property and casualty insurance coverages in the United States.
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It offers general liability, excess liability, and professional liability, as well as cyber and media liability insurance; commercial auto, group accident and health, property, agriculture, credit, and surety and workers' compensation; and property, agriculture, and credit specialty reinsurance.
The company was formerly known as Houston International Insurance Group, Ltd. and changed its name to Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. in November 2020. Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) currently trades at $60.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.90, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $37.27 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $60.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.85, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $26.37 (bear) to $46.58 (bull), the price of $60.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $536M in FY2021, a compound +27.4%/yr. Reported net income was $170M in FY2025, compounding +45.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B Mid · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) $4.30 · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 15.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −42%, SKWD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$26.37Fair Value $34.90Bull$46.58
Price $60.35 · Downside -42.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.69 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $94,200, on May 21, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $465,233.
SaleThomas N SchmittCPO, Skyward Group3× since Dec 11, 2025: 11,101 shares, avg. $49.45$548,894Jun 12, 2026
BuyAnthony J KuczinskiDirector2× since Feb 27, 2026: 7,000 shares, avg. $47.67$333,670May 21, 2026
SaleGena L AsheDirector740 shares at $46.35$34,299May 11, 2026
BuyChristopher Locke PeirceDirector3,200 shares at $47.30$151,360Mar 2, 2026
BuyTaryn Leonie McHargCFO - Apollo200 shares at $46.60$9,320Feb 27, 2026
BuyAndrew S RobinsonChairman & CEO, Skyward Group, Director22,100 shares at $46.76$1.0MFeb 27, 2026
SaleSandip A KapadiaHead of Actuarial2× since Dec 12, 2025: 7,716 shares, avg. $50.01$385,907Dec 18, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
’12
’13
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+29.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−21% → 15%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−27.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −29.6% a year for the price and +9.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Skyward's main strength lies in its decade of experience expanding autonomous vehicle insurance into the US primary market, while its main weak point remains thin evidence of any durable competitive advantage in a softening property and casualty environment.
Main risk: A softening property and casualty market threatens to constrain growth from the autonomous vehicle insurance push and pressure underwriting margins across specialty lines.
Skyward is expanding ibott’s autonomous vehicle insurance solutions directly into the US primary market, drawing on more than a decade of experience in that niche. This push comes amid a softening property and casualty market overall. Can the specialty focus and new capabilities deliver enough growth to stand out, or will they run into the same pressures hitting traditional lines?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SKWD
Frequently asked questions
Is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.90 versus a price of $60.35, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SKWD?
Our model-based fair value for Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is $34.90 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $60.35.
What is the quality score of SKWD?
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.90 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.37, optimistic scenario $46.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.90, about 42% lower versus a price of $60.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $26.37, optimistic scenario $46.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -27.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SKWD use?
Our models discount Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. that is -27.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. grew +25.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -27.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (-27.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.93 %: that much free cash flow Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. it is $34.90 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $60.35. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SKWD trades above its calculated fair value: price $60.35, fair value $34.90, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SKWD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($60.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.90). For Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. the two are $25.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $60.35; our models calculate a fair value of $34.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SKWD?
Our models span a range for Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $26.37, base $34.90, optimistic $46.58 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $60.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SKWD?
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SKWD?
The PEG ratio of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 17.1%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SKWD from its 52-week high?
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. trades at $60.35, about 8% below its 52-week high of $65.63 and 46% above the low of $41.26 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $60.35, calculated fair value $34.90 (−42%), Quality Score 61/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SKWD calculated?
We run Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. through 4 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $34.90 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $60.35. Our model-based fair value is $34.90, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
The market capitalisation of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is 1.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
Earnings per share at Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. are $4.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
The net margin of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is 10.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
The operating margin of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
Revenue at Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
Earnings per share at Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. are growing −0.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) hold?
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $48.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 8, 2026