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Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (601398) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 2.6T CNY

IA Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 · SHG
Price¥7.57
Fair Value¥13.44
Upside+77.5%
Quality57/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 55.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.13% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 66/100
Evidence: High Range ¥10.08 – ¥16.80 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from ¥12.89 to ¥13.44 (+4.3%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +4.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 78% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥10.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥8.15 ¥3.33 Fair Value ¥13.44 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.33 – ¥8.15 · fair‑value band ¥10.08 – ¥16.80 · the ¥7.57 price screens below the ¥13.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (601398) currently trades at ¥7.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.44, implying the stock looks roughly 77.5% undervalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited generated revenue of 673B CNY at a net margin of 55.2%. Revenue grew 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at 6.6T CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥10.08 (bear case) to ¥16.80 (bull case); at ¥7.57, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 78%, 601398 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥13.61 ¥17.56 ¥24.48 80
Residual Income ¥9.78 ¥10.80 ¥16.36 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥14.99 ¥20.17 ¥26.59 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥13.59 ¥17.68 ¥24.82 38
Owner Earnings ¥21.16 ¥31.04 ¥48.26 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥14.99 ¥20.31 ¥27.47 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥17.75 ¥25.83 ¥35.83 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥19.60 ¥29.51 ¥40.65 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥14.22 ¥19.16 ¥26.54 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥16.33 ¥23.22 ¥33.48 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥17.57 ¥25.93 ¥37.48 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥7.03 ¥28.90 ¥39.36 54
Lynch FV ¥7.27 ¥10.38 ¥13.50 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.27 ¥10.38 ¥13.50 46
EPV ¥18.62 ¥20.46 ¥22.09 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.89 ¥8.48 ¥14.27 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.89 ¥6.95 ¥8.84 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥15.51 ¥20.68 ¥25.85 63
P/S Multiple ¥8.12 ¥10.83 ¥13.54 58
P/B Multiple ¥13.18 ¥17.58 ¥21.97 55
EV/EBIT ¥24.29 ¥29.65 ¥35.01 53
EV/EBITDA ¥20.77 ¥24.96 ¥29.14 54
EV/Revenue ¥15.80 ¥19.05 ¥22.30 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.58 ¥7.47 ¥11.15 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥13.61 ¥17.56 ¥24.48 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥14.99 ¥20.17 ¥26.59 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥9.78 ¥10.80 ¥16.36 76
ROIC Compounder ¥19.68 ¥23.10 ¥27.25 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥12.19 ¥17.41 ¥22.63 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥23.22) versus Dividend Discount (¥6.95). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 673B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.4%
Net margin 55.2%
Return on equity 8.9%
Free cash flow 147B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 7.4
More key figures
Operating margin 65.7%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.01
Dividend yield 4.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.3%
Net debt 6.6T CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 49
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 95
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments.

Full company description

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans, trade financing, deposit-taking activities, corporate wealth management services, custody services, and various types of corporate intermediary services, as well as corporate loans to corporations, government agencies, and financial institutions. Its Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit-taking activities, card business, personal wealth management services, and various types of personal intermediary services to individual customers. The Treasury Operations segment engages in money market transactions, investment securities, and foreign exchange transaction activities. In addition, the company is involved in the fund raising, fund sales, asset management, and other businesses; financial leasing; insurance businesses, such as life, health, and accident insurance, as well as reinsurance; debt-for-equity swaps; and issuance of wealth management products, wealth management advisory, and consulting services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited reported revenue of ¥1.5T in FY2025 versus ¥658B in FY2021, a compound +23.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥369B in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.5T CNY
Latest YoY
+133.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+32.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+20.8%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y)
+13.1%
Revenue +23.8%/yr
FY21 ¥658B
FY22 ¥663B
FY23 ¥658B
FY24 ¥660B
FY25 ¥1.5T
Net income +1.4%/yr
FY21 ¥348B
FY22 ¥361B
FY23 ¥364B
FY24 ¥366B
FY25 ¥369B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601398

Peer Group

Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Below median
Fair Value upside +78% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 55% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 66% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.19× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.67× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.93× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.37× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 36
FUTURE 17 · sector 25
PAST 36 · sector 42
HEALTH 91 · sector 52
DIVIDEND 83 · sector 67

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $341.10 $278.99 -18%
Bank of America Corporation BAC $59.67 $55.89 -6%
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥10.16 ¥17.20 +69%
HSBC Holdings HSBC $100.52 $84.67 -16%
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥6.37 ¥11.85 +86%
Royal Bank of Canada RY C$305.74 C$190.48 -38%
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥5.88 ¥9.80 +67%
Wells Fargo & Company WFCS C$23.58 C$27.40 +16%
Banco Santander, S.A SAN 51.02 PLN 55.60 PLN +9%
UBS Group UBSN 939.75 MXN 534.84 MXN -43%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (601398) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.44 versus a price of ¥7.57, about +78% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601398?
Our model-based fair value for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited is ¥13.44 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥7.57.
What is the quality score of 601398?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has a Quality Score of 57/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (601398)?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 673B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601398?
The net profit margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited is about 55.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 55.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited pay a dividend?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.29% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 15, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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