AIA Group Ltd (1299) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AIA Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$42.80 – HK$91.88 · fair‑value band HK$25.19 – HK$41.98 · the HK$76.75 price screens above the HK$33.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients.
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AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It is also involved in the distribution of investment and other financial services products. It sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
AIA Group Ltd (1299) currently trades at HK$76.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$33.58, implying the stock looks roughly 128.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$5.87 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$76.75 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$4.08, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$25.19 (bear) to HK$41.98 (bull), the price of HK$76.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AIA Group Ltd reported revenue of $32.6B in FY2025 versus $46.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $6.2B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$811B (≈ $103B) · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 3.06 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3309 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 19.2% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −56%, 1299 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$25.19Fair Value HK$33.58Bull HK$41.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+60.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.5%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 23%
2025 sits 81% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 95 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.0× · Pricier than median
P/B2.30× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.79× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF19.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.4× · Pricier than median
PEG1.01× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)30· sector 43
PAST (return on equity)59· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)52· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AIA Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1299
Frequently asked questions
Is AIA Group Ltd (1299) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$33.58 versus a price of HK$76.75, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1299?
Our model-based fair value for AIA Group Ltd is HK$33.58 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$76.75.
What is the quality score of 1299?
AIA Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$33.58 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$25.19, optimistic scenario HK$41.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AIA Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$33.58, about −56% upside versus a price of HK$76.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$25.19, optimistic scenario HK$41.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
AIA Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$26.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does AIA Group Ltd pay a dividend?
AIA Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AIA Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +47.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1299 use?
Our models discount AIA Group Ltd at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AIA Group Ltd that is +47.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AIA Group Ltd (1299) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AIA Group Ltd grew -8.5 % a year. The price currently implies +47.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AIA Group Ltd (1299) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AIA Group Ltd (+47.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.63 %: that much free cash flow AIA Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AIA Group Ltd it is HK$33.58 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of HK$76.75. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AIA Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 1299 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$76.75, fair value HK$33.58, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1299?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$76.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$33.58). For AIA Group Ltd the two are HK$43.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AIA Group Ltd worth?
The market values AIA Group Ltd at about HK$811B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is HK$76.75; our models calculate a fair value of HK$33.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1299?
Our models span a range for AIA Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$25.19, base HK$33.58, optimistic HK$41.98 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price HK$76.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1299?
AIA Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$33.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.3, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 1299?
The PEG ratio of AIA Group Ltd is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Balance-sheet figures for AIA Group Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1299 from its 52-week high?
AIA Group Ltd trades at HK$76.75, about 15% below its 52-week high of HK$90.58 and 18% above the low of HK$64.97 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$33.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AIA Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, Manulife Financial Corporation, Aflac Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AIA Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price HK$76.75, calculated fair value HK$33.58 (−56%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1299 calculated?
We run AIA Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$33.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AIA Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$76.75. Our model-based fair value is HK$33.58, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AIA Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$41.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of AIA Group Ltd (1299) come from?
Earnings per share at AIA Group Ltd grew +6.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin +13.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AIA Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The market capitalisation of AIA Group Ltd is HK$811B (≈ $103B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AIA Group Ltd is 3.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Earnings per share at AIA Group Ltd are HK$0.3309 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The dividend yield of AIA Group Ltd is 2.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The net margin of AIA Group Ltd is 19.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AIA Group Ltd is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AIA Group Ltd is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The operating margin of AIA Group Ltd is 31.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Revenue at AIA Group Ltd is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Earnings per share at AIA Group Ltd are growing +9.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AIA Group Ltd (1299) carry?
The net debt of AIA Group Ltd is HK$11.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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