Burford Capital Limited (BUR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Burford Capital Limited stock £5.06, price £2.58, upside +96.1%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.23 – £12.93 · fair‑value band £4.93 – £5.42 · the £2.58 price screens below the £5.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Services.
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The Principal Finance segment provides capital against the underlying value of high-value single or multiple litigation and arbitration matters at any stage of the process from before filing to after a final judgment has been entered; and to a law firm that has agreed to take a case on a contingent fee or alternative fee basis, as well as directly to the client.
This segment also offers legal risk management and adverse legal cost insurance services. The Asset Management and Other Services segment manages legal finance assets on behalf of third-party investors, as well as provides other services to the legal industry.
The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
Stock analysis
Burford Capital Limited (BUR) currently trades at £2.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.06, implying the stock looks roughly 49% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £15.48 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the £2.58 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £1.48, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £4.93 (bear) to £5.42 (bull), the price of £2.58 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Burford Capital Limited reported revenue of $340M in FY2025 versus −$12.8M in FY2021. Reported net income was $62.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap £581M Small · EPS (TTM) £−5.70 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity −69.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 69.3% · Revenue (TTM) −£1.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 96%, BUR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£4.93Fair Value £5.06Bull£5.42
Price £2.58 · Upside +96.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.13/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.2% vs −1.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 25%
Compare Burford Capital Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 631 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+96.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)18.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)69.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)127.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Burford Capital Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BUR.LSE
Frequently asked questions
Is Burford Capital Limited (BUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £5.06 versus the last price from Oct 29, 2026 of £2.58, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BUR?
Our model-based fair value for Burford Capital Limited is £5.06 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 29, 2026): £2.58.
What is the quality score of BUR?
Burford Capital Limited has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £5.06 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario £4.93, optimistic scenario £5.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Burford Capital Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £5.06, about +96% upside versus the last price from Oct 29, 2026 of £2.58 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £4.93, optimistic scenario £5.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Burford Capital Limited pay a dividend?
Burford Capital Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 2.44% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Burford Capital Limited (BUR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Burford Capital Limited pays a dividend of £0.063 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.4%. The last ex-dividend date was May 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 44.7% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Burford Capital Limited it is £5.06 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of £2.58. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Burford Capital Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, BUR trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.58, fair value £5.06, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BUR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£5.06). For Burford Capital Limited the two are £2.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Burford Capital Limited worth?
The market values Burford Capital Limited at about £581M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is £2.58; our models calculate a fair value of £5.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BUR?
Our models span a range for Burford Capital Limited: cautious scenario £4.93, base £5.06, optimistic £5.42 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price £2.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Burford Capital Limited (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −69.8%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BUR from its 52-week high?
Burford Capital Limited trades at £2.58, about 68% below its 52-week high of £8.04 and 16% above the low of £2.23 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £5.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Burford Capital Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Burford Capital Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price £2.58, calculated fair value £5.06 (+96%), Quality Score 39/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BUR calculated?
We run Burford Capital Limited through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £5.06 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Burford Capital Limited currently trades 49% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 29, 2026 and stands at £2.58. Our model-based fair value is £5.06, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Burford Capital Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£4.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band (£4.93 to £5.42), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Burford Capital Limited (BUR) come from?
Earnings per share at Burford Capital Limited grew +14.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.8 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Burford Capital Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
The market capitalisation of Burford Capital Limited is £581M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Earnings per share at Burford Capital Limited are £−5.70. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
The dividend yield of Burford Capital Limited is 2.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
The net margin of Burford Capital Limited is 18.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Burford Capital Limited is −69.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Burford Capital Limited is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
The operating margin of Burford Capital Limited is 69.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Burford Capital Limited (BUR) generate?
Burford Capital Limited generates revenue of −£1.4B (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Revenue at Burford Capital Limited is growing +127% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Earnings per share at Burford Capital Limited are growing −97.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Burford Capital Limited (BUR) generate?
The free cash flow of Burford Capital Limited is −$29.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Burford Capital Limited (BUR) carry?
The net debt of Burford Capital Limited is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 10, 2026