PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of PICC Property & Casualty-H HK$18.92, price HK$16.75, upside +13.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.71 – HK$18.59 · fair‑value band HK$14.75 – HK$29.78 · the HK$16.75 price screens below the HK$18.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in property and casualty insurance business in People's Republic of China. It operates through six segments: motor vehicle, accidental injury and health, agriculture, Liability, Commercial Property, and Other.
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PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in property and casualty insurance business in People's Republic of China. It operates through six segments: motor vehicle, accidental injury and health, agriculture, Liability, Commercial Property, and Other. The company offers motor vehicle, commercial property, cargo, liability, accidental injury, short-term health, agriculture, credit, surety, household property, marine hull, and other insurance products. It also provides reinsurance, investment and funds application, insurance agency services, training services, IT services, and property management services, etc. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Beijing, China. PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited.
Stock analysis
PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328) currently trades at HK$16.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.92, implying the stock looks roughly 11.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$18.01 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$16.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$8.62, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$14.75 (bear) to HK$29.78 (bull), the price of HK$16.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PICC Property & Casualty-H reported revenue of 512B CNY in FY2025 versus 418B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was 39.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +15.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$373B (≈ $47.5B) · P/E ratio 6.7 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.10 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 40.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 13%, 2328 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$14.75Fair Value HK$18.92Bull HK$29.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3084 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.8% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
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Is PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.92 versus a price of HK$16.75, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2328?
Our model-based fair value for PICC Property & Casualty-H is HK$18.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$16.75.
What is the quality score of 2328?
PICC Property & Casualty-H has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$18.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$14.75, optimistic scenario HK$29.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PICC Property & Casualty-H stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$18.92, about +13% upside versus a price of HK$16.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$14.75, optimistic scenario HK$29.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
PICC Property & Casualty-H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 545B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does PICC Property & Casualty-H pay a dividend?
PICC Property & Casualty-H currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PICC Property & Casualty-H would have to grow free cash flow by -14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2328 use?
Our models discount PICC Property & Casualty-H at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PICC Property & Casualty-H that is -14.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PICC Property & Casualty-H grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies -14.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PICC Property & Casualty-H (-14.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.98 %: that much free cash flow PICC Property & Casualty-H produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PICC Property & Casualty-H it is HK$18.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$16.75. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PICC Property & Casualty-H stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2328 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$16.75, fair value HK$18.92, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2328?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$16.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$18.92). For PICC Property & Casualty-H the two are HK$2.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PICC Property & Casualty-H worth?
The market values PICC Property & Casualty-H at about HK$373B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$16.75; our models calculate a fair value of HK$18.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2328?
Our models span a range for PICC Property & Casualty-H: cautious scenario HK$14.75, base HK$18.92, optimistic HK$29.78 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$16.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2328?
PICC Property & Casualty-H trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$18.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 2328?
The PEG ratio of PICC Property & Casualty-H is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
Balance-sheet figures for PICC Property & Casualty-H (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.7%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2328 from its 52-week high?
PICC Property & Casualty-H trades at HK$16.75, about 10% below its 52-week high of HK$18.59 and 24% above the low of HK$13.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$18.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PICC Property & Casualty-H?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PICC Property & Casualty-H stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$16.75, calculated fair value HK$18.92 (+13%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2328 calculated?
We run PICC Property & Casualty-H through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$18.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. PICC Property & Casualty-H currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$16.75. Our model-based fair value is HK$18.92, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PICC Property & Casualty-H right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$14.75 to HK$29.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328) come from?
Earnings per share at PICC Property & Casualty-H grew +6.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +17.2 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −16.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PICC Property & Casualty-H
How large is the market capitalisation of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
The market capitalisation of PICC Property & Casualty-H is HK$373B (≈ $47.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PICC Property & Casualty-H is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
Earnings per share at PICC Property & Casualty-H are HK$1.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
The dividend yield of PICC Property & Casualty-H is 4.1% (payout 61.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
The net margin of PICC Property & Casualty-H is 7.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PICC Property & Casualty-H is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PICC Property & Casualty-H is 40.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
The operating margin of PICC Property & Casualty-H is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
Revenue at PICC Property & Casualty-H is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328)?
Earnings per share at PICC Property & Casualty-H are growing +16.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PICC Property & Casualty-H (2328) carry?
The net debt of PICC Property & Casualty-H is 49.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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