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Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc stock $1.05, price $1.84, that is 42.9% below the price, quality 18 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

AM Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc logo Thin data Nov 11, 2026

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc

ADGM · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 43% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +76% vs. a year ago.
Fair value $1.05 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 18/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −0.1 %/yr in USD)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/6)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$271.50 $0.0074 Fair Value $1.05 Feb 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0074 – $271.50 · fair‑value band $0.7900 – $1.32 · the $1.84 price screens above the $1.05 fair value. As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc., a medical technology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of ablation technologies for the treatment of cardiac arrhythmias. It offers treatment for cardiac arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation, and ventricular tachycardia.

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The company's product portfolio includes iCLAS atrial ultra-low temperature ablation (ULTA) catheter and system; vCLAS ventricular ULTC catheter; and Cryopulse pulsed field cryoablation catheters. Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Laguna Hills, California.

Stock analysis

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) currently trades at $1.84, while our estimate is $1.05, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $0.7900 (bear) to $1.32 (bull), the price of $1.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $270K in FY2021. Reported net income was −$25.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $52.7M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−40.53 · Return on equity −658% · Return on assets (EBIT) −192% (5-year average) · Revenue (TTM) $137K · Revenue growth (YoY) +75.6% · Free cash flow −$19.4M · Net debt $4.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 96% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −43%, ADGM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $0.7900 Fair Value $1.05 Bull $1.32
Price $1.84 · Downside -42.9%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 18/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 17
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 37
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • BuyDeborah KasterChief Financial Officer15,000 shares at $1.20$18,000Dec 16, 2025
  • BuyTodd UsenChief Executive Officer, Director207,315 shares at $1.09$225,973Dec 12, 2025

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7,646.3% (2021) → −23,226.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ADGM screens overvalued: fair value 43% below the price. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 402 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −42.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −58.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 75.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.70× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.25× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 44
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)15 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 ¥178.92 ¥202.57 +13% vs ADGM
DexCom, Inc DXCM $79.92 $89.18 +12% vs ADGM
Stryker Corporation SYK $324.29 $358.30 +10% vs ADGM
STERIS plc STE $257.12 $279.53 +9% vs ADGM
Boston Scientific Corporation BSX $44.70 $48.42 +8% vs ADGM
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC $83.65 $69.92 −16% vs ADGM
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW $104.01 $81.94 −21% vs ADGM
Abbott Laboratories, ABT $110.46 $75.28 −32% vs ADGM
Medtronic plc MDT $101.59 $65.61 −35% vs ADGM
Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA €27.06 €15.23 −44% vs ADGM

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Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADGM

Frequently asked questions

Is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $1.05 versus a price of $1.84, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADGM?
Our estimate for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc is $1.05 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.84.
What is the quality score of ADGM?
Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $1.05 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $0.7900, optimistic scenario $1.32. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $1.05, about 43% lower versus a price of $1.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7900, optimistic scenario $1.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $137K (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc it is $1.05 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $1.84.
Is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, ADGM trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.84, fair value $1.05, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.05). For Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc the two are $0.7900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock worth?
The market values Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc at about $52.7M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $1.84; our models calculate a fair value of $1.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADGM?
Our models span a range for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc: cautious scenario $0.7900, base $1.05, optimistic $1.32 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $1.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (as of Nov 11, 2026): debt of 1.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADGM from its 52-week high?
Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc trades at $1.84, about 96% below its 52-week high of $48.90 and 1% above the low of $1.83 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $1.84, calculated fair value $1.05 (−43%), Quality Score 18/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $1.84. Our estimate is $1.05, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
The market capitalisation of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc is $52.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Earnings per share at Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc are $−40.53. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc is −658% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc is −192% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Revenue at Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc is growing +75.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) generate?
The free cash flow of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc is −$19.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) carry?
The net debt of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc is $4.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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