Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bank of Nova Scotia stock $75.81, price $93.76, that is 19.1% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $33.99 – $95.41 · fair‑value band $56.85 – $94.76 · the $93.76 price screens above the $75.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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The Bank of Nova Scotia provides various banking products and services in Canada, the United States, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Colombia, the Caribbean and Central America, and internationally.
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It operates through Canadian Banking, International Banking, Global Wealth Management, and Global Banking and Markets segments.
The company offers financial advice and solutions, and banking products, including debit and credit cards, chequing and saving accounts, investments, mortgages, loans, and insurance to individuals; and retail automotive financing solutions.
It also provides business banking solutions comprising lending, deposit, cash management, and trade finance solutions to small, medium, and large businesses.
In addition, it provides wealth management advice and solutions, including online brokerage, mobile investment, full-service brokerage, trust, private banking, and private investment counsel services; and retail mutual funds, exchange traded funds, liquid alternatives, and institutional funds.
The company was founded in 1832 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) currently trades at $93.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $75.81, 19.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $71.50 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $93.76 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $38.93, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $56.85 (bear) to $94.76 (bull), the price of $93.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bank of Nova Scotia reported revenue of $73.2B in FY2025 versus $30.9B in FY2021, a compound +24.0%/yr. Reported net income was $7.8B in FY2025, compounding −5.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $113B Large · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) $5.52 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −19%, BNS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$56.85Fair Value $75.81Bull$94.76
Price $93.76 · Downside -19.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+148.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.4% vs 7.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−19.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.3% a year for the price and −21.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale advantages of a large diversified bank are offset by commoditized metrics little differentiation from peers and replicable processes that deliver only average profitability.
Main risk: Challenger banks such as EQ Bank, Neo Financial and Wealthsimple together with open banking rules could draw retail customers away from Scotiabank and pressure fees or margins in its core Canadian operations.
Bull case: Scotiabank could deepen its AI-driven efficiency gains and selective LATAM partnerships to defend margins while capturing more Canadian market share through superior digital offerings.
Bear case: Persistent fintech competition combined with ongoing regulatory exits could shrink Scotiabank's international footprint and Canadian retail base, leaving it with lower overall scale and thinner margins.
Scotiabank is preparing a significant risk transfer on roughly two billion dollars of large corporate loans. The transaction could free up capital and trim credit exposure ahead of year-end, but it also points to active balance sheet management in a diversified banking model. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Does this de-risking build durable resilience or simply defer pressures in the underlying loan portfolio?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−19.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.5% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)28.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)41.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank of Nova Scotia Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BNS
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $75.81 versus a price of $93.76, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BNS?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of Nova Scotia is $75.81 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $93.76.
What is the quality score of BNS?
Bank of Nova Scotia has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $75.81 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.85, optimistic scenario $94.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank of Nova Scotia stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $75.81, about 19% lower versus a price of $93.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $56.85, optimistic scenario $94.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
Bank of Nova Scotia reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $35.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Bank of Nova Scotia pay a dividend?
Bank of Nova Scotia currently shows a dividend yield of 4.74% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank of Nova Scotia would have to grow free cash flow by +29.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.5 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BNS use?
Our models discount Bank of Nova Scotia at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.19, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank of Nova Scotia that is +29.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank of Nova Scotia grew +18.5 % a year. The price currently implies +29.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank of Nova Scotia (+29.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.17 %: that much free cash flow Bank of Nova Scotia produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank of Nova Scotia it is $75.81 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $93.76. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank of Nova Scotia stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, BNS trades above its calculated fair value: price $93.76, fair value $75.81, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BNS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($93.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($75.81). For Bank of Nova Scotia the two are $17.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank of Nova Scotia worth?
The market values Bank of Nova Scotia at about $113B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $93.76; our models calculate a fair value of $75.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BNS?
Our models span a range for Bank of Nova Scotia: cautious scenario $56.85, base $75.81, optimistic $94.76 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $93.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BNS?
Bank of Nova Scotia trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $75.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.3, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 20.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BNS?
The PEG ratio of Bank of Nova Scotia is 1.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank of Nova Scotia (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 2.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BNS from its 52-week high?
Bank of Nova Scotia trades at $93.76, about 2% below its 52-week high of $95.41 and 49% above the low of $62.88 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $75.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank of Nova Scotia?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank of Nova Scotia stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $93.76, calculated fair value $75.81 (−19%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BNS calculated?
We run Bank of Nova Scotia through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $75.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank of Nova Scotia itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $93.76. Our model-based fair value is $75.81, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank of Nova Scotia right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank of Nova Scotia grew +5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin −5.7 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank of Nova Scotia
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
The market capitalisation of Bank of Nova Scotia is $113B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank of Nova Scotia is 1.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Nova Scotia are $5.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
The dividend yield of Bank of Nova Scotia is 4.7% (payout 80.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
The net margin of Bank of Nova Scotia is 10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank of Nova Scotia is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank of Nova Scotia is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
The operating margin of Bank of Nova Scotia is 41.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
Revenue at Bank of Nova Scotia is growing +11.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Nova Scotia are growing +23.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) carry?
The net debt of Bank of Nova Scotia is $438B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 86.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026