Watch BigBearai Holdings Inc for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.

BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BigBearai Holdings Inc stock $1.88, price $2.32, that is 19.0% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

EstimateBear $1.41 to bull $2.35 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 27/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Technology US

Thin data Nov 10, 2026

BigBearai Holdings Inc

BBAI · US

Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 19% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt

Upbeat coverage

Revenue last quarter +32% vs. a year ago.

Insiders sold $43,300 (6M)

Fair value $1.88 · Overvalued

Quality 27/100

Weak Growth (revenue 3y −6.3 %/yr in USD)

Loss-making · -126.8% net margin (TTM)

Negative free cash flow

Trails peers (2/10)

Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data

Thin data

Estimate

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.6330 – $12.69 · fair‑value band $1.41 – $2.35 · the $2.32 price screens above the $1.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity markets.

Show moreShow less

It offers supply chain and logistics solutions, such as Data Conflation at Scale, which offers a view of operations enabling real-time tracking of inventory and facilitating predictive analytics to optimize functions, including routes and delivery times; Discrete Event Simulation, a course of action analysis and digital twin solution; and Next-Gen Decision Support solution for macroeconomic and geopolitical forecasting.

The company also provides cybersecurity solutions, such as artificial intelligence (AI)-powered/machine-accelerated binary analysis, cyber-physical systems vulnerability testing and evaluation, vulnerability assessment as a service, and specialized services for the department of defense and intelligence community; and autonomous systems solutions, AI/machine learning (ML) decision intelligence solutions, and AI orchestration as a service, as well as specialized consulting services.

In addition, it offers digital identity services comprising security solutions specializing in customized digital identity, biometrics, AI/ML, and advanced analytics software and solutions for global trade, travel, and digital identity industries; and Ask Sage Platform, a generative AI platform for secure AI deployment, orchestration, and agentic capabilities across defense, intelligence, and other highly regulated environments.

The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

Stock analysis

BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI) currently trades at $2.32, while our estimate is $1.88, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $1.41 (bear) to $2.35 (bull), the price of $2.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

BigBearai Holdings Inc reported revenue of $128M in FY2025 versus $146M in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$294M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B Small · P/S ratio 7.52 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3200 · Net margin −127% · Return on equity −27.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −28.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −53.0% · Revenue (TTM) $142M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at −19%, BBAI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $1.41 Fair Value $1.88 Bull $2.35

Price $2.32 · Downside -19.0%

Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 20

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 0

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 56

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 50

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 0

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 5

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 2

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 50

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $43,300 and none bought.

SaleSean Raymond RickerChief Financial Officer2× since Dec 4, 2025: 15,000 shares, avg. $5.24$78,600May 22, 2026
SaleDorothy D HayesDirector3× since Nov 18, 2025: 54,000 shares, avg. $4.88$263,290May 8, 2026
SalePamela Joyce BradenDirector80,000 shares at $4.00$320,000Mar 16, 2026

Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 21/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−19.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−6.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.9%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+14.5%

’18

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

−5.0% (2020) → −65.3% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

BBAI screens overvalued: fair value 19% below the price. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype

Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Reports Q3 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates Yahoo Finance · Oct 27, 2026
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for Investors Yahoo Finance · Oct 22, 2026

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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 518 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −19.0% · Below median

Profitability

Return on assets −32.9% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (12 months) −126.8% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (12 months) −53.0% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 31.5% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.15× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.82× · Cheaper than median

P/S (12 months) 7.82× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)8 · sector 32

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 30

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30

HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 97

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 37

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH	$65.00	$139.68	+115%	vs BBAI
Wipro Limited WIPRO	₹199.00	₹287.86	+45%	vs BBAI
Infosys Limited INFY	₹1,154	₹1,655	+43%	vs BBAI
Accenture plc ACN	$258.51	$332.90	+29%	vs BBAI
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS	₹2,475	₹2,993	+21%	vs BBAI
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH	₹1,407	₹1,602	+14%	vs BBAI
Amadeus IT Group AMS	€61.62	€66.57	+8%	vs BBAI
CDW Corporation CDW	$169.36	$165.54	−2%	vs BBAI
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc BR	$192.96	$161.18	−16%	vs BBAI
International Business Machines Corporation IBM	$244.53	$185.39	−24%	vs BBAI

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BigBearai Holdings Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

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Frequently asked questions

Is BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $1.88 versus a price of $2.32, about 19% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of BBAI?

Our estimate for BigBearai Holdings Inc is $1.88 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.32.

What is the quality score of BBAI?

BigBearai Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

Our calculated price target is the estimate of $1.88 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $1.41, optimistic scenario $2.35. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.

What is the BigBearai Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our estimate puts fair value at $1.88, about 19% lower versus a price of $2.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.41, optimistic scenario $2.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

BigBearai Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $142M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BigBearai Holdings Inc it is $1.88 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $2.32.

Is BigBearai Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 10, 2026, BBAI trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.32, fair value $1.88, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BBAI?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.88). For BigBearai Holdings Inc the two are $0.4400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is BigBearai Holdings Inc worth?

The market values BigBearai Holdings Inc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $2.32; our models calculate a fair value of $1.88 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BBAI?

Our models span a range for BigBearai Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $1.41, base $1.88, optimistic $2.35 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $2.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How solid is the balance sheet of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

Balance-sheet figures for BigBearai Holdings Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −27.9%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is BBAI from its 52-week high?

BigBearai Holdings Inc trades at $2.32, about 68% below its 52-week high of $7.17 and 9% above the low of $2.12 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.88 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to BigBearai Holdings Inc?

From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is BigBearai Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $2.32, calculated fair value $1.88 (−19%), Quality Score 27/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. BigBearai Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $2.32. Our estimate is $1.88, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with BigBearai Holdings Inc right now?

Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of BigBearai Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

The market capitalisation of BigBearai Holdings Inc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

The price-to-sales ratio of BigBearai Holdings Inc is 7.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

Earnings per share at BigBearai Holdings Inc are $−0.3200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

The net margin of BigBearai Holdings Inc is −127% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

The return on equity (ROE) of BigBearai Holdings Inc is −27.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BigBearai Holdings Inc is −28.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

The operating margin of BigBearai Holdings Inc is −53.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI)?

Revenue at BigBearai Holdings Inc is growing +31.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How much free cash flow does BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI) generate?

The free cash flow of BigBearai Holdings Inc is −$46.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI) hold?

BigBearai Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $62.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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