AIA Group (1299) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$779B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from HK$7.85 to HK$7.88 (+0.4%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +0.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$9.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$42.80 – HK$91.88 · fair‑value band HK$5.91 – HK$9.84 · the HK$73.15 price screens above the HK$7.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
AIA Group (1299) currently trades at HK$73.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.88, implying the stock looks roughly 89.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AIA Group generated revenue of HK$26.2B at a net margin of 23.8%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at HK$11.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$5.91 (bear case) to HK$9.84 (bull case); at HK$73.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at -89%, 1299 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$12.86) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.81). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients.
Full company description
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It is also involved in the distribution of investment and other financial services products. It sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AIA Group reported revenue of HK$32.6B in FY2025 versus HK$46.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$6.2B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
1299 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥38.72 | ¥70.87 | +83% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥49.60 | ¥96.76 | +95% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | C$58.52 | C$45.13 | -23% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$92.34 | C$59.64 | -35% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹438.30 | ₹590.43 | +35% |
| Fubon Financial Holding 2881 | 124.50 TWD | 115.05 TWD | -8% |
| Cathay Financial Holding 2882 | 94.00 TWD | 94.95 TWD | +1% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 337,500 KRW | 166,710 KRW | -51% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥29.75 | ¥59.50 | +100% |
| Prudential plc PUKN | 545.00 MXN | 722.72 MXN | +33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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