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Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Jul 24, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US00534B1008

AM Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc logo Thin data Jul 24, 2026

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc

ADGM · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $0.3700 · Strongly undervalued (+141.8%)
!Quality 20/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −0.1 %/yr)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 15 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$8.17 $0.1440 Fair Value $0.3700 Aug 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

26‑month range $0.1440 – $8.17 · fair‑value band $0.2800 – $0.5600 · the $0.1530 price screens below the $0.3700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc., a medical technology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of ablation technologies for the treatment of cardiac arrhythmias. It offers treatment for cardiac arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation, and ventricular tachycardia.

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Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc., a medical technology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of ablation technologies for the treatment of cardiac arrhythmias. It offers treatment for cardiac arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation, and ventricular tachycardia. The company's product portfolio includes iCLAS atrial ultra-low temperature ablation (ULTA) catheter and system; vCLAS ventricular ULTC catheter; and Cryopulse pulsed field cryoablation catheters. Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Laguna Hills, California.

Stock analysis

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock (ADGM) currently trades at $0.1530, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3700, implying the stock looks roughly 58.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.2800 (bear) to $0.5600 (bull), the price of $0.1530 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $270K in FY2021. Reported net income was −$25.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $16.9M · EPS (TTM) $−1.32 · Return on equity −269% · Return on assets (EBIT) −192% · Revenue (TTM) $137K · Revenue growth (YoY) +75.6% · Free cash flow −$19.4M · Net debt $4.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 94% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 142%, ADGM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2800 Fair Value $0.3700 Bull $0.5600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.2800 $0.3700 $0.5600 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.2800 $0.3700 $0.5600 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 3
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7,646.3% (2021) → −23,226.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 354 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +156.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −30.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 75.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.70× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.36× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)15 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 38

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Abbott Laboratories, ABT $101.29 $74.79 −26%
Medtronic plc MDT $87.09 $65.61 −25%
Stryker Corporation SYK $278.77 $306.65 +10%
Boston Scientific Corporation BSX $43.92 $48.31 +10%
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW $86.29 $81.94 −5%
Siemens Healthineers AG SHL €37.79 €35.19 −7%
DexCom, Inc DXCM $86.68 $95.35 +10%
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC $66.63 $70.37 +6%
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 ¥153.86 ¥169.25 +10%
Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA €21.87 €15.23 −30%

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Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock · Fair Value
$0.3700 +59%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADGM

Frequently asked questions

Is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3700 versus a price of $0.1530, about +142% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADGM?
Our model-based fair value for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock is $0.3700 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1530.
What is the quality score of ADGM?
Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3700 (as of Jul 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2800, optimistic scenario $0.5600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3700, about +142% upside versus a price of $0.1530 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.2800, optimistic scenario $0.5600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $137K (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock it is $0.3700 per share (as of Jul 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1530. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jul 24, 2026, ADGM trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1530, fair value $0.3700, a gap of about +142% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1530); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3700). For Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock the two are $0.2170 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock worth?
The market values Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock at about $16.9M (market capitalisation, as of Jul 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1530; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADGM?
Our models span a range for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock: cautious scenario $0.2800, base $0.3700, optimistic $0.5600 per share (as of Jul 24, 2026, price $0.1530). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock (as of Jul 24, 2026): return on equity −268.9%, debt of 1.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADGM from its 52-week high?
Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock trades at $0.1530, about 94% below its 52-week high of $2.36 and 6% above the low of $0.1440 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jul 24, 2026: price $0.1530, calculated fair value $0.3700 (+142%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADGM calculated?
We run Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $0.1530. Our model-based fair value is $0.3700, about +142% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (20/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.2800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.2800 to $0.5600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
The market capitalisation of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock is $16.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Earnings per share at Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock are $−1.32. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock is −269% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock is −192% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM)?
Revenue at Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock is growing +75.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) generate?
The free cash flow of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock is −$19.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc (ADGM) carry?
The net debt of Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock is $4.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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