Burford Capital Limited (BUR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Burford Capital Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Below-average quality, trading 36% below our fair value of £5.02.
As of Aug 20, 2026, the fair value of Burford Capital Limited is £5.02 per share against a price of £3.20, so the fair value sits 57% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·3.91% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: LowRange £3.73 to £5.02
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £6.23 to £5.02 (−19.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +2.6% over the past month.
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What matters now
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£3.73). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.96 – £12.93 · fair‑value band £3.73 – £5.02 · the £3.20 price screens below the £5.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Burford Capital Limited (BUR) currently trades at £3.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.02, implying the stock looks roughly 36.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of £10.00 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the £3.20 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £1.63, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Revenue declined 75.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −68.4%. Net debt stands at £1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Scenario range: £3.73 (bear) to £5.02 (bull), the price of £3.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at 57%, BUR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence£7.53£7.11£5.3974
Owner Earnings£3.62£7.85£15.7069
Gordon GGM£0.9900£1.79£2.4666
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings£3.62£7.85£15.7069
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd£1.94£13.55£19.0161
Lynch FV£7.00£10.00£13.0059
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM£0.9900£1.79£2.4666
DDM Multi-Stage£0.9900£1.63£1.9165
Multiples
P/E Multiple£2.78£3.71£4.6463
P/B Multiple£3.64£4.86£6.0755
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)£5.59£7.49£11.1854
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence£7.53£7.11£5.3974
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (£10.00) versus Dividend Discount (£1.63). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
EPS (TTM)£−5.44
Dividend yield3.9%
Net margin18.4%FY2025
Return on equity−68.4%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)4.4%avg 5y
Operating margin91.3%TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM)−1.4B GBXTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−75.3%3y avg +7.9%
EPS growth (YoY)+62.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−29.9M GBXFY2025
Net debt1.6B GBXFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality33/100
Of which business quality 33
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility28
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance65
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Services.
Full company description
Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Services. The Principal Finance segment provides capital against the underlying value of high-value single or multiple litigation and arbitration matters at any stage of the process from before filing to after a final judgment has been entered; and to a law firm that has agreed to take a case on a contingent fee or alternative fee basis, as well as directly to the client. This segment also offers legal risk management and adverse legal cost insurance services. The Asset Management and Other Services segment manages legal finance assets on behalf of third-party investors, as well as provides other services to the legal industry. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Burford Capital Limited reported revenue of $340M in FY2025 versus −$12.8M in FY2021. Reported net income was $62.6M in FY2025.
Growth Quality 13/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£340M
Latest YoY
−28.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−15.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−19.2%
Dividend yield3.9%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −19.2% vs 10Y −1.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.65.9% (2020) → 24.7% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop127% (2021) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in GBP
Revenue
FY21−$12.8M
FY22$271M
FY23$1.1B
FY24$472M
FY25$340M
Net income
FY21−$56.4M
FY22$30.5M
FY23$611M
FY24$146M
FY25$62.6M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+14.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share+20.8 %
of which total revenue +21.7 % · buybacks/dilution −0.8 %
EBIT margin−1.2 %
Tax rate−0.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−3.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 40
FUTURE0· sector 18
PAST0· sector 24
HEALTH87· sector 95
DIVIDEND78· sector 79
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Is Burford Capital Limited (BUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £5.02 versus a price of £3.20, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BUR?
Our model-based fair value for Burford Capital Limited is £5.02 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.20.
What is the quality score of BUR?
Burford Capital Limited has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £5.02 (as of Aug 20, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario £3.73, optimistic scenario £5.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Burford Capital Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £5.02, about +57% upside versus a price of £3.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £3.73, optimistic scenario £5.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the net profit margin of BUR?
The net profit margin of Burford Capital Limited is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Burford Capital Limited pay a dividend?
Burford Capital Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.91% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Burford Capital Limited it is £5.02 per share (as of Aug 20, 2026), against a price of £3.20. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Burford Capital Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 20, 2026, BUR trades below its calculated fair value: price £3.20, fair value £5.02, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BUR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£5.02). For Burford Capital Limited the two are £1.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Burford Capital Limited worth?
The market values Burford Capital Limited at about 718M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Aug 20, 2026). Per share that is £3.20; our models calculate a fair value of £5.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BUR?
Our models span a range for Burford Capital Limited: cautious scenario £3.73, base £5.02, optimistic £5.02 per share (as of Aug 20, 2026, price £3.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Burford Capital Limited (BUR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Burford Capital Limited (as of Aug 20, 2026): return on equity −68.4%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Burford Capital Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Investor AB, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Burford Capital Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 20, 2026: price £3.20, calculated fair value £5.02 (+57%), Quality Score 33/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BUR calculated?
We run Burford Capital Limited through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £5.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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