Unum Group (UNM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Unum Group stock $61.88, price $74.79, that is 17.3% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.46 – $96.57 · fair‑value band $47.45 – $68.05 · the $74.79 price screens above the $61.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Unum Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial protection benefit solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Poland. It operates through Unum US, Unum International, Colonial Life, and Closed Block segments.
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The company offers group long-term and short-term disability, group life, and accidental death and dismemberment products; supplemental and voluntary products, such as voluntary benefits, individual disability, and dental and vision products; and accident, sickness, disability, life, and cancer and critical illness products.
It also provides group pensions, individual life and corporate-owned life insurance, reinsurance pools and management operations, and other miscellaneous products. The company sells its products to employers for the benefit of employees.
It sells its products through field sales personnel, independent brokers, consultants, and independent contractor agent sales force and brokers. Unum Group was formerly known as UnumProvident Corporation and changed its name to Unum Group in March 2007.
The company was founded in 1848 and is based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Unum Group (UNM) currently trades at $74.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.88, 17% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $61.88 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $74.79 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $28.57, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $47.45 (bear) to $68.05 (bull), the price of $74.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Unum Group reported revenue of $13.1B in FY2025 versus $11.8B in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was $739M in FY2025, compounding −6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.4B Large · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) $4.28 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −17%, UNM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$47.45Fair Value $61.88Bull$68.05
Price $74.79 · Downside -17.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.03 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $988,418 and none bought.
SaleTimothy F KeaneyDirector2× since Feb 18, 2026: 8,800 shares, avg. $83.06$730,896Sep 10, 2026
SaleWalter Lynn Rice JRSVP, Chief Accounting Officer2× since Dec 9, 2025: 3,088 shares, avg. $88.25$272,522Sep 10, 2026
SaleLisa G IglesiasEVP, General Counsel2× since Mar 9, 2026: 7,500 shares, avg. $84.43$633,260Sep 9, 2026
SaleElizabeth Claire AhmedEVP, People & Communications12,000 shares at $80.14$961,680Apr 30, 2026
SaleChristopher W PyneEVP, Group Benefits2× since Nov 7, 2025: 8,852 shares, avg. $74.99$663,784Mar 16, 2026
SaleCynthia EganDirector9,000 shares at $73.00$657,000Feb 18, 2026
SaleSteven Andrew ZabelEVP, Chief Financial Officer7,500 shares at $76.38$572,850Nov 19, 2025
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.3% vs 2.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.5% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Colonial Life technology tools that lift agent productivity form the main strength by supporting earnings growth, while limited durable advantage signals and thin public data mark the core weakness.
Main risk: Ongoing lawsuits and regulatory settlements over claims handling practices in its core group disability business could raise compliance costs and constrain underwriting flexibility.
Bull case: Unum could strengthen its claims processes with AI-driven systems and proactive compliance to reduce litigation exposure while maintaining competitive offerings in employee benefits.
Bear case: Persistent legal challenges and stricter oversight might force higher reserves, limit product features or raise premiums, eroding margins in the disability segment that forms a key part of its portfolio.
Colonial Life has posted earnings growth helped by technology tools that raise agent productivity and support sales. This offsets pressures elsewhere in the business such as the closed block. Will that momentum hold if claims trends in core disability lines turn less favorable in the upcoming results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−17.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)11.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Unum Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNM
Frequently asked questions
Is Unum Group (UNM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $61.88 versus a price of $74.79, about 17% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UNM?
Our model-based fair value for Unum Group is $61.88 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $74.79.
What is the quality score of UNM?
Unum Group has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Unum Group (UNM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $61.88 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $47.45, optimistic scenario $68.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Unum Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $61.88, about 17% lower versus a price of $74.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $47.45, optimistic scenario $68.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Unum Group (UNM)?
Unum Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Unum Group pay a dividend?
Unum Group currently shows a dividend yield of 2.52% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Unum Group (UNM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Unum Group would have to grow free cash flow by +11.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UNM use?
Our models discount Unum Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Unum Group that is +11.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Unum Group (UNM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Unum Group grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies +11.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Unum Group (UNM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Unum Group (+11.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Unum Group (UNM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.64 %: that much free cash flow Unum Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Unum Group (UNM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Unum Group it is $61.88 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $74.79. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Unum Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, UNM trades above its calculated fair value: price $74.79, fair value $61.88, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UNM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($74.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($61.88). For Unum Group the two are $12.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Unum Group worth?
The market values Unum Group at about $14.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $74.79; our models calculate a fair value of $61.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UNM?
Our models span a range for Unum Group: cautious scenario $47.45, base $61.88, optimistic $68.05 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $74.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UNM?
Unum Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $61.88 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 7.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of UNM?
The PEG ratio of Unum Group is 1.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Unum Group (UNM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Unum Group (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UNM from its 52-week high?
Unum Group trades at $74.79, about 23% below its 52-week high of $96.57 and 7% above the low of $69.83 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $61.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Unum Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Unum Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $74.79, calculated fair value $61.88 (−17%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UNM calculated?
We run Unum Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $61.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Unum Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Unum Group (UNM)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $74.79. Our model-based fair value is $61.88, about 17% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Unum Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($68.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Unum Group (UNM) come from?
Earnings per share at Unum Group grew +9.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin +3.0 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Unum Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Unum Group (UNM)?
The market capitalisation of Unum Group is $14.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Unum Group (UNM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Unum Group is 1.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Unum Group (UNM)?
Earnings per share at Unum Group are $4.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Unum Group (UNM)?
The dividend yield of Unum Group is 2.5% (payout 44.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Unum Group (UNM)?
The net margin of Unum Group is 5.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Unum Group (UNM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Unum Group is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Unum Group (UNM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Unum Group is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Unum Group (UNM)?
The operating margin of Unum Group is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Unum Group (UNM)?
Revenue at Unum Group is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Unum Group (UNM)?
Earnings per share at Unum Group are growing −16.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Unum Group (UNM) carry?
The net debt of Unum Group is $3.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026