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Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc stock $3.38, price $4.31, that is 21.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US

AP Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc

AVIR · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 22% below what the stock costs today.

Ranks above peers (6/8)
Quality 59/100
Insiders bought $25,437 (6M)
Fair value $3.38 · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue YoY −45.3 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$44.59 $2.55 Fair Value $3.38 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.55 – $44.59 · fair‑value band $2.23 – $4.23 · the $4.31 price screens above the $3.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes oral antiviral therapeutics for patients with serious viral infections.

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Its lead product candidate is the regimen of bemnifosbuvir, a nucleotide NS5B inhibitor, and ruzasvir, an NS5A inhibitor, which is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV). The company also developing AT-587, that is in Phase 1 clinical trial for the treatment of chronic HEV infection.

In addition, it offers a proprietary platform of nucleosides and nucleotides for virology, medicinal chemistry, and antiviral drug development. The company has a license agreement with MSD International GmbH for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of ruzasvir.

Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR) currently trades at $4.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.38, 22% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $2.23 (bear) to $4.23 (bull), the price of $4.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $351M in FY2021. Reported net income was −$158M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $345M Small · P/S ratio 1.86 · EPS (TTM) $−2.09 · Return on equity −58.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.6% (5-year average) · Revenue (TTM) $192M · Revenue growth (YoY) +295% · EPS growth (YoY) +264%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −22%, AVIR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.23 Fair Value $3.38 Bull $4.23
Price $4.31 · Downside -21.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $2.23 $3.38 $4.23 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.23 $3.38 $4.23 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 61
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 90
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 44
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 56
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 97
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $25,437, on May 18, 2026.

  • BuyPolly A. MurphyDirector6,100 shares at $4.17$25,437May 18, 2026

Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AVIR screens overvalued: fair value 22% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/7 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −21.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −50.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 295.2% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.25× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.80× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)5 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Incyte Corporation INCY $119.65 $199.23 +67% vs AVIR
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $904.35 $1,275 +41% vs AVIR
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.09 $601.80 +10% vs AVIR
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,516,000 KRW 1,667,600 KRW +10% vs AVIR
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,527 kr 3,880 +10% vs AVIR
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$47.62 HK$52.38 +10% vs AVIR
argenx SE ARGX $927.21 $908.40 −2% vs AVIR
CSL Limited CSL A$200.77 A$183.04 −9% vs AVIR
Celltrion, Inc 068270 211,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −64% vs AVIR
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $67.30 $19.01 −72% vs AVIR

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Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVIR

Frequently asked questions

Is Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.38 versus a price of $4.31, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVIR?
Our model-based fair value for Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc is $3.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.31.
What is the quality score of AVIR?
Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.23, optimistic scenario $4.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.38, about 22% lower versus a price of $4.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.23, optimistic scenario $4.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $192M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $3.38 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $4.31. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AVIR trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.31, fair value $3.38, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVIR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.38). For Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $0.9300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $345M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $4.31; our models calculate a fair value of $3.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVIR?
Our models span a range for Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $2.23, base $3.38, optimistic $4.23 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $4.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −58.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVIR from its 52-week high?
Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $4.31, about 30% below its 52-week high of $6.15 and 46% above the low of $2.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $4.31, calculated fair value $3.38 (−22%), Quality Score 59/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVIR calculated?
We run Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.31. Our model-based fair value is $3.38, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.23 to $4.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
The market capitalisation of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc is $345M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc is 1.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
Earnings per share at Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−2.09. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc is −58.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc is −25.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
Revenue at Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +295% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR)?
Earnings per share at Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing +264% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR) generate?
The free cash flow of Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc is −$132M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR) hold?
Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $94.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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